By Dr. Brian Jacobsen, CFA, CFP
If you think the Federal Reserve (Fed) won't hike rates before the presidential election on November 8, think again. Of the 60 rate hikes that have happened since 1980, 32% have occurred in election years. Considering presidential elections happen every four years (25% of the years), the data suggests the Fed is actually more than happy to hike in an election year.
The Fed has three more meetings in 2016: in September, November, and December. Many people argue that the Fed won't hike in September or November because-in addition to the fact the data doesn't support a rate hike-it's just too close to the election. I think that second argument doesn't hold water. If the data supports hiking rates, the Fed will hike whether there's a presidential election or not.
What does the data suggest about the Fed's willingness to move in an election… Read More …