Forecasting the New Year is a curious tradition. Much evidence suggests that no one does it both accurately and consistently, yet everyone keeps trying. Just as no war plan survives contact with the enemy, no investment plan survives contact with February.
But the real value of an annual forecast is strategic. It helps you set priorities, define important issues, and think about what you should anticipate and what you can safely ignore. That's a good exercise to go through periodically, and January is as good a time as any.
I gave you my own thoughts last week (see "Skeptically Optimistic").
Today, we'll review several other forecasts from people who deserve your attention. Of necessity, I must leave out some good ones, but I think the ones I cover will give you plenty of useful information.
Gavekal has a spectrum of views
The Gavekal team-led by co-founders Charles…