Delinquencies will rise, but not right away. Special servicers and master servicers will be busy in the coming months.
Most property sectors either posted delinquency declines or single-digit upticks. That might change in the coming month.
Several factors that helped to lift CMBS issuance volume in 2019 are still in play for 2020.
CMBS delinquencies reached the lowest level since before the financial crisis in December. Expect that trend to hold.
Trepp, Fitch Ratings measured declines in CMBS delinquency rates in the past month.
A former trader alleges the bank aggressively marketed a deal for bonds backed by hotels in a way that “could amount to securities fraud.”
The 30+ days delinquency rate went down by 3 basis points, according to Trepp, and 4 basis points, according to Fitch Ratings.
This year might see slightly lower CMBS issuance than in 2018, but insiders say the market is “pleasantly drama free.”
The delinquency rate in the sector continues to decline.