Text Book Head and Shoulders Pattern
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So ron what are you going to do when this short covering rally ends and the market drops back 20%? Ride it down and let your clients get crushed telling them everything will be alright? Doing nothing is worse than doing something in bear markets
That is exactly what I am going to do if that in fact happens and I hope it does. 85% of my clients are under age 55 so I want them to acquire as much as they possibly can at the lowest prices they possibly can. We will rebalance down there if the allocations have shifted enough. Are you saying you are taking everyone out of the market here ? If not where ? Where are you going to buy back in ?
I use active management and have no clients that DCA into mutual funds like yourself, however I rotated a good portion out of equities into fixed income last year and cash type investments when the yield curve became inverted, have purchased stocks ,commodities and foreign etfs at attractive prices since then and i have taken profits when needed. I am more proactive than reactive to market forces. I am not a buy and HOPE advisor.
Late to the party? This is where a Financial Professional comes in. Or you could just tell them how many shares they are acquiring and to ignore the balance, it's only a loss if you sell!The average investor jumps into smcap in 2000 (or just tech companies because their uncles nephews teacher made 100k in a day), treads water for 2 years and then sees it go down 20%. They say “I could have made 10% had I been in bonds, I am investing in bonds, this economy and this market sucks.” They are always late to the party.
You clowns still wont answer me. Are you getting out now ? When will you get back in ? Are you waiting to sell ? Were you like everyone else who thought we were going back down once we bounced back to dow 8k ? The reason you guys don’t answer is because you don’t know. You guys have no clue. Did you guys also sell your houses, rent, and you are now looking to buy a foreclosure because you predicted that too ?
First of all, you talk about the “market” like we buy the market. It’s called security selection, and if you do it right, it works. Who cares what the Dow is doing? Or the S & P for that matter.
If you start listening to talking heads or if you let mutual fund managers touch your clients’ money, those may be concerns.
Who can't read? You are a dunce. I scaled back my clients equity exposure greatly in Oct 2000, went back in April 03. Got out in Jan 08, back in last week. Missed tops, missed bottoms, have clients that are far happier and better off for it. Will the market go up from here? I don't know. What I do know is that I missed a 30% downturn and have a large margin for error before I "catch up" to your losses.You clowns still wont answer me. Are you getting out now ? When will you get back in ? Are you waiting to sell ? Were you like everyone else who thought we were going back down once we bounced back to dow 8k ? The reason you guys don’t answer is because you don’t know. You guys have no clue. Did you guys also sell your houses, rent, and you are now looking to buy a foreclosure because you predicted that too ?
So you pride yourself on the movement of your clients in and out of equities, but if you got a referral tomorrow you don’t have a market viewpoint. Sounds like a good strategy.
So you prospect, manage clients, put together full financial plans, and select the individual securities. Oh, I forgot you "own" and RIA so you don't do anything, but write your thesis and collect a check. What are you buying now ? What are you selling now ? What is going to lead the way the 2nd half of the year ?First of all, you talk about the “market” like we buy the market. It’s called security selection, and if you do it right, it works. Who cares what the Dow is doing? Or the S & P for that matter.
If you start listening to talking heads or if you let mutual fund managers touch your clients’ money, those may be concerns.
Keeping with the you can't read theme, I could have sworn that I typed that I got back in the market last week. Kinda resembles a market viewpoint. I will tell you what my viewpoint isn't. "Buy today and keep buying regardless because in 20 years you will be ok, at least that is what has happened in the past."So you pride yourself on the movement of your clients in and out of equities, but if you got a referral tomorrow you don’t have a market viewpoint. Sounds like a good strategy.
And you also said you didn't know if the market will go up from here So which is it ?
Nevermind. You have convinced me. Asset allocation, rebalancing, buy and hold are all dead.
Following this thread is like watching the business channels. Everybody says they see great opportunities in this or that but nobody ever narrows it down to a specific ticker symbol and time frame.
