We’re stuck in a Mideast quagmire,

The dollar is falling like lead,

The national debt is exploding,

I think I’ll just go back to bed.



More firms are defaulting on pensions,

They say SSI must be trimmed,

What happened to promised protections,

Our safety nets all have been skimmed.



The good jobs are all disappearing,

I’m working much harder for less,

Some signs of a budding inflation,

Make me nervous, I gotta confess.



Optimism a great soporific,

Fast asleep we are happy and free,

But sometimes you have to stop dreaming,

And face up to reality.

[quote=BigKahuna][quote=Shania Twain]

[quote=curly]

i don’t know this mel guy, but most people who are short the mkt tend to trade longs during the day to stay ahead until the dreaded day comes…which is soon

[quote=mlgone] right mel.

great call on the S&P at 950 by Nov’s end. spot on mel

can someone explain how a huge move has been missed in this mkt when the S & P 500 is 1% in the past 6 weeks ?



And only 2.6% in 8 weeks ?

[quote=Shania Twain][quote=BigKahuna][quote=Shania Twain]

[quote=BigKahuna]

]Couldn’t be more wrong[/quote]



For example, the Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, “Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow–But 6 years late,” in reference to Prechter’s 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[15] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:

The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method’s loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[16]

His long-term track record from his newsletter calls has been poor. Using data from newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, syndicated columnist Eric Tyson showed that Prechter has underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985. [17]

In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. Oil reached $135/barrel in late May 2008 before crashing as he had predicted. [18] [19]

[edit]



Precter is a salesman.   he sucks

Harry Dents dow 41,000 target



con man salesman



The Roaring 2000’s Investment Strategy



The chart on page 36 (a rough approximation appears below), “Economic Cycle and Investment Strategies,” is an excellent visual summary of the Dent’s advice. He thinks large cap growth stocks should do well in the growth boom from 1982 through 2008. He predicts that a 12 to 14 year long recession will follow, ending in about 2022. The accompanying deflation means US Treasury bonds would be the best bet during that period. Long-term buy & hold (LTB&H) stock investors will have a big decision on their hands: stay long in stocks or switch to bonds. His final price target is dow 41,000.





During the growth boom (1982-2008), Dent advises the following asset allocation:



32.5% financial services

32.5% computer software and systems

15.0% health care & pharmaceuticals

20.0% Asian stocks (excluding Japan)

do i even need to dis joe the drunk granville.?



i think his long term numbers are off the charts (poor)



something like minus 15% over 25 years



that would be hard to do if you TRIED



precter, dent and granville are all full of shti.

these guys all the same.   sell their greed or fear.   



when they wrong and blow people out, just reload with more meth-head witch doctor bullshti.    get more suckers to buy news letter.   the new group (you) think they mensa if they made a good call recently. (which is 50-50)



precter such a Ivy league arrogant d-bag.    whip saw loser

IBD and Cabot.    all you need.

You are wrong on Prechter. Period. I acknowledge your example though.

prechter was right in june 08.



Look at his full body of work.   



he is full of crap.    his track record sucks



buy and hold spx and you destroy his numbers



goog his name and elliot wave



he cant hide from FACTS



and he lies.    



its total witch doctor



he has been wrong much more then right

prechter was right in june 08.

Look at his full body of work.   

he is full of crap.    his track record sucks

buy and hold spx and you destroy his numbers

goog his name and elliot wave

he cant hide from FACTS

and he lies.    

its total witch doctor

he has been wrong much more then right

Here it comes you DUMB mother FCKERS

[quote=BigKahuna][quote=

We evaluate here the stock market forecasts of Robert Prechter, mostly since April 2002. Evaluated predictions come indirectly via MarketWatch columns, which have tracked his commentary only occasionally in recent years. Robert Prechter is president of Elliott Wave International and has since 1979 been publishing the Elliott Wave Theorist. He is the author of multiple books related to the Elliott wave principle. The table below presents highlights from his commentary and shows the performance of the S&P 500 index over the 21, 63, 126 and 254 trading days after the publication date for each item. Red plus (minus) signs to the right of specific items indicate those that the market has subsequently proven right (wrong). We conclude that:

Here are additional notes to augment the tabular summary:

From Nark Hulbert in MarketWatch (11/25/09): "...Prechter's advice over the last couple of years has been top-rated. ...On the other hand, ...the newsletter's timing advice for traders is in last place for performance over the last 20 years among all stock market timing strategies tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest."

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (3/4/09): "...the Elliott Wave Financial Forecaster...is currently actually ahead over the past 10 years by Hulbert Financial Digest count, up 1.49% annualized, vs. negative 1.84% annualized for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the past 12 months through February, EWFF is up some 24% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, vs. negative 46% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. Over the year to date, EWFF is up 4.6% vs. negative 21.71% for the total-return DJW."

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (10/20/05): "...the EWFF's [Elliot Wave Financial Forecast] trader's portfolio has endured a staggering annualized loss of 18.1% over the 20 years through September. (EWFF split off in 1999 from Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist, which no longer offers specific portfolio advice. But the two seem to work in tandem.) EWFF's advice for investors, however, currently matches the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 on a risk-adjusted basis and has quite often exceeded it."

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (1/12/04): "...by Hulbert Financial Digest count, the stock market timing of Elliot Wave Financial Forecast (which HFD treats as the successor to Elliott Wave Theorist after the latter stopped giving portfolio advice) has outperformed the Wilshire 5000 on a risk-adjusted basis over the entire period since July 1980. Over the past five years, it gained 3.5 percent on average annually, vs. 1.8 percent for the Wilshire 5000. This, however, was the Prechter people's investors portfolio, which switches between the stock market and cash. The traders portfolio actually goes short, with the result that it has an annualized loss of close to 20 percent since 1985, when buying and holding produced an annualized gain of more than 12 percent."

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (6/30/03): "Prechter has been out of the stock market since before -- note carefully, before -- the 1987 Crash. Naturally, this has hurt but has also served him well in the bear market of the past three years. Indeed, because of that high cash component, Prechter has recently been ahead of the Wilshire 5000 on a risk-adjusted basis over the 23 years that the HFD has been following him."

From Peter Brimelow in MarketWatch (4/26/02): "Exactly how much Elliot Wave forecast fans lost depends on whether they actually went short the market when Prechter turned bearish. In that case, they are in a deep hole: down 99.2 percent over the last 15 years. In contrast, the stock market yielded a 398.6 percent dividend-reinvested gain. But if Prechter's followers merely went into cash in the wake of Prechter's bearishness, they would have gained 135.2 percent over those same 15 years."

In their October 2003 paper entitled "Idealized Elliott Waves and Random Walk Tests", Robert Prechter and Deepak Goel find that stock market movements are more like idealized Elliott waves than random fluctuations. However, the paper does not address whether these test results support any systematic stock market timing approach.

In summary, Robert Prechter has been mostly unsuccessful in applying the Elliott wave principle to time the U.S. stock market since 2002.

In summary, Robert Prechter has been mostly unsuccessful in applying the Elliott wave principle to time the U.S. stock market since 1985.