Thoughts on Rescue Plan

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Sep 29, 2008 7:08 pm

Latest report is that it is the republicans who botched it. The voted against by about a 2 to 1 margin after their leadership said they had the votes. Stay tuned for all the finger pointing.

It ain't over yet folks, maybe another vote on Thurday.
Sep 29, 2008 7:12 pm

And who would like to be running now for U.S. President and Canadian Prime Minister

Bond guy , had to make that quip. Despite the game of politics this is serious .
Sep 29, 2008 7:17 pm
gvf:

cue the phone calls

  So, what are you guys going to say to your clients??? Seriously.  This is really bad and I haven't a clue on where to put money.  MMKT.  yeah. lets lock in those losses.  Blue chips. Foreign stocks. Stay put.  Hold on the frying pan isn't as hot as the fire????   What?  I'm at a loss. This is the worst I have ever seen.
Sep 29, 2008 7:21 pm

This is an unprecedented scenario right now and as such serves to be truly difficult for all of us to prevent the “but you told me…” conversations which are inevitable from our clients.

  I have to just trust my instincts and my market analysts to make the best decision based on time horizon. As someone posted on another thread, we have had many difficult "unprecedented" recessions that we all made it through.   What becomes difficult is paying our bills while managing our clients' nerves.
Sep 29, 2008 7:24 pm
babbling looney:

[quote=gvf]cue the phone calls

  So, what are you guys going to say to your clients??? Seriously.  This is really bad and I haven't a clue on where to put money.  MMKT.  yeah. lets lock in those losses.  Blue chips. Foreign stocks. Stay put.  Hold on the frying pan isn't as hot as the fire????   What?  I'm at a loss. This is the worst I have ever seen.[/quote]   This is where I'm stuck at.  For the ones invested, I think we just have to stay invested.  Bonds are just as bad right now.   International is getting killed a lot worse than the U.S.   Cash is king right now, be happy to be in it.   I don't know what to tell clients either.  I mean, sorry, go tell your stupid congressman.  We have double digit losses for the month, and statements go out on tomorrow's values.    I don't know what else to tell people.    I can't see how anyone trusts us anymore.  "It's ok Mr. Client, let's stay the course, things will turn around...I mean we're at 13,000 on the Dow, we'll bounce back no problem...we're diversified".   "Hey asshole advisor, we're at 10,500 on the Dow now...thanks for the advice you ass".   "It's ok, the bottom has to be close...stand pat...don't sell".   What a crock.
Sep 29, 2008 7:24 pm

Barney Frank just said: Those republicans (Think it was about 15 of them) who let their emotions override the vote for America is the very number of votes needed to reverse the bill.  You could hear the gasps from the reporters at that kind of quip. 

This thing is fracked, but Babbs, we’re telling our clients to hold on.  These are the worst times to get whipsawed by the market. 

Unfortunately, for the conservative clients who have preferreds (let’s not argue this now), bonds, or muni bonds, it’s much harder to have that conversation. 


Frack me: down 8%

Sep 29, 2008 7:26 pm

Likewise Babs. Have alway had a conservative approach and am doing some soul searchng as how to approach this one. Money Market , lock in the losses not a realistic option. Blue Chips still the way to go and that being said some buying opportunities. Foreign Stocks , again only  quality.

Have been working with clients for awhile on the situation and options. I just need to focus on the basics of Conservative Investing and have them review our original plan/s. My only concern ( or rather major concern ) is what we collectively define as Conservative and Blue Chip.
Sep 29, 2008 7:42 pm

One bright spot.  Or an insane moment.  

  Just had a client want to buy an etf that specializes in financials and a few of shares of brk.b.    Hold on is all I can tell most clients.  Some are at a point where they have erased all gains over the last 5 years.  Cash is looking good right now for those.  But they are a minority.    Bond holders and preferred stock holders.  Hang in there and hope your income continues until things stabilize.  Actually some bond holders are still above par, but many are going to be looking at sub par portfolios for some time to come.  Just hope the income stream continues.
Sep 29, 2008 7:48 pm

I know the client/s don’t want to hear it ( I don’t want to hear it ) but stay the course. Other than Money Market / Cash where are they going to go in the short term other than look at some Blue Chip buying opportunities? Tonight will have do consider the plan sipping on a couple of Bushmills.

