14:51:18 Comment: PIMCO’s Bill Gross says there is no bull market in bonds, stocks, real estate or in commodities because the global market is experiencing deleveraging. Gross says most asset classes are down right now, about 10% over the past 12 months, which is close to depressionary levels.Thoughts?
Interesting comment. Look at the U.K. , Germany and what are they talking about in terms of their economies. It is expected this week in Canada the P.M. will call an election for Oct/09. The pundints are suggesting his polling looks good now …BUT the Economy is the issue. Get re-elected now rather than wait the full term because of the economy and risk defeat. Depressionary or at least close. Hunker down time
[quote=snaggletooth]14:51:18 Comment: PIMCO’s Bill Gross says there is no bull market in bonds, stocks, real estate or in commodities because the global market is experiencing deleveraging. Gross says most asset classes are down right now, about 10% over the past 12 months, which is close to depressionary levels.Thoughts?[/quote] Makes a whole lot of sense. The recent runup (2002-2007) was due much in part to the use of leverage (mortgages, essentially). Once that over-leveraging hit the breaking point, the money was gone. It's not really about asset class performance right now (geez, what's working right now?), it's about capital.
I passed on this forum for 6 months. I see alot of changes in mentality here... The feds are playing their cards slowly. Funny money is being printed at unprecidented levels. Enron like behavior runs the financial institutions....not just in the US..but globally.Well..at least the global recession is ballasting our dollar!!
Broker7 …remember the Asian Tigers I have done a fair amount of reading/reviewing of that period ending 1998/9. Some scary similarities and see what their Central Banks and Private Financial Institutions were doing…!!! The Currency Traders were salivating with every move they made.
Gross is a perennial bear- Has to be, as he is selling bond funds. He was a bear at Dow 7700, 10,000 and 11,500. So even if he’s right, he’s wrong! Truth is, with the markets down near 20%, there’s much more upside than downside potential at this point. I can’t say where the next 1000 point move will be, but I’m absolutely certain where the next 10,000 point move will be, and that’s obviously much more important.I really don’t put much credence in Gross’s views, he is a good bond fund manager though.
I don’t like him as a B fund manager. But that’s just me. Bonds, moreover munis, seem way oversold to me on a long term basis. Not underestimating the power of a 98/9 full gainer with triple twist, bonds are already down farther than they should be. And subordinated debt, prefs are ridiculously under priced right now. I’m a buyer, as usual.