Buffet may have gotten lucky

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Feb 9, 2010 10:19 am

Now, I don't know where you stand on Buffet.  I'm not sure I agree with everything he says, but I'm pretty sure that Nassim Taleb saying he got lucky and that Soros has so much more statistical evidence that he is smarter is taking it a little far.

I've slogged through Taleb's books and I believe they are the most self-aggrandizing pieces of non-fiction I've ever read.  I can't for the life of me determine if Taleb is smart, or just full of himself.


Feb 9, 2010 11:15 am
Moraen:

Now, I don't know where you stand on Buffet.  I'm not sure I agree with everything he says, but I'm pretty sure that Nassim Taleb saying he got lucky and that Soros has so much more statistical evidence that he is smarter is taking it a little far.

I've slogged through Taleb's books and I believe they are the most self-aggrandizing pieces of non-fiction I've ever read.  I can't for the life of me determine if Taleb is smart, or just full of himself.


I agree, but I do think Buffet is overrated. He commands better deals because of the influence he wields(media, assets) but those ideas don't work for the average investor..
 
I also think once BRK gets added to the index, his grip on the stock and thus the returns will falter and end up being an index(like Growth Fund of AMerica is too mutual fund investors)
Feb 9, 2010 12:31 pm

I also agree Buffet is overrated. Many of his early deals (60's and 70's) were arm wrestle deals that probably wouldn't even be allowed today because of increased merger and acquistion competition.

Feb 9, 2010 12:37 pm

Agree that Buffet is overrated.  But he has made some good plays for sure.  I think Taleb just likes saying things to shock people.

Feb 9, 2010 12:38 pm

Soros is a knob.

Feb 9, 2010 12:43 pm
SometimesNowhere:

Soros is a knob.



Agree.  But he is smart.

Feb 9, 2010 12:52 pm
Moraen:
SometimesNowhere:

Soros is a knob.



Agree.  But he is smart.

 
I read one of his books recently, I wanted to punch myself in the face just for taking the time to indulge his ego masturbation.
Feb 9, 2010 1:08 pm

Goldman at $60 was a smart deal as well as GE at $6. Then again, he has FU money

Feb 9, 2010 1:53 pm

I think Buffett's long-term strategy is great for the company and for him.  Unfortunately, most average investors have a much, much shorter time-frame than he focuses on (forever).  He is much more similar to an indefinite endowment.  His problem the past 10-15 years is deploying enough capital to actually make a difference to the bottom line.  He needs to invest billions to make an impact on his financial results.  There simply aren't a lot of great investments available for billions.  As he has said numerous times, if he had a lot less money to invest, he could do much better.  For example, buying a fantastic small-cap company with a $50mm market cap ain't gonna do sh!t, even if the thing doubles every few years for the next decade.  And the GE and Goldman deals don't come along very often.

Feb 9, 2010 2:10 pm

Warren is a god - I like hearing a bank broker say he's overrated.

Feb 9, 2010 3:42 pm
Hotair just because I was in your region, had higher production (even though we went through training at the same time) and left while you stayed behind on GOALS doesn't mean you have to come after me every time I post. You know exactly where you can find me. The branch is open from 9-7 M-F. I'll give you a sucker before I whip your ass.
 
 
Feb 9, 2010 3:48 pm
Ron 14:
Hotair just because I was in your region, had higher production (even though we went through training at the same time) and left while you stayed behind on GOALS doesn't mean you have to come after me every time I post. You know exactly where you can find me. The branch is open from 9-7 M-F. I'll give you a sucker before I whip your ass.
 
 
 
Feb 9, 2010 3:49 pm
Ron 14:
Hotair just because I was in your region, had higher production (even though we went through training at the same time) and left while you stayed behind on GOALS doesn't mean you have to come after me every time I post. You know exactly where you can find me. The branch is open from 9-7 M-F. I'll give you a sucker before I whip your ass.







LMAO

Feb 9, 2010 9:09 pm
Ron 14:
Hotair just because I was in your region, had higher production (even though we went through training at the same time) and left while you stayed behind on GOALS doesn't mean you have to come after me every time I post. You know exactly where you can find me. The branch is open from 9-7 M-F. I'll give you a sucker before I whip your ass.
 
 



That is some funny sh1t!