Sep 29, 2008 7:57 pm

Hey Babs…remember the Sin Stocks …Booze , Cigarettes and Gaming. After today I can guarantee that at least the first two will be in heavy use. I know Gaming is off a bit but hey always another day.

Sep 29, 2008 8:05 pm

Snag’s post reflects how I feel.

  Anyone having to tell a client or two to hold off that retirement for a few years? Geez.
Sep 29, 2008 8:20 pm

Guys …just a thought. Have been through some  in the past. This is where you really are going to earn your money and provide some sound ideas and plans to your clients. Seriously!!

Sep 29, 2008 8:35 pm

Tomorrow i’m buying munis, just like today.

  Yeah like a broken record. Ok, fair enough butttttttt, here's the deal. I'm buying munis or other high quality bonds today at a discount. Sometimes a substancial discount. Worst case, over the next year or two the economy with the markets in tow does its endo. Boohoo! Then it comes roaring back, just like every other time its done the same thing.  In the meantime the bonds i bought for income don't miss a beat. Then as the economy comes back, so do they. Much of the income received on those bonds will be DCA'd back into the market. Win-Win.   reading this forum i feel like I'm back in 1987 and everyone on the other side of the glass that seperates my office from the rest of the office is frozen. Yet on my side of the glass business is getting done. Accounts are getting opened, advice is being given.   I don't know what the future holds, only that there will be one. I'm going to assume that this nasty event is going to end no differently than every other nasty event in our financial history. That is: with the market climbing to new highs. It may take the rest of my life for that to happen, but it will happen. In the meantime i'll quietly take accounts from the frozen and the panicked.   All that money you get every month or every quarter in your paycheck? Now it's time to earn it. Come up with a strategy that goes beyond being a victim of the markets. Don't be a deer in the headlights.  Be proactive. Be a leader.
Sep 29, 2008 8:36 pm
norway401:

Guys …just a thought. Have been through some  in the past. This is where you really are going to earn your money and provide some sound ideas and plans to your clients. Seriously!!

  I know you have loonies and toonies and other weird stuff up there like mounties, but you don't need to censor yourself here.  In fact, we'd all appreciate some crude language around here given the fact that we really are in a shit storm.  :) 
Sep 29, 2008 8:42 pm
BondGuy:

That is: with the market climbing to new highs. It may take the rest of my life for that to happen, but it will happen.

  I'd be a lot happier if you were 95 years old, but given the fact that you're in your mid-50's (I believe, from what you've posted before), that's not too comforting.   What kinds of muni's are you finding?  Are you sticking to AAA insured, or what?  What are the coupons, YTM?   
Sep 29, 2008 8:46 pm

Bond Guy…correct some serious shit happening. My point is I have been through a couple of market corrections or situations and survivied. Was it fun …NO!!! But my clients and I survived. I could curse my brains out at the politicans , the banks , the regulators but I still need to come in tomorrow and do what my clients pay me to do. Challenges you bet.

Sep 29, 2008 9:11 pm

The House will be out until Thursday.  The markets are on their own until then.  I hate to say this, but if Cramer is right, and the Dow goes to 8500, we’re down another 20% pretty quick.  Thank you House and Senate.

Sep 29, 2008 9:37 pm

By GOs and things like Turnpike bonds. For example i'm buying PA turnpikes. I'm also a buyer of school district bonds. Stay away with anything with warts. Whatsawart? IDAs, weak hospitals, real estate  or any insured bond trading at a AAA level. There is no such thing these days. I've seen some interesting escrowed bonds.

As for the coupon levels, ah , talk to me in the morning. They are changing by the minute.

Sep 29, 2008 9:39 pm

The market gets killed regardless of the plan going through or not.   Its a failed market model.  Time to reconsider career choices

Sep 29, 2008 9:48 pm

[quote=fastcar]The market gets killed regardless of the plan going through or not.   Its a failed market model.  Time to reconsider career choices[/quote]

I hear there will be a few openings in Congress this year.