You are all 1-2 years in the biz, so I will make this easy…

  Technical- 1.waning volume on the upside.                 2.Most stocks that have gone up have cut their short positions in half. ( tons of covering)  3.Less cash on the sidelines by money managers than at the peak in 2007                 4. The leaders of this rally are all ready rolling over and without your tax dollars would all ready be bankrupt    Fundamental- less inventory, more job losses, no more govt programs, lack of consumption, lack of credit, god I am not going to continue. Figure it out.   As for bad grammar, you won't care about that in 6 months. I will still be here and you won't.   Oh and Moron ( Morean ) How much money has the DOW made since 1930? Just curious?

Why is it that whenever we as a group find a new troll on these boards taking shots at us, we indulge them? Nancy did the same thing, came on here, threw insults at us and we let her continue to do it by responding to her. This guys existence shouldnt even be acknowledged here. Whats his purpose for coming on? Says he “doesnt want to insult anyone” yet thats all he does, in every post. On the rare occasion that he does throw a compliment, its backhanded and he makes it sound like its coming from God himself.

And we actually acknowledge these guys?

[quote=Sportsfreakbob]Why is it that whenever we as a group find a new troll on these boards taking shots at us, we indulge them? Nancy did the same thing, came on here, threw insults at us and we let her continue to do it by responding to her. This guys existence shouldnt even be acknowledged here. Whats his purpose for coming on? Says he “doesnt want to insult anyone” yet thats all he does, in every post. On the rare occasion that he does throw a compliment, its backhanded and he makes it sound like its coming from God himself.

And we actually acknowledge these guys?[/quote] Recheck your facts. you tell me who threw the first jab. I have made fun of one person. That's it. I will not repeat that error.

[quote=howboutshoeshine]This is my first post.  I have read this from timt to time over the years and find it hilarious. Most on here claim they have 30 mil AUM. Yeah right!!! The way you guys talk it would be shocking if you had 5. I don’t care what you think about the market because you live in fantasy land. When this is over, none of you will care to post anymore!

  http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=.spx&sid=0&o_symb=.spx&freq=2&time=20 This chart is to scale. ( If you know what that means ) Find a time like this??? I dare you to spew wholesaler crap at me! And don't talk to me about a rally. we are 25-30% below the highs, which means all of you are as well. I know this because there is no way any of you manage money. You use mutual funds, managers etc. and they are all DOWN!!![/quote]   See above douche (correct spelling) - that is the first post on this thread. I believe it was posted by you. If its not a jab, what would you call it, a friendly invitation to intelligent conversation? or maybe its just your way of flirting with us. Don't bother to reply, i dont intend to communicate with you or respond to your posts directly or indirectly in any way.  Who's your daddy? (don't answer, even if you DO know)  

[quote=Sportsfreakbob][quote=howboutshoeshine]This is my first post.  I have read this from timt to time over the years and find it hilarious. Most on here claim they have 30 mil AUM. Yeah right!!! The way you guys talk it would be shocking if you had 5. I don’t care what you think about the market because you live in fantasy land. When this is over, none of you will care to post anymore!

  http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=.spx&sid=0&o_symb=.spx&freq=2&time=20 This chart is to scale. ( If you know what that means ) Find a time like this??? I dare you to spew wholesaler crap at me! And don't talk to me about a rally. we are 25-30% below the highs, which means all of you are as well. I know this because there is no way any of you manage money. You use mutual funds, managers etc. and they are all DOWN!!![/quote]   See above douche (correct spelling) - that is the first post on this thread. I believe it was posted by you. If its not a jab, what would you call it, a friendly invitation to intelligent conversation? or maybe its just your way of flirting with us. Don't bother to reply, i dont intend to communicate with you or respond to your posts directly or indirectly in any way.  Who's your daddy? (don't answer, even if you DO know)   [/quote]   I call it like I see it. You have said nothing of consequense, so why are you here? No one has answered a single market question posed or had any intelligent response. I came here trying to save some hard working people their life savings. ( I do not speak of you, I am talking about your clients ) Oh....and don't worry about mine. My head is not buried in the sand. Ever wonder why your grandparents would never touch a stock? It's because they have seen the fallout that is quickly approaching and know more about the market than you ever will. And here it is.......The smart investor takes from the stupid one!!! booya! Diversification and long term hold is....well.......I think you see what I'm saying.  As I said in the first post "I don't care what you think about the market because you live in fantasy land. When this is over, none of you will care to post anymore! "

