The trap has passed.  6/15-7/4.  A BS rally back up on no volume.

Now we broke support on the 500 and the Q's just broke support.

A wonderful time for technicians.  Look at some of the semis bouncing right off October lows with nice relative strength.  I'm having a good time over hear.      

Thank you o wise one. Your insight and thoughts are greatly welcomed...

Its amusing to see how you believe yourself to be the patriarch and all-knowing figure on this forum...

Gives me a chuckle as I go through the day...

And by the way, this is going to be a beauty of a recession.  The public can’t spend more than they earn any more because their artifically inflated homes have been tapped out with refi money spent on jet skis and other crap.  The working class can’t afford to drive to WMT to buy junk because gas is too expensive.  This will be interesting to watch as it plays out.

18 straight quarters of positive growth - I doubt we'll see negative growth, let alone a recession.  1,000 point trading ranges - yes.  The only thing worse than a down market is a flat market (remember the 70's, and I'm not talking about your white polyester disco suit)? 

However, nothing can be as bad as the 1999 - 2000 collapse after 8 years of record performance.  I remember thinking that my clients would complain if they got less than 30% returns on their stock portfolios.  Rule #3:  Regression is law.

I think we should “buy & hold”.

[quote=Malcolm]And by the way, this is going to be a beauty of a recession.  The public can't spend more than they earn any more because their artifically inflated homes have been tapped out with refi money spent on jet skis and other crap.  The working class can't afford to drive to WMT to buy junk because gas is too expensive.  This will be interesting to watch as it plays out.[/quote]

Oil above $76 bbl, gasoline averaging $3.30 nationwide.  How about the cost of getting things delivered--the trucking industry is not going to go broke getting your groceries to the store.

The Dow Jones could drop to 3,000--clients with $200,000 portfolios could watch them drop below $100,000.

Real Estate--especially in distant suburbs--could be cut in half.

Interest rates could hit double digits by Christmas.

Investors will want to be in cash and will see no reason to pay management fees to be in cash.

In the 1970s about 80% of the brokers who had been registered in 1970 had quit by 1980--they did not retire, they quit.  People with their money in cash need a financial advisor like they need a root canal.

I think that's right NASD.  Especially on the interest rates.  I think you are also right on the management fees especially for 3rd party managers where the broker sits on his duff and does nothing but collect fees while the brilliant manager tanks. 

I think we are headed toward some difficult times.  Brokers who learn how to really manage money will see their businesses grow through referrals and the rest are going to see their businesses shrink. 

I kon't know much about the trucking industry but I'll take your word on that.  

[quote=NASD Newbie]

[quote=Malcolm]And by the way, this is going to be a beauty of a recession.  The public can't spend more than they earn any more because their artifically inflated homes have been tapped out with refi money spent on jet skis and other crap.  The working class can't afford to drive to WMT to buy junk because gas is too expensive.  This will be interesting to watch as it plays out.[/quote]

Oil above $76 bbl, gasoline averaging $3.30 nationwide.  How about the cost of getting things delivered--the trucking industry is not going to go broke getting your groceries to the store.

The Dow Jones could drop to 3,000--clients with $200,000 portfolios could watch them drop below $100,000.

Real Estate--especially in distant suburbs--could be cut in half.

Interest rates could hit double digits by Christmas.

Investors will want to be in cash and will see no reason to pay management fees to be in cash.

In the 1970s about 80% of the brokers who had been registered in 1970 had quit by 1980--they did not retire, they quit.  People with their money in cash need a financial advisor like they need a root canal.[/quote]

Let's revisit this doom & gloom at the end of the year.  The Dow could drop to 3,000 and the sky could fall too.  Your real estate prediction is plausible, but the rest of your predictions look a little overdone.

Sounds like you need an advisor NASD, to tell you what happens in the short term doesn’t matter never has never will. Go play golf, enjoy life. Get off of these boards where you spend 10 hours a day correcting people and telling us the sky will fall.



How about this DOW will break 12,000 by the end of the year!    I’m a bull!

[quote=bankrep1]

How about this DOW will break 12,000 by the end of the year!    I'm a bull![/quote]

What do you see to drive the market higher?  Gasoline at $4 per gallon, is that it?

A protracted war in the Middle East?  Is that it?

What if Israel destroys the Iranian oil fields, is that Dow 13,000?

A smart guy like you must have all sorts of reasons to substantiate your point of view. What are they?

[quote=bankrep1]

Sounds like you need an advisor NASD, to tell you what happens in the short term doesn't matter never has never will.

[/quote]

Is that right?  Is it possible that the short term can linger and become long term?

What do you tell your client who is 55 years old about being patient?  If a client is sitting on $500,00, down from $1,000,000 what are you going to tell him?  How long should he wait?

[quote=NASD Newbie]

[quote=bankrep1]

Sounds like you need an advisor NASD, to tell you what happens in the short term doesn't matter never has never will.

[/quote]

Is that right?  Is it possible that the short term can linger and become long term?

What do you tell your client who is 55 years old about being patient?  If a client is sitting on $500,00, down from $1,000,000 what are you going to tell him?  How long should he wait?

[quote=Revealer]

If Israel gets adventuresome, grab ahold of your cajones!!

[/quote]

Other things too--GOP loses the House in November could result in a protracted sell off that consumes the next two years.

China's insatiable demand for oil results in $100 bbl prices--there is almost no way the market can crawl up that wall  of worry.  Too many industries are negatively affected by $5 per gallon gasoline.

[quote=Revealer] [quote=NASD Newbie]

[quote=bankrep1]

Sounds like you need an advisor NASD, to tell you what happens in the short term doesn’t matter never has never will.

[/quote]

Is that right? Is it possible that the short term can linger and become long term?

What do you tell your client who is 55 years old about being patient? If a client is sitting on $500,00, down from $1,000,000 what are you going to tell him? How long should he wait?

By the way:



$4 gas means Exxon is going to the moon, a war means the defense sector is going higher and if the Oil field’s are destroyed…well Halliburton is a to quote Jim buy buy buy!



DOW 13,000

[quote=bankrep1]

Again this is why I advocate the VA with a living benefit for those who are scared of the market. Mr. or Mrs. Jones I am not asking you to trust me, read here the word is insured. How can you argue with that?

[/quote]

Are you saying that you believe that a VA will provide enough growth to fund the retirement of a 55 year old engineer?

How many years of 7% growth does it take to return to where you were if you lose 50% in a massive slide?

Do you realize how ignorant you sound when you say that 2001-03 was ugly?  Try Dow at 5,000, or lower for ugly.

Again, suppose your 55 year old client with $700,000 watches it erode to $400,000 while you sit there with your Alfred E Neuman "What Me Worry" routine going.  What kind of a return does he need to achieve get back to his $700,000 in, say, seven years?

Do you think they'll ring a bell telling you that the bull is out of the gates?

[quote=bankrep1]By the way:

$4 gas means Exxon is going to the moon, a war means the defense sector is going higher and if the Oil field's are destroyed...well Halliburton is a to quote Jim buy buy buy!

DOW 13,000[/quote]

Why will Exxon go to the moon?  Oil hit a historic high today--XOM was up a dime a share.  What are the economics of companies like XOM--how much do their costs go up with the price of gasoline?

Don't you figure that war is already built into the defense sector--and Haliburton too for that matter.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Whatever you do, don't talk to your clients with the awe inspiriing ignorance of reality you are displaying on this forum.

[quote=NASD Newbie]

[quote=bankrep1]Again this is why I advocate the VA with a living benefit for those who are scared of the market. Mr. or Mrs. Jones I am not asking you to trust me, read here the word is insured. How can you argue with that? [/quote]

Are you saying that you believe that a VA will provide enough growth to fund the retirement of a 55 year old engineer?

How many years of 7% growth does it take to return to where you were if you lose 50% in a massive slide?

Do you realize how ignorant you sound when you say that 2001-03 was ugly? Try Dow at 5,000, or lower for ugly.

Again, suppose your 55 year old client with $700,000 watches it erode to $400,000 while you sit there with your Alfred E Neuman “What Me Worry” routine going. What kind of a return does he need to achieve get back to his $700,000 in, say, seven years?

Do you think they’ll ring a bell telling you that the bull is out of the gates?

oops ignore the last paragraph in my post