Too Much Cash?
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[quote=A b]
If you want to share. 1 do you do this for all your clients? 2 how many differnet names? 3 you just keep rolling? 4 does the math work for alot of stocks? 5 this is your presentation to people? 6 what about getting premature assignment on puts? 7 or if they call in short loan? [/quote] 1 Pretty much. I'll have as many as I can find. I had a program developed buy some guys in india to search just for the setups I like. 2 I can find around 20 a week usually but quite a few I cant get the shares for the short. I don't use ADR's as they are the ones that can bite you the only real way you can get nailed. I tell you what it is if Ron the floor trader is stumped. 3 Yep 4 See answer 2 5 One of the better ones. 6 WOW got your thinking cap on don't you .... As soon as they are assigned the trade is done. I'll trade them deep in the money to have a better chance of assignment. Early assignment is desired 7 No biggy we just cover the shares with cash in the account or use a little margin until the trade is over usually just a month or two. The shares received on assignment auto cover the short. Not bad eyy?[quote=Moraen] [quote=Ron 14] Oh so you mean a natural market that you have built up overtime who you sell your non-repeatable strategies to.
You should be trading these stocks for yourself also. You would make more money and keep it all. The reason you don't is because you rather charge someone to use their money to make your bets.
Create a "new" solution to financial problems ? Give me a f**king break. [/quote]
Deleted - it was a low blow.
Sorry that I have a natural market - that I did something worthwhile before coming to this business.
Talk to people about what they want and provide it. Just because you can't provide it at a bank, don't think you know anything about who I am or what I do. Or what I can do.
My strategies are incredibly repeatable. Once again, I'm not making people ridiculous returns, but I'm not losing them money either.
Somebody mentioned a black swan. MPT is the ultimate black swan. It's failed 12 times. That's way to much to be a simple outlier.
Go back to your scared bank and see how many referrals you can get from your tellers.
[/quote] I saw the low blow. Thats fine. I have been more honest about my story than anyone on this site. I even posted my Jones numbers. I had a natural market for being on the trading floor for 9 years. You know how many of those connections I used to build my clients base? 0. I wanted to start from zero, zip. I went to Jones and then saw the bank as a better opportunity to build a business than Jones for 5% less cut. Talk to people about what they want and provide it ? That is what Madoff did.
[quote=Ron 14] [quote=Moraen] [quote=Ron 14] Oh so you mean a natural market that you have built up overtime who you sell your non-repeatable strategies to.
You should be trading these stocks for yourself also. You would make more money and keep it all. The reason you don’t is because you rather charge someone to use their money to make your bets.
Create a “new” solution to financial problems ? Give me a f**king break. [/quote] Deleted - it was a low blow.
Sorry that I have a natural market - that I did something worthwhile before coming to this business. Talk to people about what they want and provide it. Just because you can’t provide it at a bank, don’t think you know anything about who I am or what I do. Or what I can do. My strategies are incredibly repeatable. Once again, I’m not making people ridiculous returns, but I’m not losing them money either. Somebody mentioned a black swan. MPT is the ultimate black swan. It’s failed 12 times. That’s way to much to be a simple outlier. Go back to your scared bank and see how many referrals you can get from your tellers. [/quote]
I saw the low blow. Thats fine. I have been more honest about my story than anyone on this site. I even posted my Jones numbers. I had a natural market for being on the trading floor for 9 years. You know how many of those connections I used to build my clients base? 0. I wanted to start from zero, zip. I went to Jones and then saw the bank as a better opportunity to build a business than Jones for 5% less cut. Talk to people about what they want and provide it ? That is what Madoff did. [/quote]
Riiiight. Is that all you can do is invoke Madoff? My clients get two statements, one from me and one from the custodian. They don’t have to rely on me.
You have no response to the statistical failure of MPT. I can’t wait until Ice gets back - his arguments are intelligent and require thinking to respond.
I want to work with people I like. I like my market. I like my clients. And I can help them. I’ve been honest about my strategy. It’s not market timing.
I am sure the bank is appreciative that you are helping them build their business. I’m sorry, I’d rather be an owner than an employee. To each his own.
[quote=Moraen] [quote=Ron 14] [quote=Moraen] [quote=Ron 14] Oh so you mean a natural market that you have built up overtime who you sell your non-repeatable strategies to.
You should be trading these stocks for yourself also. You would make more money and keep it all. The reason you don’t is because you rather charge someone to use their money to make your bets.
Create a “new” solution to financial problems ? Give me a f**king break. [/quote] Deleted - it was a low blow.
