Subprime. perfect storm

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Dec 15, 2009 7:32 am

subprime



There is plenty of blame to go around.

the causes are complex and some rooted in actions from many years ago

to place blame on one party is dumb



liberal ideals.    

a home for everyone

level playing field (stop redlining etc)

cra

witch doctor loans (bubba)

fnm was fdr

fre was lbj

(those agencies are really stupid. you cant have it both ways)



CDO's, cdo's squared, siv's etc.: this witch hazel MIT crap WAS very wrong and had its roots is true GREED.



The original idea was a good one.   transfer risk profile.   reduce concentration fo risk in these mortgage pools.   like a science project gone bad, it went really bad.



These things became the black hole that made things really get out of control and spread the pain EVERYWHERE across the globe. I have tried to read about a CDO squared and get a basic understanding. i cant.



i honestly dont think anyone really had a handle on these GD things, the rating agencies step in with the AAA crap



(they dont get ENOUGH blame)



perfect storm.



you dont hear much about it but fre and fnm getting in trouble in the early 90's (accounting crap) was HUGE in allowing the countrywides and quick loans etc to morph. They came in to fill gap that the agenncy could'nt fill.



perfect storm



mozilla did'nt give a crap if you could pay.   the salesmen didnt care. no one had skin in game.



thus:   no doc low doc ninja loans. countrywide et al sells em before ink dries.



wall street whores (us) package em (make our gizz) and sell to who the fukc knows.    (the CDO guys were very close to being "bad" people"



I conclude that we as humans are really not as smart as we think we are.



NO ONE saw this crap coming.



no one connected the dots.



Al and his 400 Phd's didnt see it.

barney didnt see it.

chris cox did'nt see it.    



The system and the complexity is bigger then all of us.



perfect storm



are there "bad people"? i dont think so.    







the biggest failure in my opinion?   govt. regulation.

it failed BIG time like always.    



if you had skin in the game no way you would have the country wides of the world.



i think as humans we have progressed to the extent that hank and ben saved the free world on sept 19, 2008.



getting that 750 bil the way they did. Reserve fund broke the buck. libor was 6   ted spread insane. 30 day govies NEGATIVE    system was melting. trust was GONE



we DID learn from mistakes of the 30's.     



all this regulation bs that obama nation is putting in wont do crap.



it looks like free markets blow about ever 100 years of so.   what gets us in 100 years wont be this.   it will be something else that govt misses.



again bad people?   nope



gabe and jimmy mean well.    



help people who need help get people in homes.

bankers bad? nay just people trying to better themselves.



a perfect storm



and (so far) the free world didnt melt

Dec 15, 2009 8:38 am

Wow! You re-posted it! Thanks!
Am I right, you just listen to Limbaugh and type what he says.

Your line, "NO ONE saw this crap coming." is absolutely false.


Dec 15, 2009 10:30 am
[email protected]:

Your line, "NO ONE saw this crap coming." is absolutely false.

 
I take pot-shots at you pretty liberally, [email protected] ... but you are right on this one. In fact, MSN Money had an extensive article on this in the summer or spring of 08, I believe, quoting an analyst from India.
 
I saved hard copy in my office somewhere. Funny thing, I initially saved it because I thought it was indictative of how wrong someone could be.
Dec 15, 2009 12:27 pm

I had the fortunate opportunity to see Robert Shiller speak back in the summer of '07. He pointed out that home prices were twice their average value when adjusted for inflation. He said a housing crash was inevitable, especially in FL, NV, and CA.



This graph sets the average (inflation adjusted) home price from 1890-2006 at 100. He showed how it hovered right around 100 until the recessions and depressions of the early 20th century. Post-war through the .com boom, it hovered around an optimistic 110 with "booms" in the 70's & 80's. Check out the boom in the late 00's (note: this is through 10/06...it got worse).

It was clear he found this data to be disturbing. He said we are absolutely heading for a major crash.

