"Things should be ok despite the obvious headwinds" is most assuredly not a good investment thesis.
You want tailwinds, not headwinds.
You'd never buy an asset if someone came to you with a one sentence pitch centered around an asset's supposed resiliency in the face of adverse market conditions.
That might be a good pitch if the fundamental picture was sound. That is, you might choose an investment based on solid fundamentals and expected tailwinds and then, as a kind of confirmatory afterthought, assess how it would hold up if conditions happened to deteriorate.
But you'd never buy an asset knowing that it faces headwinds strictly on the basis of that asset's expected resilience. That's absurd, right? It would be like buying beachfront property a week before a hurricane is expected to make landfall because the particular property you're eyeing happens to have held up well during past hurricanes.
Well,…