Sorry that I have a natural market - that I did something worthwhile before coming to this business. Talk to people about what they want and provide it. Just because you can’t provide it at a bank, don’t think you know anything about who I am or what I do. Or what I can do. My strategies are incredibly repeatable. Once again, I’m not making people ridiculous returns, but I’m not losing them money either. Somebody mentioned a black swan. MPT is the ultimate black swan. It’s failed 12 times. That’s way to much to be a simple outlier. Go back to your scared bank and see how many referrals you can get from your tellers. [/quote]
I saw the low blow. Thats fine. I have been more honest about my story than anyone on this site. I even posted my Jones numbers. I had a natural market for being on the trading floor for 9 years. You know how many of those connections I used to build my clients base? 0. I wanted to start from zero, zip. I went to Jones and then saw the bank as a better opportunity to build a business than Jones for 5% less cut. Talk to people about what they want and provide it ? That is what Madoff did. [/quote]
Riiiight. Is that all you can do is invoke Madoff? My clients get two statements, one from me and one from the custodian. They don’t have to rely on me.
You have no response to the statistical failure of MPT. I can’t wait until Ice gets back - his arguments are intelligent and require thinking to respond.
I want to work with people I like. I like my market. I like my clients. And I can help them. I’ve been honest about my strategy. It’s not market timing.
I am sure the bank is appreciative that you are helping them build their business. I’m sorry, I’d rather be an owner than an employee. To each his own.[/quote]
Btw - I like yours and Gaddock’s tag lines. Hilarious!
Well if you are giving people what they want are you giving them guarantees ? That is why I used Madoff reference, he was making guarantees on returns. Im not saying what you do is shady. I am saying that investor psychology is such that what they want today will be different tomorrow.
Were you able to take your Jones clients with you ? Im sure you did and so will I.BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ronny Ron Ronny Bravo That's it freaking special dividend. Unanticipated dividend for Ron, I'll remove the tag line you were manipulated into making.Unanticipated dividend
I guarantee nothing. Not even annuities or government bonds. I never guarantee anything. I agree about investor psychology. If it ever gets to the point where they don’t like my methods (which will expand as I hire more people - talked to a guy today with an interesting ETF strategy), they are free to leave. Everything we do is spelled out in the IPS and contract.
It’s a little easier to leave Jones. At Jones, you can not EVER sell Jones. At a bank (and you can correct me if I’m wrong) everybody there has their hands on your clients. At least talking to the bank brokers I know. There are the planners and the trust guys. Just another way for them to get their hooks in your clients. I wish you the best if you decide to leave ever, and would even be willing to share my exit plan (how exactly I did it, how I followed the rules I was supposed to, but still managed to get things set up) - with anybody. I think it becomes harder the longer you stay though.
I can take or leave MPT. MPT makes reference to risk free assets. There is no such thing. Ask my Great Uncle who has been rolling CD's since the early 80's if those are risk free. Now the poor guy has to sell his house to pay bills because inflation crushed him. Equities will return a greater real return over time than anything else and you will have to take on risk to get that.
BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ronny Ron Ronny Bravo That's it freaking special dividend.[/quote] 2004 I got kicked in groin when I was trading QQQ when Microsoft announced special dividend. Still Hurts !![quote=Ron 14]Unanticipated dividend
Totally agree that the bank has their hands all over your clients. That is why I don't use any products or funds connected directly to the bank. I figure if I ever bolt I will say to the clients that the bank wants me to put my clients in bank products and I don't think that is in your best interest. (They dont demand it now, but it is hinted)I guarantee nothing. Not even annuities or government bonds. I never guarantee anything. I agree about investor psychology. If it ever gets to the point where they don’t like my methods (which will expand as I hire more people - talked to a guy today with an interesting ETF strategy), they are free to leave. Everything we do is spelled out in the IPS and contract.
It’s a little easier to leave Jones. At Jones, you can not EVER sell Jones. At a bank (and you can correct me if I’m wrong) everybody there has their hands on your clients. At least talking to the bank brokers I know. There are the planners and the trust guys. Just another way for them to get their hooks in your clients. I wish you the best if you decide to leave ever, and would even be willing to share my exit plan (how exactly I did it, how I followed the rules I was supposed to, but still managed to get things set up) - with anybody. I think it becomes harder the longer you stay though.
Unanticipated dividend for Ron, I’ll remove the tag line you were manipulated into making.
[quote=Moraen]I guarantee nothing. Not even annuities or government bonds. I never guarantee anything. I agree about investor psychology. If it ever gets to the point where they don’t like my methods (which will expand as I hire more people - talked to a guy today with an interesting ETF strategy), they are free to leave. Everything we do is spelled out in the IPS and contract. It’s a little easier to leave Jones. At Jones, you can not EVER sell Jones. At a bank (and you can correct me if I’m wrong) everybody there has their hands on your clients. At least talking to the bank brokers I know. There are the planners and the trust guys. Just another way for them to get their hooks in your clients. I wish you the best if you decide to leave ever, and would even be willing to share my exit plan (how exactly I did it, how I followed the rules I was supposed to, but still managed to get things set up) - with anybody. I think it becomes harder the longer you stay though.
Totally agree that the bank has their hands all over your clients. That is why I don’t use any products or funds connected directly to the bank. I figure if I ever bolt I will say to the clients that the bank wants me to put my clients in bank products and I don’t think that is in your best interest. (They dont demand it now, but it is hinted)[/quote]
Would be a good reason to leave too.
