[quote=Indyone]That’s why you tell them to take SOME profits, dummy!

So you're admiting that your advice is a hedge--that you really don't have a clue to what the market is going to do.

Would that be wrong?[/quote]

Not in my book.  Yes, I'm hedging and while I feel like I have a clue, I don't have any absolute conviction about where things are going short-term.  I'm on the record with my conviction that a Democratic sweep of both houses next month would probably be bad for the market in the short-term, but other than that, my only conviction is that long-term, the stock market will rise.

[quote=Indyone]

but other than that, my only conviction is that long-term, the stock market will rise.[/quote]

That would be because earnings always go up?

What if a guy is 63 years old.  In order to reach a goal he has set for his portfolio he must average 20% return for three years.

What should he do?

What would you say the odds are that somebody could entrust you with $100,000 and walk away after twenty years having done no better than they would have done in a pass book savings account?

[quote=Indyone]but other than that, my only conviction is that long-term, the stock market will rise.

That would be because earnings always go up?  Ummmmm...no...that's not my statement.

What if a guy is 63 years old.  In order to reach a goal he has set for his portfolio he must average 20% return for three years.

What should he do?  Find another advisor...I'm not interested.[/quote]

[quote=Devil'sAdvocate]What would you say the odds are that somebody could entrust you with $100,000 and walk away after twenty years having done no better than they would have done in a pass book savings account?[/quote]

Those odds would be pretty damn small...

[quote=Indyone]

[quote=Devil'sAdvocate]What would you say the odds are that somebody could entrust you with $100,000 and walk away after twenty years having done no better than they would have done in a pass book savings account?[/quote]

Those odds would be pretty damn small...

[/quote]

So, you're not confident enough to say that you definitely can beat a pass book savings account?

[quote=Devil’sAdvocate]

[quote=Indyone]

but other than that, my only conviction is that long-term, the stock market will rise.[/quote]

That would be because earnings always go up?

What if a guy is 63 years old.  In order to reach a goal he has set for his portfolio he must average 20% return for three years.

What should he do?

[/quote]

He needs to get a reality check and revise his goals.

[quote=Indyone] [quote=Devil’sAdvocate]What would you say the odds are that somebody could entrust you with $100,000 and walk away after twenty years having done no better than they would have done in a pass book savings account?

Those odds would be pretty damn small...[/quote]

So, you're not confident enough to say that you definitely can beat a pass book savings account?[/quote]

No, just not stupid enough to guarantee it.

[quote=Devil’sAdvocate][quote=Indyone] [quote=Devil’sAdvocate]What would you say the odds are that somebody could entrust you with $100,000 and walk away after twenty years having done no better than they would have done in a pass book savings account?

Those odds would be pretty damn small...[/quote]

So, you're not confident enough to say that you definitely can beat a pass book savings account?[/quote]

No, just not stupid enough to guarantee it.

[/quote]

Why should somebody hire an advisor with so little confidence?

[quote=Indyone][quote=Devil’sAdvocate][quote=Indyone] [quote=Devil’sAdvocate]What would you say the odds are that somebody could entrust you with $100,000 and walk away after twenty years having done no better than they would have done in a pass book savings account?

Those odds would be pretty damn small...[/quote]

So, you're not confident enough to say that you definitely can beat a pass book savings account?[/quote]

No, just not stupid enough to guarantee it.

[/quote]

Why should somebody hire an advisor with so little confidence?

[/quote]

You're trying to hard.

Hard is not a verb.

[quote=Devil’sAdvocate]

[quote=Indyone]

but other than that, my only conviction is that long-term, the stock market will rise.[/quote]

That would be because earnings always go up?

What if a guy is 63 years old.  In order to reach a goal he has set for his portfolio he must average 20% return for three years.

What should he do?

That 63 year old guy wanting a 20% average return for 3 years needs to be told he has unreasonable expectations.  No reputable financial advisor would even touch this guy.

Also, you could easily beat a passbook savings account by something as simple as a money market.  Wouldn't give him his 20% return, but would be more than a passbook.

[quote=joedabrkr] [quote=Devil’sAdvocate]

[quote=Indyone]

but other than that, my only conviction is that long-term, the stock market will rise.[/quote]

That would be because earnings always go up?

What if a guy is 63 years old.  In order to reach a goal he has set for his portfolio he must average 20% return for three years.

What should he do?

[/quote]

pray
[/quote]

Is that the best you can come up with?

Lol, Newbie is posting at 5:14 AM!!!!!

Let me ask you, how bad does it feel to know you are so completely addicted to an internet forum?

I'm sure you can relate to those addicted to porn, or chatting online with 12 year olds, who time after time just can't seem to look away or turn the computer off.

It is sad indeed to be you.

[quote=Devil'sAdvocate] <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

[What if a guy is 63 years old.  In order to reach a goal he has set for his portfolio he must average 20% return for three years.

What should he do?

[/quote]

He should hire an adviser who will tell him his expectations are outlandish and would ask him if he’s considered the risk he’d have to take to make anywhere near that sort of return (assuming the markets would even be cooperative).

[quote=BankFC]

Lol, Newbie is posting at 5:14 AM!!!!!

[/quote]

The board's time is central time.  6:15 in New York is hardly early for those with ambition and an interest in what is going on in the world.

Today is options expiration and I have some fairly significant positions to unwind--took a hit this time.  One can't hit a winner everytime--but October has screwed me over for two years now.

I'm surprised that a producing broker is not on line earlier than 6 AM every day just to see what is going on in the world.

[quote=Devil’sAdvocate]

What would you say the odds are that somebody could entrust you with $100,000 and walk away after twenty years having done no better than they would have done in a pass book savings account?

[/quote]

Eleventykabillion to 1. 

[quote=mikebutler222][quote=Devil’sAdvocate]

What would you say the odds are that somebody could entrust you with $100,000 and walk away after twenty years having done no better than they would have done in a pass book savings account?

[/quote]

Eleventykabillion to 1. 

[quote=Devil’sAdvocate][quote=BankFC]

Lol, Newbie is posting at 5:14 AM!!!!!

[/quote]

The board's time is central time.  6:15 in New York is hardly early for those with ambition and an interest in what is going on in the world.

Today is options expiration and I have some fairly significant positions to unwind--took a hit this time.  One can't hit a winner everytime--but October has screwed me over for two years now.

I'm surprised that a producing broker is not on line earlier than 6 AM every day just to see what is going on in the world.

[/quote]

You weren't on CNN.com or Foxnews.com, you were here.  You were posting on an internet forum from which you cannot make yourself break away.  You are sadly addicted, and denial of your addiction is predictable.