March 9, 2009 s and p 666 history
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we are not out of the woods yet. This is almost exactly what happend after the 1929 crash
In fall of '29 market fell 45% from it’s alltime high. Then it rallied 47% in the spring of 1930. But then it began another downward spiral ending up 87% below it’s alltime high.
Recently, we ended up 55% below all time high, then rallied 40% from that point.
No way we revisit 666 on the SP500. Does anyone remember early March? Bank Nationalization, the New Depression. The Depression is nothing like this…there were no runs on the banks, no 25% unemployment, the govt isn’t raising interest rates. I agree with you on this one A b
You assume the recession is over. And you forget that by any historical standards, the market is very expensive on a bottoms-up basis. It’s easy to look at big-name stocks that are down 60, 70%, but with a P/E that is infinity, are they really a bargain?
When housing prices stop falling, you’ll see a recovery. Maybe. A modest one.
Me? I’d rather be late than early. My clients are up 28% on the year, doing a lot of covered call writing. We were down 15% last year. But when it comes to picking a market low, it only really counts if that was the day you were buying in.
we are in a depression. This is just the begining of the housing slide. We haven’t begun to see the shock and awe of how low housing will go. We will go down another 25% in housing (there are 15 million empty houses in this country right now, what will that be in 6 months to a year?)
As for the stock market, I don’t know what’s priced in.
[quote=A b]
We lived through one of the most amazing days in market history. March 9, 2009. 666 low You will not see this level on s and p or the dow for the rest of your career. You will look at levels on many names and tell young FA's about "2009" like old fart FA's spoke of 74. You will kick yourself over and over. Why the F didnt I buy X at $x? You will forget the tightness of your butthole on that day. So much cash. So many missed this move. Its a wonderful thing its going so much higher then u would ever imagaine. after that run-all bets off. [/quote] you are spot-on. and teh bearish responses are PERFECT. we will climb this wall of worry much. much hugher (like 82) f obama f the us consumer f the deficits USA has HAD its day in the sun. Winds of change blowing. The TRUE story began about 8 years ago........the MASSIVE global economy. You will look back and say, man subprime was one hell of an opportunity to BUY THE NEW MASSIVE global economy. competition for global resources-better get in.march, 9, 2009 intra day s and p 500 hit 666. closed at 676. dow was up 379 next day and never looked backBy the way, the low was March 6. I predict we will retest the lows by Nov.
True enough. And the reason they had "so much cash" is that they had sold long before the market scraped bottom.
Did you call the top, as confidently as you assert--in retrospect--that 666 is the low?
[quote=Bodysurf]
So much cash. So many missed this move. Its a wonderful thing * * * *True enough. And the reason they had "so much cash" is that they had sold long before the market scraped bottom.
Did you call the top, as confidently as you assert--in retrospect--that 666 is the low?
[/quote] we stay with world class US large cap names. some of our top holdings c mer ge leh fnm fre aig bac txt aa we allocate some fund to a Maddof feeder fund (VERY consistent) we us Stanford for our fixed income (cd's) we stay fully invested
Good one
Have you considered adding some fixed-income to the portfolio? Maybe some investment-grade mortgage bonds? CDO’s? You wouldn’t believe where some of this AAA-rated paper is trading! The yields are unbelievable!! Don’t be left out!
Actually, that stuff cheap now Wilber Ross, larry fink et al will ton it.Good one
Have you considered adding some fixed-income to the portfolio? Maybe some investment-grade mortgage bonds? CDO’s? You wouldn’t believe where some of this AAA-rated paper is trading! The yields are unbelievable!! Don’t be left out!
Honestly the big difference in the great depression and the reason we really had 2 1929 and then again in 1933 was the government stopped spending money and interest rates were rising. Exactly the opposite today. While we may not be out of the woods, no one predicted that 1982 would start the largest expansion in market history. ALL the news was bad, but it was time for things to go up. WHY? Because 1966-1981 was terrible. WHY was that period terrible, b/c the lates 40’s into the 60’s was pretty good. ANY why was it pretty good, b/c 1929-1941 was terrible. If you wait for a reason for it to get better, you may never find it.
Honestly the big difference in the great depression and the reason we really had 2 1929 and then again in 1933 was the government stopped spending money and interest rates were rising. Exactly the opposite today. While we may not be out of the woods, no one predicted that 1982 would start the largest expansion in market history. ALL the news was bad, but it was time for things to go up. WHY? Because 1966-1981 was terrible. WHY was that period terrible, b/c the lates 40’s into the 60’s was pretty good. ANY why was it pretty good, b/c 1929-1941 was terrible. If you wait for a reason for it to get better, you may never find it.
We're doing what Japan did in early 1990s with low rates and quantitative easing. Their stock market is currently 74% lower than it was 20 years ago.
Their home prices are also 70% lower than their all time highs.
Japan is the 2nd largest economy in the world
2008 List by the International Monetary Fund
1 United States
2 Japan
3 People's Republic of China
4 Germany
5 France
[quote=WORLD PEACE] japan is 2
is jap market still off 74% from 20 yrs ago?
yikes [/quote]
in march japan’s market was 81% lower than it’s high in 1989. now it’s 74% lower than it’s all time high
nikkei all time high 38,915 1989
9876 now
Part of it is because the Japanese consumer doesnt spend any money. The national savings rate is about 25% in Japan. Now, I am not saying the US consumer is perfect but we as a nation love to spend money and in recent years, spend money we didnt have. BUT, the consumer will come back. Japanese folks will NEVER spend like that and thats why their economy sucks.