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The Trend Is Your Friend: Grantham Says Stay with Investment Consensus

The Trend Is Your Friend: Grantham Says Stay with Investment Consensus

I love to read GMO's quarterly reports. GMO is a famous money manager founded by Jeremy Grantham. He has become famous by making contrarian moves, such as avoiding technology stocks in the 1990s and bank stocks before the financial crisis. But, according to our mutual fund contributing editor Stan Luxenberg, in a startling speech at the Morningstar conference in June, he warned advisors to beware of straying outside the market consensus. Grantham said that during the 1990s bull market, he lost 60% of his assets under management because clients became impatient with his contrarian approach. Since then, Grantham has been more careful to hedge his bets. Instead of just buying the best bargains, he is diversifying more to give clients results that they can stomach. He told  financial advisors in the audience to stay diversified and do what is necessary to hold onto clients.

I finally got around to reading GMO’s Q2 remarks. Grantham's shareholder letter was a  bearish screed predicting starvation, slow global growth and further terrorist attacks that will disrupt global economic growth, among other things. Here is how investors should position themselves:

“These comments are based on a time horizon of 10 years and beyond. The portfolio investment implications are that investors should expect resource stocks – those with resources in the ground – to outperform over the next several decades as real prices of the resources rise. Farming and forestry, though, are at the top of the list. Serious long-term investors should have a very substantial overweighting in a resource package. I suggest for long-term investors a resource position of at least 30%. Another relative beneficiary of resource pressure is the quality group of equities. Resources are a smaller fraction of final sales than average and higher profit margins make them more resilient to margin pressures.”

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