New Dorsey Wright ETF "PDP"

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Mar 10, 2007 2:40 am

While thumbing through the archives, I noticed that a few people mentioned using DWA's technical analysis service?



This ETF looks kind of interesting, based on an index of stocks with
high "relative strength" reconstituted quarterly. Conceptually this
would good in a trending market where there is defined market
leadership (i.e steady love) and do very badly in market where there was alot of rotation (i.e a change of love)



There is Valueline Timeliness select ETF which is based on something
similar (Top 50 VL#1 stocks on Technicals+Safety). I'm noticing alot of
new ETF's based on or informed by trading strategies
(PIV/PYH/XRO/DEF/PDP) which is an interesting development.



What I wonder is these strategies give you equity performance with a different bounce, or if this is merely high beta.

Mar 11, 2007 8:35 am

Does the etf explain its screening process in detail?  I appologize, I have not seen it.

Mar 12, 2007 3:50 pm
I cut this from a discussion about PDP,  I love the X's and O's.
 How are the investments selected?
We use Relative Strength as the only factor in the investment process. From our extensive research we know RS is a very robust and adaptable stock selection method. Stocks exhibiting superior Relative Strength characteristics are eligible for inclusion in the portfolio. The process of selecting the stocks for the portfolio is 100% systematic. We do not discuss what we think should be included or excluded from the portfolio. The systematic process determines the securities and weights, and we follow it without question.

How many securities will the portfolio hold?
There will be 100 securities in the index. From time to time, corporate actions may necessitate the index holding slightly more or less than 100 securities, but the number should always be close to 100.

Are the holdings published?
The holdings of all ETFs are published and part of the public domain. We will most likely make the complete list available in pdf format on the Dorsey, Wright website.

How are the securities weighted in the portfolio?
We use a modified equal weighting methodology. We assign more weight to securities with better relative strength characteristics. Essentially, stocks that have performed better in the past get a higher weighting in the portfolio.

How often is the portfolio changed?
We rebalance the portfolio quarterly. Every three months we revisit our relative strength rankings for the entire universe to determine what needs to be sold and what needs to be added to the portfolio. We also re-weight all of the securities at this time.

Why do you rebalance quarterly?
It is always difficult to determine how much turnover a process can reasonably bear. We know from our research that simply increasing the trading frequency does not necessarily lead to better returns. (This, by the way, is one of the most common misperceptions we hear from people calling our office.) Rebalancing quarterly is a nice compromise between overtrading (say rebalancing monthly) and undertrading (rebalancing annually). After the launch, we will no doubt receive spreadsheets from people detailing how we would be able to increase our performance by changing the trading frequency. We know quarterly rebalancing will not be optimal in every period. However, we do know from our testing that quarterly rebalancing works extremely well for this methodology, and that over time is the best solution for what we are trying to accomplish. This product is designed to perform well over the long-term and is not designed to react to every little wiggle that comes along.

What will the turnover of the portfolio be?
This is a high turnover strategy. From an investor’s standpoint, however, this will not make any difference. When there are changes to the portfolio the changes are made automatically and the investor is unaffected. There are also tax advantages to using a high turnover strategy in an ETF format as opposed to a mutual fund format, which should help mitigate some of the effects of the turnover.

What are the performance characteristics of the new ETF?
Relative Strength is a trend following methodology. As a result, when there are definable trends in place this portfolio should perform well. All trend following methodologies struggle when trends change. You can expect the DWA Technical Leaders Index to lag the broad market when there are leadership changes. From the historical testing we know the portfolio is capable of performing well in both broad market advances (2003) and more narrow moves (2005). Where we will struggle are markets like 2000 or 2006 when there is a major change in leadership. While underperformance is always unsettling, the portfolio is designed to be extremely adaptive. When trends change we will not be the first to change, but as they develop the process is designed to latch on and exploit the new leadership.

How correlated is the ETF with the S&P 500?
Because we invest in such a specialized area of the market there will be times when the performance of the ETF is substantially different from the broad market. There will be times when high RS securities are performing well while the broad market is down, and the reverse is true as well. Just as small-caps, large-caps, growth, and value portfolios have certain performance characteristics, so does a high RS portfolio.

How can I use this ETF in my business?
The DWA Technical Leaders Index provides a turnkey solution for exposure to a high relative strength stock portfolio. Small accounts that can’t buy individual securities can get immediate exposure to the strategy by utilizing this ETF. Many people will also use the ETF as part of an overall asset allocation plan. Mixing the ETF with bonds, for example, can still provide very good returns while reducing volatility substantially. You can also buy the Technical Leaders ETF and short a broad market index and profit from the outperformance of high RS securities versus the broad market over time. The new ETF is a tool and as people begin to use the product I’m sure we will hear about some very creative ways it is being used!

What about risk management?
It is important to remember this is an equity product, and there will be volatility. As of this writing, there will be options traded on the ETF. If options are your preferred method of risk management that will be available to you. ETFs are also easily bought and sold so you can raise cash if you wish. There are a number of alternatives available on this front. Always keep in mind that the DWA Technical Leaders ETF holds a specialized basket of stocks. When the defensive team moves on to the field that does not mean every stock in your portfolio is going to start taking on water. You will need to monitor what the leadership is doing and act accordingly.

Mar 12, 2007 3:51 pm

O yeah,    Where have I heard of PDP before?

Mar 12, 2007 4:05 pm
Bamzor:

O yeah,    Where have I heard of PDP before?



Mother Merrill...

Mar 12, 2007 8:34 pm
Bamzor:

O yeah,    Where have I heard of PDP before?





Was also the name of DEC mini-computer from the late 1970s/early 1980s