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Dec 27, 2009 11:04 pm

[[email protected]] Thanks for the information. I like getting hard facts and this is a great source. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf

I was referring to losing 2% of the soldiers stationed in Iraq based on the estimated number of people on site; not, 2% of our entire military. I believe this number is still accurate. Iraq is a dangerous place. War doesn’t make our soldiers safer. But, I think you know that. [/quote]



Like I said, more died in training. A paper written by Economist Alex Goldblait broke it down. That the training succeeded.



We have had over 2 million soldiers rotate through Iraq since the inception of the war. It is NOT 2%. And then you said 5% of our fighting force. Your numbers are confusing. Please elaborate.



The conclusion to draw from the statistics is that soldiers are safer at war than at home. Whether that is the reality is another story.



IRAQ is dangerous?! Homicide stats in Chicago from 2001 - 2008 were 4227, only 800 less than died in BOTH wars.



And that is ONE city. Not two countries torn by strife. I wonder if we looked at murders across just eastern seaboard states (approximately the size of Iraq and Afghanistan).



So it is nearly safer to be a soldier in Iraq or Afghanistan (Afghanistan for sure!) than it is to be an ordinary citizen in Chicago - a city.



I will guarantee you that less Americans have died in Baghdad.



And yes, this time I am manipulating statistics.

Dec 28, 2009 12:28 am

At least you know you are getting carried away with some of your comparisons.

If you have an average of 250,000 soldiers for 5 years, that’s 1,250,000 soldieryears in Iraq. (The equivalent of 1.2MM soldiers in Iraq for one year).

If you have 2.8 million people in Chicago for 5 years, you have 14,000,000 resident
years. (The equivalent of 14MM people in Chicago for one year) - more than 11.2X the exposure. To compare death rates, you need to divide (or multiply) by this factor.

5,000 people died in Iraq & Afghanistan vs. 377 people in Chicago (4,227/11.2). This proves soldiers are significantly more at risk at war…which is already obvious. 

Dec 28, 2009 12:38 am

[[email protected]]

At least you know you are getting carried away with some of your comparisons. If you have an average of 250,000 soldiers for 5 years, that’s 1,250,000 soldieryears in Iraq. (The equivalent of 1.2MM soldiers in Iraq for one year).If you have 2.8 million people in Chicago for 5 years, you have 14,000,000 residentyears. (The equivalent of 14MM people in Chicago for one year) - more than 11.2X the exposure. To compare death rates, you need to divide (or multiply) by this factor. 5,000 people died in Iraq & Afghanistan vs. 377 people in Chicago (4,227/11.2). This proves soldiers are significantly more at risk at war…which is already obvious. [/quote]



Wrong. Over 2 million soldiers, sailors and airmen have rotated through. In 2005, 1.4 million had already rotated through. My guess is it’s closer to 3 million at this point.



Your 2% number is completely false. I still want to know where you get this number from.



As for the Chicago/Iraq comparison, keep in mind that Chicago is only one city and NOT the most violent in the nation. Chicago has a more static population than soldiers rotating through, so the comparisons are a lot closer than you paint.



Airmen rotate every 4 months, Marines every 7, National Guard varies between 9 and 15, Army between 12 and 15. And usually by Brigade (5000 troops or so).



Look who is manipulating statistics now.



But, if you look at the CRS statistics, you already know that it is safer for our troops to be at war, according to numbers. If that is the standard you will use.



Are you going to count the soldiers killed at Ft. Hood as Iraq/Afghanistan, or stateside deaths?

Dec 28, 2009 1:43 am

I have a background in statistics…I’m trying to be as objective as possible.
Look at it this way, my number 1.2MM soldier*years.

If the average tour is 1 year that means 1.2MM soldiers have been in Iraq.
If the average tour is 6 months, 2.4MM soldiers have been in Iraq.
I don’t know the real time frame, but this is the best way to compare.

Although, we haven’t even gotten into the fact that those who die in
Chicago are wearing street clothes - those who die in Iraq are wearing
body armor.

but even then, i bet there are neighborhoods in Chicago that are equally dangerous to Iraq.

Dec 28, 2009 3:17 am

[[email protected]][email protected] believes a lone lunatic will eventually cause a mass terror event which will cost tens or hundreds of thousands of lives. Most likely, this will be carried out using a biological or chemical weapon - although, it could be nuclear.

Saying that waterboarding will protect us is naive. You can’t waterboard enough people in order to reach all the Theo Kaczynskis, Tim McVeighs, and other people who believe they are noble in their pursuit.

