Despite current upheavals in the markets, author and demographer Harry Dent is standing by his contention that the Dow could hit 36,000 by 2007 or 2008.
“This is short-term market turmoil,” Dent said Wednesday at the Raymond James 2001 National Conference in Las Vegas. “This could be a major correction, but this is not a 1930’s or 1970’s recession.
“Baby boomers keep spending money and keep driving the economy,” he says. “Only since 1980 have we had the demographic studies on what they [boomers] spend money on. You cannot get that from technical indicators.”
The boom, he says, will continue to about 2008-2010. “Then, the boomers will age and retire and the following generation, the [smaller group, dubbed the] baby bust generation will be entering the work force with no money.”
Dent cited a clear example of the boomer’s effect on the market. “Look at Harley-Davidson motorcycles. All the Harleys sold are to middle-aged baby boomers [average age 45 to 49 years] going through male menopause. By 2009, that generation will not be buying Harleys and that could be a major bust in 2009.
“We’re only halfway through our technological revolution, and we should have an upward trend with the Dow hitting 35,000 through the decade,” Dent says. “By 2011 at the latest, I would get out. Asia, excluding Japan, will be the hot market.”
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