According to their own rulebook, fed policy makers have enough reasons to hike in September. The volatility in the beginning of 2016 and uncertainty about market's reaction to a Brexit forced the fed not to do so earlier. As long as the market keeps calm the fed has a good ground to move on. I don't want to say that the U.S. economy is in good shape - these are just the numbers the fed wants to be in a certain range. So what does the fed's checklist for a rate hike say?
- Unemployment: Average monthly job growth has been 190,000 over the past three months. The unemployment rate at 4.9% couldn't be much better.
- Inflation: The drag from the low oil price is fading. The core PCE seems to stabilize - approaching the 2%-target.
- GDP: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual
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