I absolutely believe our only effective defense is the trust of the friends, families and acquaintances of these unstable individuals. (that’s how we caught Kaczynski) We need these acquaintances to call the feds when they think their brother or cousin might be out to cause mass harm.

If I were an Arab-American, I would never call the feds even if my brother was clearly unstable. No one would call on their friends or family if they believe he might be tortured. I would call if I thought he would receive the help he needs.   

Moraen, as much as I respect most of your opinions, I just don’t share your views on the “terrorists” being afraid of one administration and emboldened by another. To me, it almost sounds childish. If Bush-style aggression really works, why couldn’t the English suppress the IRA? Why was there a bombing in London?

[/quote]
The father of the person who attempted to bomb the plane from Amsterdam alerted authorities that his son might try to do something. Yet this person was still able to board a plane with an explosive device.

The Homeland Security Department is CRAP!!! Why the f*** do I have to take my shoes off at airports when they don’t even investigate tips??? WTF!!!

Dec 28, 2009 4:15 am

[/quote]
The father of the person who attempted to bomb the plane from Amsterdam alerted authorities that his son might try to do something. Yet this person was still able to board a plane with an explosive device.

The Homeland Security Department is CRAP!!! Why the f*** do I have to take my shoes off at airports when they don’t even investigate tips??? WTF!!!
[/quote]

  This above quote by Moraen is the essence of my point in starting this thread,,,,The way we are handling this threat, and its a real threat to our way of life, call me paranoid if you want, but it is....anyway, the way we are handling this threat, is a joke.   [email protected], no disrespect meant, but i dont even understand your posts. WTF does a little girl getting hit by a stray bullet, or a grandmother having a bad reaction to medicine, have to do with a terrorist blowing up an airplane or a subway train? You are talking about random, unintentional acts, vs a deliberate attempt to hurt a large amount of people.   In fact, what do all these statistics mean? If i am on a train, and the guy next to me pushes a button strapped to his d*** and vaporizes me, i dont care about statistics. If you think that is far fetched, then you are naive.    
Dec 28, 2009 4:47 am
Sportsfreakbob:

[[email protected]]
The father of the person who attempted to bomb the plane from Amsterdam alerted authorities that his son might try to do something. Yet this person was still able to board a plane with an explosive device.

The Homeland Security Department is CRAP!!! Why the f*** do I have to take my shoes off at airports when they don’t even investigate tips??? WTF!!!

  This above quote by Moraen is the essence of my point in starting this thread,,,,The way we are handling this threat, and its a real threat to our way of life, call me paranoid if you want, but it is....anyway, the way we are handling this threat, is a joke.   [email protected], no disrespect meant, but i dont even understand your posts. WTF does a little girl getting hit by a stray bullet, or a grandmother having a bad reaction to medicine, have to do with a terrorist blowing up an airplane or a subway train? You are talking about random, unintentional acts, vs a deliberate attempt to hurt a large amount of people.   In fact, what do all these statistics mean? If i am on a train, and the guy next to me pushes a button strapped to his d*** and vaporizes me, i dont care about statistics. If you think that is far fetched, then you are naive.[/quote]
Thank you! You just quoted me.
Dec 28, 2009 5:08 am

So i did, my bad. At least thats the way i take your quote (which i thought was Moraens-too many quoters quoting quoters quoting quoters)

   So i guess we agree. The government is screwing this whole thing up. The way i take your quote, why bother taking my shoes off, if the govt is acting like it doesnt matter and they are letting the real bad guys on the planes. They dont want to profile, its politically incorrect. They mirandize war criminals, they again, are more worried about being politically correct than catching the bad guys. Or did i take your quote out of context?
Dec 28, 2009 5:25 am

I guess what I’m saying is that before we start torturing Muslims as they board the plane - let’s get the basic crap right.

How many times during the past 8 years did a plane turn back, in mid air, because there was someone on board who was on the terrorist watch list. (note: the plane is already in the air)

Now we have this guy whose father gave a tip 4 weeks ago that he may be involved in terrorist organizations and DHS missed him. There is no excuse for this. This is what makes me angry.

Profiling, political correctness and Miranda rights are minor issues to me…the fact that this guy got on a plane with an explosive really makes me angry.

Dec 28, 2009 1:16 pm

Ok.  I’ll agree with you on this.  DHS is crap.

I will say the reason that he wasn’t on the watch list is because we are afraid of denying a person with a Muslim name a spot on a plane.  Imagine the backlash against the administration. 

