Okay!:). God bless you, Devil not whoever you are. I'm crossing myself.

[quote=YHWY]that you had to delete the thread instead of offering a thoughtful retort
 I have no idea who you people think I am, but I AM NOT Bobby or Ferris.
  This reinforces my assertion that you are stupid (don't worry you're not alone here). Your line of argument also reinforces my assertion that you cannot compete in the arena of ideas. I'll post any damn place I please, thank you.
[/quote]

Uh, yhwy, I realize you're not Bobsy or Ferris.  The more you post, the more I question your cognitive ability to even operate a website.

I don't care if you don't agree with me.  Really.  I don't care if you think I'm "stupid", or that you think I'm not competitive in your "Arena of Ideas". 

All you're doing is taking time away from your wonderful website to be a troll here.

[quote=mikebutler222]

[quote=skeedaddy2]I will admit I was light into

the Fed … [/quote]

“A little”? Haven’t you been a voice of doom and gloom? Excuse me if I’ve

mistaken you for someone else.

Bill Gross pointed out that the last two times the Fed lowered by 1/2 point

on the 1st cut, the US went into a recession.



The question is growth, inflation or recession…what’s your call and how are

you positioning yourself and your clients?

The question is growth, inflation or recession…what’s your call and how are

you positioning yourself and your clients?
 Continued, sustained, long term growth with contained inflation within historical norms… Unless federal tax rates are changed (raised) to become more of an enemy to the US economy than they are now. In that case, the US economy will face potential recession, which will be blamed on everything except mistaken federal tax policy by those responsible. Left to its own devices, the US economy will continue to be the best long-term model for the world due to its citizens’ innate entrepreneurial spirit which rewards prudent risk taking. On this basis, I recommend my clients (mostly retired blue-collar types) continue to invest in balanced portfolios, using balanced mutual funds (American Funds and Franklin Templeton families) along with some of the very attractive new syndicate preferred issues we are beginning to see. For the more risk averse clients, I recommend using the Hartford Leaders variable annuity to take advantage of the same great fund management (American & Franklin) but including Hartford’s great living benefits, which guarantee lifetime income without giving up control of the lump sum. This model may be altered in the future if it looks like destructive (political) forces may be about to confront the US economy.

 This is “My arena of ideas”, who’d like to join me?

[quote=skeedaddy2]Bill Gross pointed out that the last two times the Fed lowered by 1/2 point
on the 1st cut, the US went into a recession.

The question is growth, inflation or recession...what's your call and how are
you positioning yourself and your clients?[/quote]

My call is it doesn’t much matter. No one call prognosticate with enough accuracy to prove to me they're not doing more harm than good with their projections. I didn’t let the decline in February knock me out of the market, I didn’t let the step rise in mid-Summer cause me to think we were going to the moon, I didn’t let the following decline shake me out again. I am perpetually cautiously optimistic, and more oriented to my client’s goals than to some day to day imperative that won’t mean squat two years down the road. That’s been my SOP for the 15 years I’ve been doing this.

Now, I will admit I continue to avoid long term bonds, I think TIPs for income investors are a perverse joke, and I won’t be bottom fishing in places like home builders any time soon. I’m not all that interested in making sure I’m in at the bottom and out at the very top. I’m happy (and my clients as well) to get that nice, solid, conservative middle gain. I doubt we’re going into a recession, and I doubt inflation, at this point, is something that should be keeping you up at night.

[quote=skeedaddy2]Bill Gross pointed out that the last two times the Fed lowered by 1/2 point
on the 1st cut, the US went into a recession.

[/quote]

Isn't Bill Gross known for calling 6 of the last recessions and for his constant "I'm not being paid enough for my bonds, given inflation risks"? Seriously, I think the guy's vastly over-rated.

He’s definitely overrated when he prognosticates on the stock market.  Wasn’t he calling for a 5-6000 Dow in the not too distant past?

As I recall he called the recent correction almost to the day. Some China market indexes are up almost 100% 12 month trailing. You wanna see a new paradigm, stick around, might want to make sure the old fixed portfolio allocation is properly planted and watered.

BFD…a broken clock is right twice a day.  He has made some idiotic predictions on the equity market, so any prescient calls are probably little more than dumb luck.  I’ll give him some props on bonds, but he hasn’t shown a good grasp of equity markets as far as I’m concerned.