Seeing that a majority of investors underperform their own investments (DALBAR Study of investor behavior) I would say if you can keep them from making mistakes and that is all you do you are a great advisor. [/quote] This does not make you a great advisor, just as scoring a 95% on the 7 doesn't make you a great advisor. This is why you will always want to work with the "average" investor, simply because this is the only level of expertise you have been able to master.[quote=Squash1]“AA does a tremendous job protecting in just about any market”… WHAT?
That goes along with “getting a little bit pregnant” and “I am always right sometimes”
I agree w/B24 that there are indicators that saw the decline coming(simple ones too, like SMA)
I also agree w/ Morean… if you are just keeping them from making mistakes you aren’t an advisor.. You are a the equivalent of the Vanguard help desk(not bad people, but not advisors).
Incredible, for retirees that you help into the crash, you have to be narrow minded because 40% of their equity got wiped out last year, and now where is the income going to come from.
AB
Now that we've established the only risk to this position is a surprise dividend read between the lines. Who would ever imagine somebody like ahhh say AIG for example would pay a special dividend at this time? Can you imagine the moral outrage?[quote=Ron 14]
I can take or leave MPT. MPT makes reference to risk free assets. There is no such thing. Ask my Great Uncle who has been rolling CD's since the early 80's if those are risk free. Now the poor guy has to sell his house to pay bills because inflation crushed him. Equities will return a greater real return over time than anything else and you will have to take on risk to get that.
[/quote] You're proof being?????[quote=iceco1d]
[quote=B24][quote=Incredible Hulk] [quote=B24]
I think you’re missing my point. Secular markets are part of the investing cycle. I am not talking about every cyclical bear and bull. I am saying that MPT/AA works within a secular bull market. Since the last secular bull was 18 years long, people were duped into thinking that that’s how things always are. What about the 20’s? What about the 40’s? What about the 70’s? What about the 00’s? Four out of the last 10 decades have been wipeouts. I know Jones likes to talk about buy-and-hold like it’s the holy grail, but the truth is, there are a lot of advisor-led investors that have had their portfolios wiped out (twice) in the past 10 years. But hanging your hat on AA and MPT because it works in some markets is short-sighted. You can recover from a 4-month cyclical bear market, it’s tough to recover from a 10-15 year secular bear market.[/quote]Glad this thread didn’t die (yes, I’m still away). I haven’t caught up yet, but I’ve seen this statement (or some variant of it) posted several times now. My new question is this…In a “SECULAR BEAR MARKET,” do stocks discontinue the concept of paying dividends? Do bonds take a hiatus from coupon payments? Does cash stop paying interest?Going to go read the next 6 pages now, but if someone could enlighten me on this, I’d really appreciate it. Thanks in advance![/quote]
I get your point, but my guess would be that some companies may stop paying dividends and some bonds may stop paying coupons (Ah ha! The argument for diversification).
Ice - you’re in for a long read!
[quote=iceco1d] Haha, just finished. I was in for a long read. I’m glad the thread ended on a less “angry” note…then again, it isn’t over yet I suppose!FWIW, I’d rather chat EMH than MPT.I think some of these POVs vary depending on what your definition of “buy and hold” is, and to what extent you considering MPT (conceptually, or literally). Does time-frame rebalancing count as B&H? How about tolerance-based rebalancing?What if you are selling using a buy-write strategy on your equity piece, does that still count as b&h (as long as you are doing the same thing, over and over, and not using any research to base your trades…like selling @ the money calls repeatedly on the same security(ies)).If you are talking retired people taking income from their portfolios, is it still considered b&h if you are “tactically” placing your withdrawals? Comments welcomed. Going to go catch up on some other threads now.
[/quote]
The real problem with MPT is that it is based in statistics. Conceptually, it’s a great idea. The only problem is, things change. We have gone through way too many changes in the past 100 or so years to think that something will always work one way. Economics is the only social science where we assume people are rational. A big mistake, IMHO. It is the reason we have Marxist theories that we battle to this day. I think we must constantly evolve the way we do business, or we’ll stagnate and eventually screw up.
As for your questions - I have to wonder that myself. Time-frame rebalancing seems to me to be both an offensive and defensive strategy (probably why people like it so much). Tolerance-based rebalancing seems a little strange simply because people’s risk tolerance changes as often as the market does. And since you are selling every time you rebalance, it might not be literally buy and hold. But I think it falls in the same framework as buy and hold.
Retired people - I don’t think you can call people taking withdrawals buy and hold investors. They are in a different phase of their life. They are in the only phase where they should be taking money out.
All very good questions though.
[quote=Gaddock]AB
Now that we've established the only risk to this position is a surprise dividend read between the lines. Who would ever imagine somebody like ahhh say AIG for example would pay a special dividend at this time? Can you imagine the moral outrage? [/quote] surprise div. worry is retarded. if u can net 4% with comm and snake pit option spreads etc its neat. Like every thing else in our biz, you got to get people to do it. prospects would have to be real players to grasp it. so many moving parts. seems like it would take a hell of a lot of work to build up a good biz with it BUT sounds like u have a passion for it. Its certainly unique