[quote=howboutshoeshine] [quote=Sportsfreakbob][quote=howboutshoeshine]This is my first post. I have read this from timt to time over the years and find it hilarious. Most on here claim they have 30 mil AUM. Yeah right!!! The way you guys talk it would be shocking if you had 5. I don’t care what you think about the market because you live in fantasy land. When this is over, none of you will care to post anymore!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=.spx&sid=0&o_symb=.spx&freq=2&time=20

This chart is to scale. ( If you know what that means ) Find a time like this??? I dare you to spew wholesaler crap at me! And don’t talk to me about a rally. we are 25-30% below the highs, which means all of you are as well. I know this because there is no way any of you manage money. You use mutual funds, managers etc. and they are all DOWN!!![/quote]





See above douche (correct spelling) - that is the first post on this thread. I believe it was posted by you. If its not a jab, what would you call it, a friendly invitation to intelligent conversation? or maybe its just your way of flirting with us.

Don’t bother to reply, i dont intend to communicate with you or respond to your posts directly or indirectly in any way.

Who’s your daddy? (don’t answer, even if you DO know)

[/quote]



I call it like I see it. You have said nothing of consequense, so why are you here? No one has answered a single market question posed or had any intelligent response. I came here trying to save some hard working people their life savings. ( I do not speak of you, I am talking about your clients ) Oh…and don’t worry about mine. My head is not buried in the sand. Ever wonder why your grandparents would never touch a stock? It’s because they have seen the fallout that is quickly approaching and know more about the market than you ever will. And here it is…The smart investor takes from the stupid one!!! booya! Diversification and long term hold is…well…I think you see what I’m saying. As I said in the first post "I don’t care what you think about the market because you live in fantasy land. When this is over, none of you will care to post anymore! "[/quote]



I believe him. He has too many awesome insights to not be the real deal. Especially on the options market. This dude a player and a big producer

Ive learned a great deal from you howbout. Keep the great stuff coming!

[quote=howboutshoeshine] [quote=Sportsfreakbob][quote=howboutshoeshine]This is my first post. I have read this from timt to time over the years and find it hilarious. Most on here claim they have 30 mil AUM. Yeah right!!! The way you guys talk it would be shocking if you had 5. I don’t care what you think about the market because you live in fantasy land. When this is over, none of you will care to post anymore!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=.spx&sid=0&o_symb=.spx&freq=2&time=20

This chart is to scale. ( If you know what that means ) Find a time like this??? I dare you to spew wholesaler crap at me! And don’t talk to me about a rally. we are 25-30% below the highs, which means all of you are as well. I know this because there is no way any of you manage money. You use mutual funds, managers etc. and they are all DOWN!!![/quote]





See above douche (correct spelling) - that is the first post on this thread. I believe it was posted by you. If its not a jab, what would you call it, a friendly invitation to intelligent conversation? or maybe its just your way of flirting with us.

Don’t bother to reply, i dont intend to communicate with you or respond to your posts directly or indirectly in any way.

Who’s your daddy? (don’t answer, even if you DO know)

[/quote]



I call it like I see it. You have said nothing of consequense, so why are you here? No one has answered a single market question posed or had any intelligent response. I came here trying to save some hard working people their life savings. ( I do not speak of you, I am talking about your clients ) Oh…and don’t worry about mine. My head is not buried in the sand. Ever wonder why your grandparents would never touch a stock? It’s because they have seen the fallout that is quickly approaching and know more about the market than you ever will. And here it is…The smart investor takes from the stupid one!!! booya! Diversification and long term hold is…well…I think you see what I’m saying. As I said in the first post "I don’t care what you think about the market because you live in fantasy land. When this is over, none of you will care to post anymore! "[/quote]



Hey queerstick. My grandparents also knew a lot about spelling. They especially knew that anybody who has difficulty with spelling would have a lot less credibility. So no matter how much you may ACTUALLY know (thus far, nothing), you still sound like an idiot.



I normally don’t indulge pikers like this, but shoeshine is an exception. Besides, the boards haven’t been this lively in a while.

[quote=Floorlord]

[quote=howboutshoeshine]I will not quote anyone that has replied but I will say this…

Great depression- crash equalled 48% drop with a 52% bear market rally with an 80% fall to follow.



