I thought you left?

It’s not really shoeshine.  There appear to be several people mocking him.  Not that much like meletoi mocking meletio, but it’s something right?

[quote=howboutshoeshine]





It’s very tough to have to deal with being so wrong,



(quote)



I understand.    Cover your short and get long here.



Take the hit. Accept your mistake.   It’s ok

I will check back when the DOW falls another 1000 pts. This is a waste of time.

[quote=Moraen] It’s not really shoeshine.  There appear to be several people mocking him.  Not that much like meletoi mocking meletio, but it’s something right?
[/quote]


I think that was him in this thread Moraen…

[quote=iceco1d]I'd like to address something Shoeshine.

For us to bust through the lows...When the Dow was in the 6,000's, the world was coming to an end.  The major money center banks should have all collapsed.  The U.S. Auto industry was on the brink of failure, sans Ford.  Unemployment was going up quickly.  Foreclosures & bank failures were skyrocketing.  Oil @ 147 a barrel. 

So, if you are looking at "what's to come" in the stock market, from a macro perspective...what's go to happen for the market to go LOWER than it was?  Liquidity is available (after all, the BIGGEST problem was the swap market) for banks.  FDIC limit is up.  Unemployment rising at a much slow rate.  Same for foreclosures.  Some real estate markets flattened out, or even beginning to rebound.  Automakers stable.  Oil stable.  Gold up, but stable. 

Lets keep something in mind...the argument here (or one of them) is that stimulus money is drying up, and people aren't back to work, and they are spending less regardless.  True.

However, there are now fewer competitors to compete for that smaller number of dollars being spent.  Bear Stearns & Lehman.  Wamu, Wachovia, Indy Mac, etc.  No Pontiac, and several other bloated brands & auto lineups.  Best Buy doesn't have to compete with Circuit City anymore.  Borders will soon be out of Barnes & Noble's hair. 

You get the point.  Yes, less dollars...but also less companies vying for them. 

Now, I'm not saying that I think we are headed up (stock market wise) either.  But I don't think we are going to break 9,000 on the Dow again.  In fact, I'd say we are going to hang out between 9,500 and 10,500 for awhile now.  Maybe see Dow breach 11,000 about 18 months from now. 

That's my take anyway. 

PS - Anyone who has been to a Coach store, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Nine West, Gap, Banana Republic, or Starbucks lately would have a hard time knowing that we are in the midst of "the worst recession since the 1930's."


[/quote]

I agree with some of what you say ICE. However, the market technicals tell a very different story. You had a ridiculous rally go on with 1/3 the trading volume than the previous 5 years. It wasn't the "good" companies that got the boost either it was the companies that were 70%-90% Down. If you don't believe that to be true, pull up a chart on any BIG bank, any materials company, or any consumer discretionary company, real estate, home builder, there are more, but you see my point. The market runs in 18 year cycles and when it falls, everything falls with it. It is simply revaluing the market.

I will check back when the DOW falls another 1000 pts. This is a waste of time.

[quote=iceco1d] I’d like to address something Shoeshine.For us to bust through the lows…When the Dow was in the 6,000’s, the world was coming to an end. The major money center banks should have all collapsed. The U.S. Auto industry was on the brink of failure, sans Ford. Unemployment was going up quickly. Foreclosures & bank failures were skyrocketing. Oil @ 147 a barrel. So, if you are looking at “what’s to come” in the stock market, from a macro perspective…what’s go to happen for the market to go LOWER than it was? Liquidity is available (after all, the BIGGEST problem was the swap market) for banks. FDIC limit is up. Unemployment rising at a much slow rate. Same for foreclosures. Some real estate markets flattened out, or even beginning to rebound. Automakers stable. Oil stable. Gold up, but stable. Lets keep something in mind…the argument here (or one of them) is that stimulus money is drying up, and people aren’t back to work, and they are spending less regardless. True.However, there are now fewer competitors to compete for that smaller number of dollars being spent. Bear Stearns & Lehman. Wamu, Wachovia, Indy Mac, etc. No Pontiac, and several other bloated brands & auto lineups. Best Buy doesn’t have to compete with Circuit City anymore. Borders will soon be out of Barnes & Noble’s hair. You get the point. Yes, less dollars…but also less companies vying for them. Now, I’m not saying that I think we are headed up (stock market wise) either. But I don’t think we are going to break 9,000 on the Dow again. In fact, I’d say we are going to hang out between 9,500 and 10,500 for awhile now. Maybe see Dow breach 11,000 about 18 months from now. That’s my take anyway. PS - Anyone who has been to a Coach store, Red Lobster, Olive Garden, Nine West, Gap, Banana Republic, or Starbucks lately would have a hard time knowing that we are in the midst of “the worst recession since the 1930’s.”