Ron every way to skin a cat can be proven and disproven. As long as the US is a strong growing nation only an unlucky dumbass can't make money over time. The market has and will go up more then down. Just do what you do and keep your clients best interest in mind. They will be better off in the end. But do know that the higher net worth clients expect more and can afford to invest in opportunities that give greater returns for example writing options, SMA's, Hedge funds, etc.[quote=Moraen]First of all, you talk about the “market” like we buy the market. It’s called security selection, and if you do it right, it works. Who cares what the Dow is doing? Or the S & P for that matter. If you start listening to talking heads or if you let mutual fund managers touch your clients’ money, those may be concerns.
So you prospect, manage clients, put together full financial plans, and select the individual securities. Oh, I forgot you “own” and RIA so you don’t do anything, but write your thesis and collect a check. What are you buying now ? What are you selling now ? What is going to lead the way the 2nd half of the year ?[/quote]
Yes. I do collect a check(s). You have to limit the number of securities you follow, otherwise you can get overwhelmed. It’s simple, really. I actually don’t do a whole lot of prospecting and financial plans are pretty easy to put together once you have the software in place. I mean, seriously? Is it that hard? If you want to know what I do, PM me and I’ll be happy to share. Of course, you’ll have to sign a contract and pay me $5k, but I’m sure you wouldn’t have a problem with that.
I think this argument doesn’t really matter. I will go back to the whole your method is the global warming of the financial services industry. People who are fanatics are fanatics. The other side (Me, Gaddock, Jebediah) are considered “deniers” (quite a repulsive term!).
You are going to continue to do what you think is best, and we are going to continue to do what we think is best. I don’t think there is anything wrong with your approach. I just don’t think people become wealthy like that.
Oh and a thesis is for a Master’s. Dissertation is for Ph.D.
And it’s not about prediction it’s about smart trading. I don’t predict anything.
I would say market timing or whatever it is you guys do is the global warming of today's industry, not buy and hold. Global warming isn't something that has been around for ever and now people are starting to doubt it. Either way who cares. As ND says this thread is getting old.
[quote=Ron 14]
I would say market timing or whatever it is you guys do is the global warming of today’s industry, not buy and hold. Global warming isn’t something that has been around for ever and now people are starting to doubt it. Either way who cares. As ND says this thread is getting old.
[/quote]
People have been making money in the market using strategies other than buy and hold for the longest.
Buy and hold and asset allocation are models developed from theories a while back. Global warming models have been around for a while.
And people are starting to doubt MPT.
I only bring up the GW debate because I was having a long debate the other day at Rotary. But it’s the same thing. “Our way is the only right way, you other people are deniers”.
I BELIEVE in your approach, for what it does. You just don’t believe in mine. Which is fine. Ok, last word to someone else and I’m fine letting the thread die.
Actually I was doing just that but was told that doing so may get FINRA on me as a non Series 7 may construe it as advice. I wish we could. I would love to see / share ideas that are tangible.Following this thread is like watching the business channels. Everybody says they see great opportunities in this or that but nobody ever narrows it down to a specific ticker symbol and time frame.
[quote=Ron 14]
And you also said you didn't know if the market will go up from here So which is it ?
[/quote] I can't see the future, can you? What does this have to do with this conversation? This is what is funny about buy and holders, they say unless you know what is going to happen 10 minutes from now 100% of the time, buy and hold is the only way to go. And since no one has a crystal ball, buy and hold is the only way to go. This very thread started with Gaddock talking about a H&S pattern and you jumped in saying "how did that work out for your clients?" Tech analysis is not perfect, nothing is. My clients are in the black from 1/1/2008 unitl now. How are your clients doing? The indicator I use went positive last week. Does this mean the market will go straight up? No. Does this mean that the market could not go straight down from here and the signal could turn negative again? No. What it means is that a $250m account on 01/01/2008 is worth more than that today instead of being worth $175m.