Skip navigation

September 2008 - Phase of collapse

or Register to post new content in the forum

22 RepliesJump to last post



  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Feb 21, 2008 12:15 am

[quote=Broker7]Indy…dont take it so personally…time will tell…right??  The GEAB isn’t me…it is just news available on the web. 

  "I'm doing my best to remain civil, but posting opinion and numbers manipulated to support a cause as fact is beginning to get mildly need to find a new mentor."   I do not have a bear mentor, I was a tech analyst, things didnt add up, recently I added fundamentals to my research..then things REALLY do not add up.  If you listen to the FED..or your sales is time to find a new mentor...their numbers, stats and rationale are warped to hell.   Agree to disagree...     NEWNEW..have you ever thought you are the one stoning galileo...[/quote]   7, my mistake...I crossed you with someone who referenced a mentor who had correctly predicted our current calamity.  I tend to discount those who bray about being able to correctly and consistently predict the direction of the market.   OK...I shouldn't take it personally and I try not to.  My biggest objection is the forceful nature of your arguments almost to the point of labeling position and opinion as fact.  My fear is that young impressionable minds come here, take your posts to heart and decide that the sky is indeed falling.  I don't agree with that call in the slightest and I think that readers deserve a dissenting opinion.  Frankly, there will most assuredly come a period of time where things don't go particularly well, but I am a long way from believing that our global financial system is on the brink of collapse.   As a student of history, I've observed our financial system take many a blow that make the current "crisis" look benign by comparison.  Based on how our system has been able to react to a variety of completely unexpected financial catastrophes, I fully expect that we will again adapt and evolve beyond such catastrophic events in the future.  We've survived the great depression, world wars, catastrophic terrorist events, double digit inflation, oil embargos, tech bubbles, the brink of nuclear war and presidential assassinations.  Short of the end of the world (where financial matters will be the least of our concerns), I don't see anything we can't ultimately deal with.   As far as listening to the fed or my sales desk, I approach much of what I'm told and what I read with a healthy degree of skepticism.  I am an independent in nearly every sense of the word.  I was buying on 9/17/2001 and continued buying through 2002 when the sky was falling and our government and economy was in crisis mode.  I shunned tech stocks in the late 90's because I didn't agree that "it's different this time - P/E ratios no longer matter...only sales growth".  When P/E ratios averaged 31X and the bubble broke, my clients survived because we'd taken a more conservative approach.  I didn't shun the market, mind you, but I did avoid heavy exposure in the fastest growth areas.  Sure, clients lost money, but not enough to push them out of the market.  Those clients that were patient made strong returns in 2003-2007.  I pride myself in being able to operate between the extremes...extreme greed, exuberance and fear.   My fundamentals show average forward P/E's of 13-14X...well below average.  With bond yields as low as they are, and trending lower, I can't help but feel pretty positive about the direction of our market.  Add a stable to strengthening dollar and falling oil prices, and I think we have a recipe for some very positive returns.  You can argue about how the dollar is going to continue to decline and oil is going to continue going to the me, it sounds eerily similar to those who argued there was no end to how high tech shares could go in early 2000.  Markets rarely stay at either extreme for long and it's a matter of opinion who's numbers, stats and rationale are "warped to hell".  I'll agree to disagree, but don't be surprised to see me continue to attempt to balance the view around here...
Feb 21, 2008 3:09 pm


    The GEAB isn't is just news available on the web.   [/quote]   So is ...   By the way Indy, awesome post.[/quote]   Thanks...and by the way, I love The Onion...ever since I first picked up a copy on the UWisconsin campus back in the early 90's at a banking school.   ...and as promised, GEAB and it's ilk was briefly referenced today in the morning call with Lincoln Anderson more or less dismissing that kind of stuff as crazy talk when things get tough or something to that effect.  Without giving away trade secrets and/or putting too many words in their mouth, it's my impression that the LPL research team has consistently  acknowledged some economic softness, but feels that there are some excellent opportunities here and that on balance, this should be a pretty good year. 7 says...only time will tell.  I'm looking forward to getting the debate answered one way or the other.