Great Depression 2- crash equalled 55% drop wi th a ___ bear market rally with a ____ fall to follow.



adjusted for inflation, revert to mean, long term growth when reinvesting dividends, buy and hold, diversify, or any other crap spewed equals…You’re unemployed and will be shining shoes soon. Hence my screen name. I don’t mean to insult anyone, but you don’t know your field (ie. the stock market, trading.) If you don’t believe me I will begin a string of quotes frompeople you all admire.



" Diversification is for those who don’t know what they are doing." Warren Buffett



Oh yes. Telling clients to be causious in bad times ( Don’t own a lot of equities ) is smart and earns you more.

I go short, I go long, I buy currencies, stocks commodities, you name

it. I can tell that most on here do much less contrary to what they say.[/quote][/quote]



Hey shoeshine. I have to confess some ignorance. What is a stocks commodity?

fritz:

Shoeshine do you think the highs are in for awhile?

Fritz.   come on man.    

Your going to shoe shine tool for your market call?

read this Barton Biggs     

(bear in 1999, bull early 2003, bear 2008).   

Why an Investment Guru Is Bullish on Recovery

By John Curran Thursday, Aug. 13, 2009


Despite investor worries about the U.S. debt, China's excesses and commercial real estate the world over, veteran global investor Barton Biggs says the global recovery now unfolding is going to be powerful. Biggs, who heads New York hedge fund Traxis Partners, spoke with TIME contributing editor John Curran on the outlook for world stock markets.


TIME: How will the U.S. recovery play out?

Biggs: The surprise is going to be how strongly the U.S. — and the world for that matter — emerges from this thing over the next six to nine months. History says the steeper the decline, the steeper the recovery, and I think we'll see that play out. In addition, we've had unprecedented amounts of stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, as well as coordination by governments and central banks around the world. I think we are going to have a very steep recovery that is going to last for another two to three quarters.

And then?
As the stimulus wears off, I expect that we will flatten out in the big developed economies — not have a double dip as the economic bears would argue, but just flatten out. The thing that is different this time is that the developing countries are coming out of this thing very strongly and their own domestic demand is going to sustain them. So they are going to be an important driving force for the global economy. It's worth noting that developing economies are now 35% of the global economy. They are going to be a new factor.

The big concern in the U.S. is the weak consumer. Can we get a business recovery but no consumer recovery?
The consumer is 70% of the U.S. economy, so it's hard to imagine that business can do well unless the consumer is reasonably healthy. But I think the conventional wisdom has become excessively pessimistic about the condition of the U.S. consumer. People have forgotten the effect that rising equity prices as well as the stabilization of real estate — maybe even a few upticks in residential real estate — will have on the consumer's net worth and his spending-saving behavior.

I also expect we'll get some surprises on the business side. Businesses overreacted to the severity of the recession — they cut capital spending, they cut advertising, they cut employment very, very dramatically. They overcut. In the next six months, we are going to be in a period where businesses hire back aggressively and spend on capital equipment and advertising and all those things very aggressively.
(See 10 big recession surprises.)

The U.S. stock market is up nearly 50%. Many bulls say there are hundreds of billions of dollars sitting on the sidelines that will come in, pushing the market higher. Do you agree?
We've been through a secular bear market that really began in 2000. Adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 is down 65% since then. We've been through the worst 10-year period of stock returns on the S&P in the history of American equities. But I think we saw the bottom of the secular bear market [at the March lows]. My view is that the money is coming back.

If we hit bottom in March, does that mean better times are ahead?
Just because we made the bottom of a secular bear market doesn't mean we're in a new bull market. The history is that when you make the bottom of a secular bear market, in almost every situation, there has been a huge rally followed by a long period of churning back and forth in a big, broad trading range, anywhere from three to — in the case of Japan — 18 to 20 years. As for the rally, the usual rebound rally after one of these things is 71% over 17 months. The current rally in the U.S. and Europe has been about 42% over the last five months. We've gone up faster than most rebounds, but not as far. After the rally is over, I can imagine a trading range for the S&P 500 of 1400 to 700 [the S&P 500 is currently near 1000]; that could last for five or 10 years, until we really see how we come out of this thing.