That's why he was selling real estate value derivatives. 

Dec 15, 2009 2:48 pm

People were talking about this in '05.  When Home Improvement shows were top rated cable TV, you should have known.

Dec 15, 2009 3:02 pm

Should'a could'a would'a there is always someone claiming the world is gonna end. We will never know if they're right til we get there. Society as a whole functions with ignorance and/or blindness.

Dec 15, 2009 3:50 pm

It probably already has and only mel knows it.

 
Did Meletoi also get banned? I miss the... 
 
RAINING ACATS SUCKUS!!!!!
Dec 15, 2009 4:27 pm
DeBolt:

It probably already has and only mel knows it.



Did Meletoi also get banned? I miss the...



RAINING ACATS SUCKUS!!!!!





I don't believe meletoi got banned. I think he was just there to expose the mockery of meletio.



Dec 15, 2009 11:23 pm
Meletoi was the best!
 
 
LET THEM ACATS RAIN SUCKAS
 
YOU CANT STOP ME
 
SPY 4 BY 3:18 A WEEK FROM TUESDAY
 
MELETOI 3.16 MEANS I JUST ACATED YOUR ASSSSSSSSSSS
 
All good things must come to an end though.
 
Dec 16, 2009 3:05 pm
[email protected]:

Wow! You re-posted it! Thanks! Am I right, you just listen to Limbaugh and type what he says. Your line, "NO ONE saw this crap coming." is absolutely false.





who?



some random hedge fund dude?

perma-bear losers?





Dec 16, 2009 3:07 pm
DeBolt:

Should'a could'a would'a there is always someone claiming the world is gonna end. We will never know if they're right til we get there. Society as a whole functions with ignorance and/or blindness.





bingo



amen brother



betting ball games is easy after game is over.



no one saw this coming. just random freak shows



hindsight so easy



if it was so obvious, did u guys all short subprime?

sell and short stocks?

Dec 16, 2009 3:11 pm
DeBolt:
Meletoi was the best!





LET THEM ACATS RAIN SUCKAS



YOU CANT STOP ME



SPY 4 BY 3:18 A WEEK FROM TUESDAY



MELETOI 3.16 MEANS I JUST ACATED YOUR ASSSSSSSSSSS



All good things must come to an end though.







mel>?

Dec 16, 2009 3:15 pm
iceco1d:
DeBolt:

It probably already has and only mel knows it.

 
Did Meletoi also get banned? I miss the... 
 
RAINING ACATS SUCKUS!!!!!



Thundercats - HO!

Only -15 days for the S&P to drop ~15 days and it will rain ACATS on all yew suckahs! 

 
You got it all wrong.  He/She wrote in ALL CAPS.  GEEZ!
Dec 16, 2009 3:18 pm
Shania Twain:
[email protected]:

Wow! You re-posted it! Thanks! Am I right, you just listen to Limbaugh and type what he says. Your line, "NO ONE saw this crap coming." is absolutely false.





who?



some random hedge fund dude?

perma-bear losers?



there were a few guys, rosenberg, zuckermen,dr death, sam dell (selling at top), jeremy granthem



most were bearish in 82, 87, 90 every mf year



Dec 16, 2009 3:20 pm

Interestingly enough.  I just found out that meletoi did in fact get his userid banned.  Not IP banned like meletio, but banned nonetheless.


Dec 16, 2009 3:24 pm

No, I think it means that the admin just banned anybody who had a name that resembled meletio's.

Dec 16, 2009 4:05 pm

How did you figure that one out?

Dec 16, 2009 6:08 pm

A MOMENT OF SILENCE FOR THE GREAT MELETOI, THE ACATS WILL ALWAYS BE YOURS....


Dec 16, 2009 9:39 pm

sup mel

so many great charts

1250ish

soon



cover that GD gold NOW

reverse that long usd    get short

sell those girley man TIPS



there is still time