THAT is what should make you angry.  Once again, we will not do what it takes because we are afraid of other peoples’ opinions.

Dec 28, 2009 10:36 pm

Still - i 100% agree with everything in your last post except the last sentence. And the reason is that the stuff in the last sentence is why these guys get away with the crap that they do

Overall i think we are on the same page.

Dec 28, 2009 11:40 pm

For the record, the administration had nothing to do with the boarding procedures in Nigeria and Amsterdam.  To say that our current administration was afraid of negative publicity of letting on a Muslim passenger who was on a watch list would be valid if the flight originated in the US. 

  With that being said, racial profiling absolutely needs to happen.  Every Arab/Muslim looking person with a funny name (myself included) should go through extra security measures and there shouldn't be a problem about it.  But the real solution is proper security checks before boarding a plane and here is the reason why.  AQ is actively recruting non Arabs to do their dirty work and they easily go under the radar than I would.  If we just profile, they slip through.  If proper checks are done, they don't slip through.  The way to properly check is to have actual military/law enforcement conducting checks and not fat overweight rejects like TSA who have no clue what they're doing.  People should expect to wait for HOURS to get properly screened and if they complain and moan, get them the hell out of the airport.  Very limited carryon bags (only diapers for babies, medicine for old people, no laptops, etc). 
Dec 28, 2009 11:46 pm

And instead of wasting money on raising the salaries of Congress and pork projects,spend billions to hire qualified Air Marshals so that every US flight has at least two trained Marshals with M4's and 9mm's to put hot lead in anyone that even moves funny.  Not these stupid rules that they can't get up for the last hour of the flight; that is just so idiotic.   

Dec 29, 2009 12:02 am

[quote=army13A] For the record, the administration had nothing to do with the boarding procedures in Nigeria and Amsterdam. To say that our current administration was afraid of negative publicity of letting on a Muslim passenger who was on a watch list would be valid if the flight originated in the US.



With that being said, racial profiling absolutely needs to happen. Every Arab/Muslim looking person with a funny name (myself included) should go through extra security measures and there shouldn’t be a problem about it. But the real solution is proper security checks before boarding a plane and here is the reason why. AQ is actively recruting non Arabs to do their dirty work and they easily go under the radar than I would. If we just profile, they slip through. If proper checks are done, they don’t slip through. The way to properly check is to have actual military/law enforcement conducting checks and not fat overweight rejects like TSA who have no clue what they’re doing. People should expect to wait for HOURS to get properly screened and if they complain and moan, get them the hell out of the airport. Very limited carryon bags (only diapers for babies, medicine for old people, no laptops, etc). [/quote]



That’s not entirely correct. Passenger manifests are approved by the airlines. Especially international. If the U.S. was told that a man might be a possible radical (maybe we should believe the guy’s dad for crying out loud!) and they put him on the DO NOT LET THIS GUY ON A PLANE (there is a list for that btw), then he would not have been allowed on the plane. He flew under his real name. That’s a problem with the administration.



Whether it was done because they were afraid of pissing someone off, or simply because they are incompetent (I’m 50/50), I don’t know. What I do know is that when you create an environment that we are willing to do ANYTHING to stop terror, people become afraid.



Like someone said, in our business you have to be willing to do anything. When you go around apologizing and talk about how we’re going to play nice and talk and have tea, then you create an environment that allows people to maybe get a little bold.



Just like my wife’s ex-husband. He thought he could continue to bully her for months after we were married. When I had a nice aggressive conversation in which I told him that I would NOT tolerate him even raising his voice slightly to her, we haven’t had a problem.



As for Congress - pay raises and campaign finance reform. Here is my idea to get them to change:



Start a fund where everybody contributes $5. Which would be over a $1 billion. Lobby Congress to pass a good campaign finance and lower their pay. Here is the catch. If it does NOT pass, the $1 billion goes to the political party that has the highest percentage of votes in FAVOR of the bill.



I will bet anybody $1 million dollars that you can get it passed if you do that.
Dec 29, 2009 12:26 am
Moraen:



That’s not entirely correct. Passenger manifests are approved by the airlines. Especially international. If the U.S. was told that a man might be a possible radical (maybe we should believe the guy’s dad for crying out loud!) and they put him on the DO NOT LET THIS GUY ON A PLANE (there is a list for that btw), then he would not have been allowed on the plane. He flew under his real name. That’s a problem with the administration.

