Visa anyone?

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Mar 17, 2008 3:08 pm

Anyone brave enough to buy Visa on its open tomorrow?

Mar 17, 2008 3:09 pm
BondGuy:

Anyone brave enough to buy Visa on its open tomorrow?

 
Brave enough?? I am sure many people are lining up to buy this IPO.. It's been much anticipated!
Mar 17, 2008 3:22 pm

I'd be careful about the valuation you buy it at.  MCard took off, and I bet this one's gonna be even hotter.  I would wager on a little "mini-bubble" in the stock until people come to their senses.  Heck of a business model, though.  It's got a virtual duopoly in the processing arena, and it will only likely grow.  It has little risk in terms of bad debt or cash float, and reduced consumer spending cycles are largely offset by increases in usage percentage (versus cash & check methods).  These are both actually good stocks to own LONG term (it's basically a play on technology and overall GDP/CPI).

Mar 17, 2008 5:30 pm

Visa is priced tomorrow, does not open until Weds.  As for their business model, hard to like a billion $ loss last year on the balance sheet.   Although I have IOI on 6500 shares and if I don't get the IPO, clients want to buy on the open market on Wednesday.

Mar 18, 2008 6:28 pm

Got my large allocation today lol! Some is better than none I guess lol!

Mar 18, 2008 7:12 pm
nestegg:

Got my large allocation today lol! Some is better than none I guess lol!

 
History Lesson #1 For Newbies:
 
In the '90's, as a newbie during the internet hysteria, simply being able to get an allocation of an IPO, meant that it was a piece of cr*p.
Mar 18, 2008 8:09 pm

I recieved 23000 shares today, I shite you not. Must be a POS.

Mar 18, 2008 9:19 pm
doberman:
nestegg:

Got my large allocation today lol! Some is better than none I guess lol!

 
History Lesson #1 For Newbies:
 
In the '90's, as a newbie during the internet hysteria, simply being able to get an allocation of an IPO, meant that it was a piece of cr*p.


Umm I know I was there lol!

Mar 19, 2008 8:00 pm
badmove?:

I recieved 23000 shares today, I shite you not. Must be a POS.

 
23000 shares up 15 points - someone owes you some SERIOUS business soon!
Mar 20, 2008 8:54 am
NOFX:
badmove?:

I recieved 23000 shares today, I shite you not. Must be a POS.

 
23000 shares up 15 points - someone owes you some SERIOUS business soon!
 
Congratulations on the correct bet on VISA. Please understand, that's all it was. As such, noone owns anyone anything.
 
For the rookies who read this, understand that this is not a way to build a long term business. Those who go this route will be selling cars five years from now, not securities.
 
Harsh words? You betcha!  My points are: As a vet  my business can take a hit from a wrong guess on a flyer, regardless of whether that flyer is a new issue or just some hairbrained idea. Rookies are not in this position. Had market conditions remained what they were when I stated this post, VISA might have had some serious problems. After-all we were facing the collapse of the investment banking world as we knew it. And as good as VISA is, it's still vunerable. Thus the risk.
 
Secondly, as sexy as the new issue biz is, it's no way to build a business. Most of the people(please note the use of the word most before you send letters) interested in the new issue arena are short term oriented. They are "Players." If you believe this is the type of client you need to attract I know of an Acura Dealer looking for salespeople. Let me know I'll forward your resume. Why: With "Players" as clients you are only as good as your last trade. Some might give you another at bat or two before you're gone. This is no way to build a business. We want owners, not renters.
 
And then there is the compliance and legal aspect which can only be discribed as high risk.
 
 
 
To that point, most of the guys i know who operated their businesses in this fashion are now doing other things. A few adapted and are doing well. But i gotta tell ya, as tough as it was watching some of my friends go from making $300 to $400K a year to being asked to leave for lack of production or compliance issues stemming from complaints, it was much tougher for them.
 
 
And even us vets must exercise caution lest we damage our own good names. That's not to say helping clients who are so inclined by getting them into a good new issue is a crime. it's not. However, as we all know being able to cherry pick what new issues we want and then expecting to have access to the hot deals is not how the game is played. As I read about our friend who got 23000 shares I have to wonder how many cleints paid the price for those shares with the money losong crap that is the average new issue? At least, as it stands today, VISA could offest some of that pain.
 
You can blow off this freindly unsolicted advice, as i'm sure many of you will. However, know this, I wasn't always Bondguy. I've also been Optionsguy and Daytraderguy. I've done some really stupid things during my career. Playing in traffic with "Players' was one of the more idiotic episodes of my career. One, as I look back on it, I'm surprised I survived. Yet, I tell you that to tell you this: I did $14,000 gross yesterday without doing a single share of VISA. Nothing high risk, no worries, everybody can sleep at night. And the best part: I don't have to watch my computer screen every minute while making sure my blood pressure doesn't bust an artery. Not a bad gig if you can get it. And all of you rookies can get it.
 
Making a killing on VISA makes for a good story at the barbecue. Helping people execute a financial plan builds a career.
 
Lastly, VISA is an excellent company. It's not a high flyer from a fundemental point of view, but the uproar of it's offering has skewd it's real value and thus increased its risk. For those who got in the IPO yesterday was a good day. Those of you who bought on the secondary, well good luck with some of those calls. Live by the sword or die by it.
 
By the way the all the guys down at he Acura dealer are making between $110K and $160k.  It's not nearly what you can make here if you build it right, but it's a living. The future awaits!
 
