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10 Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Nov. 8, 2022)

Americans’ rent-to-income ratios have been pushing past the recommended 30 or under percent, reports Multifamily Dive. Prologis is predicting a normalization in leasing rates for industrial real estate next year. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

  1. Rent-to-Income Ratios Push Tower 40%, Some Owners Say “As rents skyrocketed around the country in 2021 and for most of 2022, many metros that once seemed affordable were seeing more Americans devoting more than 30% of their income to housing. If a family is spending more than that amount on housing, the Department of Housing and Urban Development considers them to be ‘cost burdened.’ ‘There are definitely places in America where people are paying 30% to 40% of their income for rent,’ said Ric Campo, CEO of Houston-based apartment REIT Camden. ‘I think that, unfortunately, it tends to be people in the low-income areas.’” (Multifamily Dive)
  2. When Will Beaten Up Real Estate Turn Around? “Commercial real estate isn’t in great shape as an investment, in the U.S. or elsewhere. Real estate investment trusts, the most common way to invest in property, are down 29% this year through last week, according to FTSE EPRA/NAREIT’s global index. That compares unfavorably with stocks in general worldwide: The MSCI ACWI benchmark was off just 21%. So when will things turn around for these REITs, which cover everything from offices to apartments to warehouses? Conventional wisdom says the economy, now seeming to teeter on the edge of a recession, will have to be expanding once more. But a Northern Trust Asset Management concludes that now-burgeoning interest rates also need to settle down.” (Chief Investment Officer)
  3. Interest Rate Hikes Have Dragged CRE Prices Down 13% So Far This Year “Commercial property prices have dropped nearly 13% so far from their most recent peak earlier this year, according to the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index in October, with prices down 7.3% during October alone. The index peaked in May 2022 after climbing out of a pandemic-related crash in 2020, and has been dropping ever since.” (Bisnow)
  4. Commercial Real Estate Return-to-Normal a Welcome Sign “Construction costs are expected to continue to increase next year and put a crimp on commercial real estate developers, but fall more in line with the yearly increases historically seen.” (Crain’s Detroit Business)
  5. Self-Storage Rents Continue to Slow Down “Seasonality is kicking in for the self storage sector, with the recent trend of lowering rates month-over-month continuing in September. The third quarter closed with the average national street rates contracting another 70 basis points, down 1.4 percent. The national average declined $2 on a monthly basis, reaching $138 for standard-sized 10×10 units. Among the top 31 markets tracked by Yardi Matrix, these rates held steady for just three metros—Los Angeles, Pittsburgh and Portland—while Miami saw the largest slump, falling $5 compared to the August figure.” (Multi-Housing News)
  6. Albertsons Faces Outrage in Aisle Five “Want to stoke public anger about rising food prices and corporate greed? Supermarket giant Albertsons, which announced a merger agreement with Kroger Co. last month alongside a generous special dividend payout, has unwittingly done just that. The company was due to distribute $4 billion in special dividends to shareholders Monday but was blocked from doing so last Thursday by a Washington state court’s temporary restraining order. Albertsons said it seeks to overturn the restraint as quickly as possible. Attorneys general of California, Illinois and Washington, D.C., also sought a temporary restraining order last week to stop the dividend payout.” (The Wall Street Journal)
  7. Prologis Says ‘Frenzied Pace’ in Logistics to Normalize in 2023 “The ‘frenzied’ tempo of logistics leasing momentum of recent years is forecast to “normalize,” according to Prologis’ quarterly Industrial Business Indicator (IBI) and True Months Supply (TMS) research report issued last week. Prologis said the pace of decision-making has already slowed ‘and is not expected to reaccelerate due to greater economic uncertainty.’ The firm added that users will have more options as the construction pipeline empties.” (GlobeSt.com)
  8. Greystone Forms Joint Venture with Inlet Real Estate Capital to Anticipate Distressed Market Financing Needs “Greystone, a leading national commercial real estate finance firm, announced that its affiliate, Greystone Commercial Mortgage Capital has formed a joint venture with Inlet Real Estate Capital to provide short-term, floating rate capital solutions for commercial real estate owners. Targeting complex or potentially distressed situations during today’s challenging market, Greystone Inlet Real Estate Capital will provide debt and equity recapitalization solutions for multifamily, industrial, office, mixed use, and other property types, needing additional time and capital in order to execute the business plan and stabilize the property.” (Global Newswire)
  9. Remote Work or Not? How 4 Bay Area Companies Are Tackling the Post-Pandemic Workplace “DoorDash, Atlassian, CloudFlare and Dropbox are among companies adopting new flexible ways of working” (San Francisco Chronicle)
  10. Amazon Rolls Out Electric Delivery Vans in Over 100 Cities Across U.S. “Amazon is delivering U.S. online purchases with more than 1,000 electric vehicles. The e-tail giant has reached a goal it set in July 2022 to deploy electric vans it designed and built in partnership with manufacturer Rivian to deliver packages in U.S. cities including Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Nashville, Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle, and St. Louis. This rollout is the beginning of what Amazon expects to grow into a fleet of 100,000 custom electric delivery vehicles across the U.S. by 2030.” (Chain Store Age)
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