His name went on a list in McLean and got lost in the abyss.  I don't think it had anything to do with the administration.  It's the lazy government workers who don't give a rats ass about anything and who don't take their jobs seriously.  For example, two of my close friends are State Troopers.  We were coming back from a night out on the town when this really shady car was driving recklessly on the highway and one of my friends being an undercover detective realized that it was probably a car that had illegal drugs and a drug dealer.  He called in to his station at around 2:50am as we were about 10 miles away from the station to get one of his buddies who was on shift to go out and pursue.  He told them everything in full detail and I was getting excited because I haven't had any Hooah action since my Army days.  Do you know the response we get? "Hey man, we're off sh*t in ten minutes and we just pulled back into the station.  We already started our paperwork to finish the shift." WTF???? We were giving these guys a nice heads up as their station was right on the highway.  Take them five minutes to get geared back up and head out because I've done that PLENTY OF TIMES in Iraq.  But these guys were lazy as snails.  That's government workers for you.  When I got calls like that in Iraq, I turned right around without hesitation.    You can say he is apologizing and making us look weak but I lived overseas for five years.  When me and my buddies went out away from our military installations and had to lie to people about being American ( we were Canadian medical students was our story), that's a problem.  It had nothing to do with us not being proud Americans.  Every single World Cup match the US played, we had our HUGE American flag right downtown in the city we lived.  But once we ventured out into other parts of Europe (Bulgaria, England, Czech Republic), we had to worry about our safety.  I do believe that the US is the best country in the world but other countries think that about their own countries as well.  So when we sh*t on the rest of the world, it does affect the Americans who are living in other countries and that isn't cool.    I don't blame this administration for this.  When Obama gave the order to shoot the Somali pirates, was that pussyfooting? And for the record, I'm not a big Obama fan but I don't blame everything on him like my hard core Republican friends just like I didn't blame Bush for everything as my hard core Democrat friends. 
Dec 29, 2009 1:17 am
Moraen:

[[email protected]].[/quote]Then, do you believe Russia would be better off if they were more violent? Demonstrated more power?  If so, then tell me how this did not prevent the Nord-Ost Siege or Beslan?No show of military power will dissuade someone who believes they are Davy against Goliath. …and in the flat world, Davy has access to some powerful weapons. You should be afraid of that. [/quote]

Russia is violent. Look at Georgia.

Russia’s issues stem from things other than violence. Nobody wants to fcuk with Vlad. How is Russia any different than most Western countries as far as extremists are concerned? I’ll answer that for you. They are afraid of Putin. Terrified of him. They know that if they so much as twitch, he will bring the full power of the Russian Bear upon them. That is, they THINK that he will. Threat of violence.

David and Goliath doesn’t apply here (fiction). Goliath was big and stupid. I am afraid of Davy with powerful weapons. Because we are not doing enough to stop it. That’s WHY you should be afraid Still.

  Yeah....maybe so...but the dang dog was so damned cute!    
Dec 29, 2009 2:13 am

If the administration bears no burden for this incident, then thats a problem right there.

I can't believe the U.S. Government has no say, or influence over flights that come into our country. Sure maybe not all the fault lays at our door, but we have to be able to control who crosses the border into our country.   As for your idea of the military taking over the jobs of the retards that inspect our shoes at the airports, i think thats an awesome idea. Something i would HAPPILY pay higher taxes to pay for. What a novel idea, the military protecting our homeland in wartime! Kudos for that one.
Dec 29, 2009 3:05 am
army13A:

[quote=Moraen] That’s not entirely correct. Passenger manifests are approved by the airlines. Especially international. If the U.S. was told that a man might be a possible radical (maybe we should believe the guy’s dad for crying out loud!) and they put him on the DO NOT LET THIS GUY ON A PLANE (there is a list for that btw), then he would not have been allowed on the plane. He flew under his real name. That’s a problem with the administration.





His name went on a list in McLean and got lost in the abyss. I don’t think it had anything to do with the administration. It’s the lazy government workers who don’t give a rats ass about anything and who don’t take their jobs seriously. For example, two of my close friends are State Troopers. We were coming back from a night out on the town when this really shady car was driving recklessly on the highway and one of my friends being an undercover detective realized that it was probably a car that had illegal drugs and a drug dealer. He called in to his station at around 2:50am as we were about 10 miles away from the station to get one of his buddies who was on shift to go out and pursue. He told them everything in full detail and I was getting excited because I haven’t had any Hooah action since my Army days. Do you know the response we get? "Hey man, we’re off sht in ten minutes and we just pulled back into the station. We already started our paperwork to finish the shift." WTF??? We were giving these guys a nice heads up as their station was right on the highway. Take them five minutes to get geared back up and head out because I’ve done that PLENTY OF TIMES in Iraq. But these guys were lazy as snails. That’s government workers for you. When I got calls like that in Iraq, I turned right around without hesitation.