 
 
Mar 20, 2008 1:25 pm

Bond guy...tru dat. However in my case we had indicated for over 200k shrs but I was still dumbfounded by our allocation. You are correct syndicate players are no way to build a business, the clients are professionals and will leave you in a heartbeat. The best biz is one in which you have a nice planning practice but still have the ability to branch out into other area's to "supplement" you gross. BTW NOFX I believe one guys account is up over 260k from yesterday, it would be nice if he paid me back w/some gross. Good bye (buy)?

Mar 20, 2008 2:26 pm
badmove?:

Bond guy...tru dat. However in my case we had indicated for over 200k shrs but I was still dumbfounded by our allocation. You are correct syndicate players are no way to build a business, the clients are professionals and will leave you in a heartbeat. The best biz is one in which you have a nice planning practice but still have the ability to branch out into other area's to "supplement" you gross. BTW NOFX I believe one guys account is up over 260k from yesterday, it would be nice if he paid me back w/some gross. Good bye (buy)?

 
I think that was my point - I was pretty sure that you weren't pushing VISA on little old ladies.  I assumed you were placing that much stock with pros who are in on every deal.  By that assumption , I am sure those clients made a killing and will be paying you back in future commissions. 
 
Bondguy - Thank you for your view from high atop the moral high ground...  Your extrapolation of a light hearted post was  ...
Mar 20, 2008 3:27 pm

Absolutely BondGuy, I learned early on to keep my best clients away from the hottest issues & my 'smartest' ideas! When I first got in the business in 1998 I told people that I always had one stock that I was highly confident would double in the next 12 - 18 months. In my first two years my picks were Safeskin(Stock went from $38 to $0.2 overnight because management stuffed inventory down it's customers throats & then ran out of capital during a soft spot - bought by Kimberly Clark), Lucent & Worldcom.

Mar 20, 2008 4:43 pm
Ashland:

In my first two years my picks were Safeskin......, Lucent & Worldcom.



Ouch, ouch, and double-ouch.

The lessons that stick are the ones that hurt the most.  Live and Learn.

Mar 20, 2008 4:55 pm

[quote=NOFX

 
I think that was my point - I was pretty sure that you weren't pushing VISA on little old ladies.  I assumed you were placing that much stock with pros who are in on every deal.  By that assumption , I am sure those clients made a killing and will be paying you back in future commissions. 
 
Bondguy - Thank you for your view from high atop the moral high ground...  Your extrapolation of a light hearted post was  ...[/quote]
 
Moral high ground? Absolutely not. My post was aimed strickly at rookies. And based on been there done that experience. I claim nothing beyond being victim of my own stupidity. Believe me, that's punishment enough.
 
 I stand by my nothing owed statement. It's not the way players think. Especially if they did pay the price of admission by lining up to buy all the crap. Not always the case.
Mar 20, 2008 7:34 pm

I didn't know we were posting in the rookie section.  Or are all posts supposed to be sanitized for the G rated audience ?  I'll bet you will find that there are many reps with 10+ years experience who have planning clients AND trading clients. 

 
I had  two more paragraphs written explaining exactky how I use syndicate  in my practice.  I just deleted it.  If you don't understand how to work syndicate into your practice without being irresponsible... Thank you, it leaves bigger allocatins for the PG-13 audience.
 
 
Mar 21, 2008 8:43 am
NOFX:

I didn't know we were posting in the rookie section.  Or are all posts supposed to be sanitized for the G rated audience ?  I'll bet you will find that there are many reps with 10+ years experience who have planning clients AND trading clients. 

 
I had  two more paragraphs written explaining exactky how I use syndicate  in my practice.  I just deleted it.  If you don't understand how to work syndicate into your practice without being irresponsible... Thank you, it leaves bigger allocatins for the PG-13 audience.
 
 
 
"Quick! Buy it now, before it goes lower!"  - a little trading mentality humor?
 
NOFX, you're all bent out of shape over nothing. Instead of making uninformed comments about me, someone you know nothing about, reread my post and come back to us with factual errors.
 
Now if you'd like, I can start in on you? We can start with your reading comprehension. Where did I say I didn't know how to work syndicate? Or, how to work it responsibly? Perhaps you took my self effacing comments about doing stupid things the wrong way? To be clear, i meant it was stupid for me to give up a  money making business process, that was selling tax free bonds, because i thought the grass was greener on the stock trading/options trading/hot syndicate side of the street.  And to be even more clear (oxymoron?) I was good at the tradin thing. Still am. But I hated it. My firm hated me for re-reinventing myself back to bonds. The production drop to $125K almost cost me my job. Not to mention that living on about one sixth of my previous income for the first year did wonders for my bank account. My previous tenure as a top quintile producer bought me some time and from there the rest is history. So when I say stupid, mean as in stupid business move on my part.
 
 
You keep coming back with things like I'm taking the "moral high ground" and   what I'm advising is"G" rated.  I have to ask, do you think the syndicate business is in someway dirty? Because you're bringing up something that wasn't said. And in doing so it leads me to believe that your own view of syndicate is less than pure. I have to say, that I find that you view your business as PG 13 and I what described as G interesting. Even if what I describe is G rated, is there something wrong with that?
 
As for posting how you run your syndicate business, there is no need to defend yourself. My post wasn't an attack on you or anyone else. It was simply the truth based on my experience and observation.