Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, and Guggenheim’s Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group analyze the 10 macroeconomic trends likely to shape monetary policy and investment performance as we head toward a recession in 2020.
This collection of charts presents 10 of the macroeconomic trends we believe are most likely to shape the investment environment in 2019.
1. The Fed Will Pause to Start 2019
2.Stocks Will Rebound in Response to a Fed Pause and Surpass Their Highs
3. A Fed Pause Will Allow Excesses to Become More Pronounced
4. A Historically Tight Labor Market Will Ultimately Call for More Fed Hikes
5. 10-Year Treasury Yields Will Rebound as the Outlook Improves
6. U.S. Economic Growth Will Cool as Rising Rates Weigh on Consumption
7. Recession Will Be Avoided in 2019, but Watch Out for 2020
8. Credit Spreads Will Widen as Recession Fears Mount
9. The U.S. Corporate Default Rate Will Rise
10. U.S. Political Battles Will Undermine Confidence and Increase Risk Premia