[/quote]





yep…



I buy off on Gross’s “new normal”.

Clip 1.5% off GDP.

fine



But, what he and many are missing is the REAL story.

The REAL new normal. That is much bigger then the hit US consumer has taken



BRIC’s



The world changed Nov 20, 2008.



Look at a chart on Brazil from nov 20, 2008 and a chart on the s and p or W Europe…



You bears are missing the forest for the trees.



Monster, massive global economy with BILLIONS of more people in “free” market economies.



Subprime will be a blip on the MONSTER uptrend of the new global economy



people missed tech bubble in 2000

people missed sub prime bubble in 2008



Now the market has trained everyone to NOT miss the next bubble…



guess what?   aint happening.



Like always…the market will prove the most number of people wrong.



people so under invested

buy and hold is dead

stocks suck

have not made money in a decade

they wont get me this time

blah blah blah



its SO easy to be bearish.

difficult to stay the course

the average rock head small investor is OUT



WONT GET ME THIS TIME



there were no Mel’s

there were no young guys certain stocks were going lower.

market has bithc slapped everyone…twice in a decade



the trap?   looking out the back window of the last decade



JUST like 1982 or other major end to secular bears



read some headlines and articles from 1982.



the seeds of free markets have been sown in many areas across the globe.



it REALLY has become a global economy

these seeds are now GROWING.



subprime and tech bubble are BLINDING PEOPLE from the REAL STORY

Im even starting to like the jumping weather bimbi.



The Ta Ta’s

The smile

The lips…



I am a desperate, pathetic person…

Shania- it REALLY has become a global economy
these seeds are now GROWING.

Stimulus money drying up.  Isn’t there about $600 billion not doing anything right now? 

The Treasury hired an investment management firm to manage repaid TARP money.

cat tractor





Look at Cat tractors annual report.

67% of revs come outside of N America.   Look at 2001. 30%.



F the US consumer.

F all the negative bs (looking out back window)

F inflation   (inflation is WAGES.   billions of people working for a buck a day)

without any real inflation pressure it will allow all this Govt. candy to work and not mess financial assets up with inflation

Ok



We wont be giving home mortgages to homeless peeps.



We wont be letting dumb asses press up and borrow money off their inflated houses to buy HDTV’s at BBY.



We wont be packaging this toxic bs and shipping it off to Iceland



so what?



ok, last few years have been a bit of a Ponzi.   old news



knock a bit off GDP. big MF deal.



China creates a new Chicago about every quarter…



The future of humans, free markets and personal individual freedom has NEVER been brighter then right now.



COMPETITION FOR GLOBAL RESOURCES.



There is no doubt that we will blow through the 07 highs on all commods.   147 on oil will seem cheap.

One of my favorite overweights right now…global commodities.  LPL has been singing that tune for nearly a year now and it’s one of the reasons my portfolios crushed the S&P last year.  Another theme that worked very well, especially over the first half of last year…preferreds.  I’ve since taken much of the money allocated there and moved to high-yield.  LPL’s forecast for this year is mid-teens for US equities over the first half and giving back as much as half of that over the second half to end the year up 8-9% (S&P 500).

[quote=Indyone]One of my favorite overweights right now…global commodities.  LPL has been singing that tune for nearly a year now and it’s one of the reasons my portfolios crushed the S&P last year.  Another theme that worked very well, especially over the first half of last year…preferreds.  I’ve since taken much of the money allocated there and moved to high-yield.  LPL’s forecast for this year is mid-teens for US equities over the first half and giving back as much as half of that over the second half to end the year up 8-9% (S&P 500).

Yeah, your laughter is real credible shoeshine boy.

NYSE UP Volume to Down Volume just under 6:1

Advance decline jsut under 4:1

Solid day. Not stellar, but solid.

Sportsfreak- lowest volume since Jan. 19th, other wise correct-Also…I did not say to exit the market until 10/29/09 and I call the doollar bottom along with shorting Gold. So:

ur a fagg0t

[quote=mlgone] [quote=howboutshoeshine] Sportsfreak- lowest volume since Jan. 19th, other wise correct-Also…I did not say to exit the market until 10/29/09 and I call the doollar bottom along with shorting Gold. So: