Where will be at end of next week?

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Mar 4, 2009 3:00 pm

7500 ?

Mar 4, 2009 3:20 pm

I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...

Mar 4, 2009 3:43 pm

My client, who has a remarkable history for being right about the markets, told me today that he expects to see the Dow at 4800 before this is all over.

 
 
Mar 4, 2009 3:53 pm

[quote=now_indy]I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I thought your crystal ball was broken. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...Oh, that makes it all better.  Also explains your other posts.  Don't mistake your missteps with the way I do business. [QUOTE]

 
 
Mar 4, 2009 4:09 pm
now_indy:

I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...

 
Great, now you've jinxed it.  Hasn't anyone told you that when you call the bottom there's some special force that resets it again.  Ask Kramer.  He knows all about it. 
Mar 4, 2009 4:24 pm
Sam Houston:

[quote=now_indy]I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I thought your crystal ball was broken. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...Oh, that makes it all better.  Also explains your other posts.  Don't mistake your missteps with the way I do business. [QUOTE]

 
 
 
Sam, my crystal ball is broken.  That was not a statement of fact, that was a GUESS by me.
 
It's just that I'm willing to call it what it is, a guess. You make guesses, and attribute it to some ability to know when to get in and out of the markets.
 
If I go with a client to a casino, and he asks me if he should put his IRA into a slot machine, and I say "no," but he does it anyway, and hits a massive jackpot, was I wrong?  No, I wasn't wrong, he just guessed right.  That is not repeatable, in the same way that your "get out when the market is going down, get back in when it goes up" strategy is not repeatable.
Mar 4, 2009 4:28 pm

You keep telling yourself that I guess or predict or time or whatever you need to sleep at night.

Mar 4, 2009 8:56 pm

s and p earnings were 35 bucks in 1996.

peak earnings were about 95 in 2007

take us to 50?40?35?

think about it.



that will discount

population growth

productivity growth

tech growth and

the ENTIRE MF global economy since 96



be very very greedy when everyone is fearful



RISK is so on sale.

Mar 5, 2009 8:40 am

I predict that by the end of next week we will be at March 13, and further, I will be at the GatorNationals.

Mar 5, 2009 8:54 am

dow somewhere between 5900-8900.... give or take a couple of points.

Mar 5, 2009 10:34 am

0

Mar 5, 2009 11:02 am

todays close will be dramatic

Mar 5, 2009 11:12 am

selling pressure more and more relentlus. People are concerned about survival

Mar 5, 2009 11:20 am

Had two clients liquidate this week. I've talked them out of it in the past, but now they're just transferring out.

Mar 5, 2009 12:16 pm
now_indy:

I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I'm not telling my clients that, but that's my prediction. Knowing my past history, that's probably way off...

 
I could be wrong...
Mar 5, 2009 12:28 pm

haha, I'll say, I was thinking about your original post when I checked the market last.

Mar 5, 2009 4:06 pm
josephjones107:

todays close will be dramatic







down over 4%. (down 280 used to be down 560 in 07)



tomorrow jobs report will be worst than expected (over 8% unemployment)

market will be relieved to get that report out of the way

Mar 5, 2009 4:33 pm

How'd the market finished today?  I was too busy curled up in a fetal position under my desk to look up and see!

Mar 5, 2009 5:26 pm

The 8 talking heads on MSNBC all gave differing opinions. So I did a weighted average analysis on the square root of the sum of their predictions, multiplied by the number of months we've been in recession, divided by the number of jobs lost in the past six months, less the number of jobs expected to be lost next month, multiplied by the VIX then divided by pi since I needed some sort of mathematical greek number in here so I could justify the result to my clients, and came up with the answer. I'm waiting for the network to invite me on so I can announce it to the world.

Mar 5, 2009 5:29 pm

MSNBC is has political shows, do you mean CNBC?