Well he’s only a bond guy and every major public appearance will only sweeten his speaker fees when he decides to bag the commute. Nice reminder about the clock.

[quote=YHWY]The question is growth, inflation or recession...what's your call and how are
you positioning yourself and your clients?
 Continued, sustained, long term growth with contained inflation within historical norms..... Unless federal tax rates are changed (raised) to become more of an enemy to the US economy than they are now. In that case, the US economy will face potential recession, which will be blamed on everything except mistaken federal tax policy by those responsible. Left to its own devices, the US economy will continue to be the best long-term model for the world due to its citizens' innate entrepreneurial spirit which rewards prudent risk taking. On this basis, I recommend my clients (mostly retired blue-collar types) continue to invest in balanced portfolios, using balanced mutual funds (American Funds and Franklin Templeton families) along with some of the very attractive new syndicate preferred issues we are beginning to see. For the more risk averse clients, I recommend using the Hartford Leaders variable annuity to take advantage of the same great fund management (American & Franklin) but including Hartford's great living benefits, which guarantee lifetime income without giving up control of the lump sum. This model may be altered in the future if it looks like destructive (political) forces may be about to confront the US economy.

 This is "My arena of ideas", who'd like to join me?
[/quote]

Your much-hyped "ARENA OF IDEAS" is 2 fund companies and an annuity? 

Every client that walks in your door must have to check 1 of 3 boxes: 

My financial needs will be sufficiently met with the following investment product:

[ ] American

[ ] Franklin

[ ] Other (Other = VA with Franklin & American subaccounts)

Come on Big, he’s God.

[quote=skeedaddy2]Bill Gross pointed out that the last two times the Fed lowered by 1/2 point
on the 1st cut, the US went into a recession.

The question is growth, inflation or recession...what's your call and how are
you positioning yourself and your clients?[/quote]

I make it a point to not predict markets, interest rates, or my wife's moods. So far that's worked out pretty good for me and my clients.

Taco,

My clients consitently beat the major indices, they have investment plans that they can understand and an advisor to whom they are very loyal. I've saved most of them from very "complex" and "imaginative" former brokers who sold them crap neither understood and lost the clients lots of money while making the brokers piles.

Great arguement on your part, though. (and I thought you couldn't compete in the arena of ideas). I'd love to hear all about your investment plans that beat the typical American Funds I use.

[quote=YHWY]

Taco,

My clients consitently beat the major indices, they have investment plans that they can understand and an advisor to whom they are very loyal. I've saved most of them from very "complex" and "imaginative" former brokers who sold them crap neither understood and lost the clients lots of money while making the brokers piles.

Great arguement on your part, though. (and I thought you couldn't compete in the arena of ideas). I'd love to hear all about your investment plans that beat the typical American Funds I use.

[/quote]

I don't think investment plans need to be complex or simple, just so long as they help the client meet their investment goals.  I was just poking fun at you because you're so serious about hyping your "ARENA OF IDEAS", which we now know includes a total of 3 ideas: 2 fund co.'s and a VA offering those 2 fund co.'s.

As far as you asking to hear my investment ideas, you've spent the last few posts telling me how 'stupid' I am, so I assume you're being sarcastic.  But good luck with everything else.

"I make it a point to not predict markets, interest rates, or my wife's moods. So far that's worked out pretty good for me and my clients."

Sorry about the wife.

Taco,
 When/if you ever manage to figure out what works in this business, you will stick with it and, with any luck at all, get REALLY good at selling it.

Taco,
 Also, You are stupid and prove it every time you post. Hint: I don’t really want to hear your investment plans, I was being sarcastic. You may go now.

[quote=BondGuy]

[quote=skeedaddy2]Bill Gross pointed out that the last two times the Fed lowered by 1/2 point
on the 1st cut, the US went into a recession.

The question is growth, inflation or recession...what's your call and how are
you positioning yourself and your clients?[/quote]

I make it a point to not predict markets, interest rates, or my wife's moods. So far that's worked out pretty good for me and my clients.

[/quote]

Your clients are affected by your wife's moods?       

I don't make predictions either.  None of us has a crystal ball.   BUT, our clients do expect us to be on top of our game, up with the news and be able to make changes if/when needed.