You can say he is apologizing and making us look weak but I lived overseas for five years. When me and my buddies went out away from our military installations and had to lie to people about being American ( we were Canadian medical students was our story), that’s a problem. It had nothing to do with us not being proud Americans. Every single World Cup match the US played, we had our HUGE American flag right downtown in the city we lived. But once we ventured out into other parts of Europe (Bulgaria, England, Czech Republic), we had to worry about our safety. I do believe that the US is the best country in the world but other countries think that about their own countries as well. So when we sht on the rest of the world, it does affect the Americans who are living in other countries and that isn’t cool.



I don’t blame this administration for this. When Obama gave the order to shoot the Somali pirates, was that pussyfooting? And for the record, I’m not a big Obama fan but I don’t blame everything on him like my hard core Republican friends just like I didn’t blame Bush for everything as my hard core Democrat friends. [/quote]



As a military officer you know that sh^t rolls down hill brother. But lazy government workers = lazy leadership.



Squared away battalions usually have squared away BCs.
Dec 29, 2009 3:40 am

[quote=Moraen] [quote=army13A] [quote=Moraen] That’s not entirely correct. Passenger manifests are approved by the airlines. Especially international. If the U.S. was told that a man might be a possible radical (maybe we should believe the guy’s dad for crying out loud!) and they put him on the DO NOT LET THIS GUY ON A PLANE (there is a list for that btw), then he would not have been allowed on the plane. He flew under his real name. That’s a problem with the administration. [/quote]



His name went on a list in McLean and got lost in the abyss.  I don't think it had anything to do with the administration.  It's the lazy government workers who don't give a rats ass about anything and who don't take their jobs seriously.  For example, two of my close friends are State Troopers.  We were coming back from a night out on the town when this really shady car was driving recklessly on the highway and one of my friends being an undercover detective realized that it was probably a car that had illegal drugs and a drug dealer.  He called in to his station at around 2:50am as we were about 10 miles away from the station to get one of his buddies who was on shift to go out and pursue.  He told them everything in full detail and I was getting excited because I haven't had any Hooah action since my Army days.  Do you know the response we get? "Hey man, we're off sh*t in ten minutes and we just pulled back into the station.  We already started our paperwork to finish the shift." WTF???? We were giving these guys a nice heads up as their station was right on the highway.  Take them five minutes to get geared back up and head out because I've done that PLENTY OF TIMES in Iraq.  But these guys were lazy as snails.  That's government workers for you.  When I got calls like that in Iraq, I turned right around without hesitation. 
 
You can say he is apologizing and making us look weak but I lived overseas for five years.  When me and my buddies went out away from our military installations and had to lie to people about being American ( we were Canadian medical students was our story), that's a problem.  It had nothing to do with us not being proud Americans.  Every single World Cup match the US played, we had our HUGE American flag right downtown in the city we lived.  But once we ventured out into other parts of Europe (Bulgaria, England, Czech Republic), we had to worry about our safety.  I do believe that the US is the best country in the world but other countries think that about their own countries as well.  So when we sh*t on the rest of the world, it does affect the Americans who are living in other countries and that isn't cool. 
 
I don't blame this administration for this.  When Obama gave the order to shoot the Somali pirates, was that pussyfooting? And for the record, I'm not a big Obama fan but I don't blame everything on him like my hard core Republican friends just like I didn't blame Bush for everything as my hard core Democrat friends.  [/quote]

As a military officer you know that sh^t rolls down hill brother. But lazy government workers = lazy leadership.

Squared away battalions usually have squared away BCs.[/quote]   Yeah!  This never would have happened under Republican rule.  Um, except... that it did.  Oh wait, never mind - that was Clinton's fault.    You can't blame an idiot for not knowing he's an idiot.
Dec 29, 2009 3:41 am

[quote=Moraen]Start a fund where everybody contributes $5. Which would be over a $1 billion. Lobby Congress to pass a good campaign finance and lower their pay. Here is the catch. If it does NOT pass, the $1 billion goes to the political party that has the highest percentage of votes in FAVOR of the bill.



I will bet anybody $1 million dollars that you can get it passed if you do that.[/quote]
I love this idea, except I am ok with what they get paid.
Campaign finance is where priorities and incentives are completely out of order.