Who do you listen to?
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Vets or those who have good ideas…who do you read/listen to for your market commentary? I have heard some people say they respect Bill Gross, Nouriel Roubini, etc…what about you guys/gals?
Bill Gross on bonds…absolutely. Bill Gross on stocks…HELL no. As for Nouriel Roubini, I don’t have much use for a guy who missed a 40%+ run over the past three months and is historically wrong.
Believe it or not, I listen to LPL's guys more than anyone else. LPL pays them to give us good timely balanced advice, not cheerleading or playing Dr. Doom. Jeff Kleintop really gave me a home run when he singled out preferred stocks early this year...I have several clients who have more than doubled their money in that area in just a few months. Now, we're trimming those positions...good call, Jeff.The mutual fund families usually have an economist on staff that will put out reports monthly or quarterly. Read five or six of those and you can get a pretty good feel for what’s really going on out there just by picking out the common threads among them. I don’t think Gross or Roubini are better at it than anyone else. They just have a bigger following. At the end of the day, it’s still all pretty much economic meteorology. Ever wonder why they call it an economic forecast? So, that’s two jobs you can have where you never really have to be right. If you’re wrong, you just make up some reason why this or that didn’t happen the way you thought it would.
[quote=SometimesNowhere]Vets or those who have good ideas…who do you read/listen to for your market commentary? I have heard some people say they respect Bill Gross, Nouriel Roubini, etc…what about you guys/gals?[/quote]
I don’t use market commentary.
I will read Gross and others at the fund companies (“oh, gee, you recommend bonds…again…big surprise”)…but remember that their opinions are tainted by conflicts of interest. They are all very right some of the time. But being right when everyone is right is no big deal. And being right just because the time for what you always preach has come (i.e. Bill Gross will be right every time there’s a bear market, but wrong during bull markets). Roubini is good for raising points, but I would not rely solely on him. The key is being able to avoid calamities (2000-2002, 2008, etc.), not make 45% returns in an up year.
I like to look at independant research firms that have no skin in the game, that are paid to be right for institutional clients, not to sell funds or SMA's. Check out Crestmont Research. Yes, they sell a book, but try reading the book. Great stuff. They basically just sell research. And not the "Asset Allocation" type of research like "this month we recommend 8% cash, 18% Large domestic growth stocks, 14% international value, 6% real estate, blah, blah, blah" . Sometimes I swear that analysts are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Like it makes a big f'ing deal whether you have 4% or 6% in real estate this month. I also like DSHORT.COM. He's a retired teacher that does charting for a hobby. No joke. And it's all free.[quote=B24]I will read Gross and others at the fund companies (“oh, gee, you recommend bonds…again…big surprise”)…but remember that their opinions are tainted by conflicts of interest. They are all very right some of the time. But being right when everyone is right is no big deal. And being right just because the time for what you always preach has come (i.e. Bill Gross will be right every time there’s a bear market, but wrong during bull markets). Roubini is good for raising points, but I would not rely solely on him. The key is being able to avoid calamities (2000-2002, 2008, etc.), not make 45% returns in an up year.
I like to look at independant research firms that have no skin in the game, that are paid to be right for institutional clients, not to sell funds or SMA's. Check out Crestmont Research. Yes, they sell a book, but try reading the book. Great stuff. They basically just sell research. And not the "Asset Allocation" type of research like "this month we recommend 8% cash, 18% Large domestic growth stocks, 14% international value, 6% real estate, blah, blah, blah" . Sometimes I swear that analysts are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Like it makes a big f'ing deal whether you have 4% or 6% in real estate this month. I also like DSHORT.COM. He's a retired teacher that does charting for a hobby. No joke. And it's all free.[/quote]Brilliant post. Thanks for the help!