Next 20% Move?
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Is it up or down ?
I’ll bite. 20% will be up but not for a while. We might see 10-12% down before we see 20% up.
A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction.[quote=Ron 14] A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction. [/quote] I'd be pissed too if my advisor thought the market would be under 4000 and didn't make my money safer. Please sense the sarcasm and understand that was a joke![quote=snaggletooth][quote=Ron 14] A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction. [/quote] I'd be pissed too if my advisor thought the market would be under 4000 and didn't make my money safer. Please sense the sarcasm and understand that was a joke![/quote]I'd be pissed if my advisor took advantage of my fear and sold me a product that was capped at 6-7% annual return when the market was down 50% from its highs...especially after the market rallied 20% in 30 days.
That wasn't a joke.
[quote=HymanRoth] [quote=snaggletooth][quote=Ron 14] A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction. [/quote] I'd be pissed too if my advisor thought the market would be under 4000 and didn't make my money safer. Please sense the sarcasm and understand that was a joke![/quote]I'd be pissed if my advisor took advantage of my fear and sold me a product that was capped at 6-7% annual return when the market was down 50% from its highs...especially after the market rallied 20% in 30 days.
That wasn't a joke.
[/quote] You're a douchebag. There was one point in time where I respected what you wrote. But you don't know me, my clients, or what portion of their money I manage. You also are ignorant to the fact I wouldn't ever put money in something that was capped out at 6-7% annual return. Moreover, you have no idea what portion annuity/fixed, index, or variable, makes up my book. I hope you drive off a cliff on your way home tonight.
I’d say up and before the year ends, although I’m expecting the typical retracement, which could come close to 20% on the downside (I’m guessing between 15-18%). Get your asset allocation back to normal by the end of June…most of the action will probably be in the 2nd half of the year.
Actually most of that is just a regurgitation of what LPL's research dept. is saying, although I wouldn't repeat it if I didn't agree.Hopefully that is a joke like your picture is..Up, 20% by the end of the year.
Joined: March 24 2006
Posts: 285 Post Options Post Reply
Quote Incredible Hulk
Edit Post Quote Reply Posted: Feb. 20 2009 at 11:52am
A couple reasons. I’ll start with my gut, based on what feels like capitulation from personal client interactions. Despair in the media, on wall street, in DC, and on main street all point to a “low point” for me. I went out to eat at a nice restaurant and it was completely full. I wait in line on Thursday (not a weekend) at Best Buy that is 20 deep. I spent $40 on some computer cord. The world is not ending. People are still spending. Every time (as if I’ve seen more than the (2000-2002 mrkt) there is 0 hope to be found and the bears are smiling as if they can’t be wrong, then we are at/near the bottom. Investments cycle. The longs think we can’t be wrong, then we are wrong for awhile. The shorts begin to think they can’t be wrong, then they are wrong for awhile. My gut (whiich has been wrong) tells me we are there.
From a fundamental standpoint. I think companies throw everything and the kitchen sink in for writedowns on the first quarter and pushes s&p earnings to $50-$55 an annualized basis giving us a current pe near 13. I think by 3rd or 4th quarter, the writedowns are no longer there and with even a slight uptick from all this money they’re throwing into the system we see quarterly earnings closer to $65 annualized. Based on future expectations, what will be then current valuations and having the worst behind us, I think 15 is a resonable PE for the market we finally see the cash flow in from the sidelines pushing us to 1000 on the s&p.
I tell my clients I’m an eternal optimist. Unfortunately, I’ve been wrong the last decade, but I think the next decade looks very promising (see the optimism).
Feel free to shoot holes through my reasoning. I spend my days selling against the media, I might as well sell against other brokers too.
My Post from February - 2 weeks before the “current” bottom - and my still current belief of reaching 1000 on the s&p by year end. Only 15% more to go…
[quote=iceco1d][quote=Ron 14] A guy asked me today and I told him I dont really care because I know what direction the next 50% move will be and it pissed him off. Oh well.
jkl I would agree with you if I had to make a prediction. [/quote] The guy was probably pissed because you told him the same thing when the Dow dropped below 14,000... Gotta watch when you use that line these days! [/quote] Actually you dont. Wasn't it you that said you don't have any clients down 50% ? Most who were diversified never went down that much. Although 25-30% isn't fun it sure doesn't prevent you from using that line.Up. Inches upward, turn the gas to low on the cold water and slowly boil the frog. There could panic buying, later
Let me write that down. So if you have a neutral position, you don't care which direction the market goes. Come on. Are we going to have this conversation again?If you’re market neutral it doesn’t matter.