Bernstein Research Raising Earnings Estimates On TD Ameritrade

We've written extensively about how RIA platforms/custodians have had full pipelines on the back of a continuing trend (not a full-blown, mass-exodus, though) of "breakaway" brokers. We even recently wrote a story about how do-it-yourself brokerages were becoming a force to be reckoned with. We wrote that in November DIY channel had $13.4 trillion in assets and counting. TD Ameritrade (Ticker: AMTD)., the parent of TD Ameritrade Insitutional, posted some good numbers. TD reported today that it had a record amount of net new client asses of about $16 billion, or a 13% ipmrovement over Q4 a year ago.  

Here is Bernstein Reseach's Brad Hintz's summary of AMTD earnings announcement:  

AMTD: Posting Record Net New Asset Flows (PDF Attached)

  • AMTD reported FY Q1'13 EPS of $0.27 versus consensus at $0.24 and our estimate at $0.25, beating forecasts for revenues and expenses. Annualized return on average equity was 13.3% for the quarter, down from 14.8% a year ago.
  • Net new assets grew at a 13% annualized org. growth rate, a record high. The firm also revised its IDA agreement with TD, in favor of an arrangement that benefits AMTD in a low interest rate environment, but also results in higher fees when rates rise.
  • We increase our FY'13 EPS estimate to $1.12 from $1.06 and our FY'14 EPS estimate to $1.28 from $1.26, primarily reflecting the overage and the impact from the revised IDA agreement. We rate the company market-perform with a $20 price target. 
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