Financial advisors’ confidence in both the economy and the markets ticked down in December, as survey respondents anticipate rising interest rates, the impact of a global slowdown and an overbought stock market.
REACTION FROM OUR PANELISTS
“The concern should be centered around rising rates, more specifically around the volatility in the yield curve,” Eric Kirste, Iron Financial.
“Index fund fund flows are at all time highs once again, mirroring 2000 and 2008, both prior bull market peaks. This ostensibly begs the question, ‘is what's past prologue’?” Paul Bennett, United Capital Private Wealth Counseling.
“With the large stock US market priced for good news, a short-term decline beginning shortly after the new year should surprise no one,” Paul Bryon Hill, Professional Financial Comprehensive Wealth Management.
“Among many things, we monitor the ECRI weekly leading index. It turned down drastically several weeks ago and its growth rate went negative about a month ago. We believe inflation is heading lower along with L/T bond yields which seems to bolster our view that the economy will slow. However, we are tactical managers, so we do consider ourselves market direction agnostic,” Steve Rumsey, Optimus Advisory Group.
“Although the US economy is improving, headwinds exist in some foreign and emerging market segments, and the timing of a rise in rates from the Federal Reserve. These influences may hamper further price appreciate on in the markets from these levels in the next 3-6 months,” John Maffei, MFM Capital Management.