Sort of like the '60s and '70s, when the stock market really went nowhere. Is that what we might be headed for longer term?
Yes, exactly. That bull market really peaked in 1965 or 1966 and then it churned back and forth — and inflation ravaged it, even though the nominal prices didn't collapse as much. But the Dow Jones average didn't set a new high until 1982.
Investor Jim Rogers frequently says on television that we are in a long-term bull market in commodities and that this is the asset class that is really going to perform. Do you agree?
I'm agnostic about it. I can see the validity of the argument, that it is different this time in commodities, but I don't have a strong conviction about it.


Why Investment Guru Barton Biggs is Bullish on Recovery

So gold is not an important part of your portfolio?
I've never understood gold and why you would want to own an asset that has no income return and actually costs you money to own and store. I sort of agree with what [Warren] Buffett said, about how he never understood why they send a bunch of men 5,000 feet under the ground in Africa to bring out this metal, and then they ship it all across the world and it's buried 1,000 feet underground at the Bank of England and the U.S. Treasury. There is something illogical about it.

China is the mother of all emerging markets. Do you see its stock market on a boom-bust trajectory, or is this the dawn of a major bull market, akin to 1982 in the U.S.?
I would characterize it as being more similar to the U.S. in 1982. And China is still cheap. It isn't as cheap as it was four months ago, but that was the bottom of a long-term bear market, so I still think it looks really good.

So you're not worried about a China bubble?
The definite risk was that they were expanding and stimulating so rapidly, it was getting out of control, and that speculation, particularly in real estate, was going to be a real problem. But the latest data suggests just the opposite. While the bears are talking bubble, the new numbers show that industrial production slowed in the most recent month, and also that the volume of new loans made in July was down pretty dramatically. That's good news.
(See pictures of the global financial crisis.)

Which of the world's stock markets will benefit most from China's rapid growth? Big players like Japan and Taiwan, or the smaller basket of Southeast Asian stock markets?
I think it's the smaller basket of Asian markets, and that includes Indonesia, which is lately the hottest of the Asian emerging markets because they've come through this [economic crisis] very well and they seem to have their act together in terms of fiscal and monetary policies. Indonesia's political process has improved tremendously; it also has a big population and a lot of natural resources. The stock market is already up quite a bit.

I think a country like Thailand is also likely to be a beneficiary, and eventually even the Philippines and Vietnam.
(Read "Can China Save the World?")

Why not Taiwan?
Certainly Japan and Taiwan are going to be beneficiaries because, in the case of Japan, they are a huge exporter of high-performance capital goods, very complex machinery and equipment like that, that most other countries can't produce themselves. Taiwan is a more component supplier of electronics. But the Taiwan bulls would argue that Taiwan is going to become the newest province of China; there is going to be a huge flow of real estate investment and industrial investment by mainland Chinese into Taiwan. I have trouble believing that.

Why?
In Taiwan, the indigenous population is actually declining, and the manufacturing base is really located in China rather than Taiwan. I don't see what the attraction is going to be for Chinese industrial investments or for Chinese real estate investments in Taiwan. I just don't find Taiwan has that attraction for the Chinese that Hong Kong does.

Moving to Japan's stock market, which has been comatose for years, are conditions taking shape for its bull to reawaken?
I think they are. Consumer confidence in July rose, exceeding expectations, and there's been a sharp acceleration in industrial production. Also, there is an election in another week, and it's pretty clear that the LDP [Japan's ruling party] is going to lose. The new party that's coming in intends to put through programs that will increase the amount of money that the average Japanese [person has], thereby stimulating personal spending. For example, it intends to cut the gasoline tax and eliminate tolls on all roads. They are going to pump money into the Japanese consumer, whereas the LDP's policy of stimulation, as a cynic would say, was to build bridges to nowhere. They'd create these big industrial-development projects, which really haven't worked and haven't turned the economy around.

As for the China play, Japanese exports of complex, technological equipment have soared. Of those exports, half of them go to Asia, and of that half, 40% goes to China. So it's certainly benefiting.

iceco1d:

All the sh|t you talked about options trading, and someone posts about how Putnam A-shares made money 40 years ago, and you call it intelligence?

Did you have a f*cking stroke recently, or are you just on medication?

Sony Vega loves me.

  Hey ICE, maybe he was talking about MY post! 

B24:

[quote=iceco1d]All the sh|t you talked about options trading, and someone posts about how Putnam A-shares made money 40 years ago, and you call it intelligence?

Did you have a f*cking stroke recently, or are you just on medication?

Sony Vega loves me.

  Hey ICE, maybe he was talking about MY post!  [/quote]   I was talking about your post B24