The COVID-19 pandemic rages on, with the U.S. remaining one of the worst-hit parts of the globe. Other nations have contained the virus or are dealing with more isolated outbreaks. There's no clear end in site for the crisis. The global economy remains gripped by uncertainty and hobbled by measures necessary to contain the spread of the virus.
It's in this context that CBRE is releasing its Global Real Estate Market Outlook 2020 Mid-Year Review report. As it did with its 2020 Real Estate Market Outlook, CBRE has provided NREI an advance look at the report. The slideshow walks through the firm's observations with interactive versions of the charts published in the report.
All told, CBRE's conclusion is that the rebound for commercial real estate will lag that of the overall economy, with recovery in most commercial real estate sectors expected to start this year and continue through 2021. The firm foresees the industrial and logistics and multifamily sectors bouncing back more rapidly than other sectors. The acceleration of the shift to more e-commerce will boost industrial and logistics, while overall demographic trends will push more people to rent apartments, boosting multifamily fundamentals.
The office, hotel and retail sectors, meanwhille, will have tougher roads ahead. It remains unclear how working patterns and space usage will shift long-term for the office sector. The recovery for hotels is indelibly tied to the return of both business and group travel, which will remain subdued until the virus is contained. And the industrial sector's gain in e-commerce is ultimately the retail sector's loss.
“The blows that the pandemic dealt to the global economy this year were swift and significant, but we’re now set for a strong recovery starting in this year’s second half and extending through 2021,” Richard Barkham, CBRE global chief economist and head of Americas research, said in a statement. "Additional rounds of government stimulus are in the works to bolster economies, but let’s be clear, it will take years for commercial real estate activity levels to return fully to pre-pandemic levels. The recession likely will keep interest rates low for several years, which will maintain the flow of capital into commercial real estate. The arrival of a vaccine will greatly accelerate the recovery in real estate, but we can’t bank on that yet.”
The following gallery includes detailed insights from the report.