New Suitors for GS and MS?

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Sep 17, 2008 12:49 pm

Wells Fargo?

 
State Street?
 
USB?
 
BERK?
 
I wonder if Warren Buffet is eyeing any of the distressed firms.  He must be licking his chops right now.  This is what he waits for.
Sep 17, 2008 12:56 pm

This is just crazy. 

 
Can you imagine if someone would have said, "Within the next 10 months, by October, Bear Stearns would be gone, Lehman Brothers would be bankrupt, AIG would be bailed out by the government, Merrill Lynch would be bought out by Bank of America, and Fannie and Freddie would be taken over by the government"?
 
You would have had anyone who said this committed.  If GS and MS go, which is possible, it would be absolutely unbelievable.
Sep 17, 2008 1:06 pm

It seems to me that GS and MS will almost be forced into merginf purley for competitive reasons.  Merrill, Wachovia, SB, they will all have much higher asset bases and much lower capital hurdles going forward.  GS and MS will not be able to compete with that.

 
Remember when a bank was a place to put deposits and write checks, and you bought stocks from a brokerage firm and insurance from an insurance company?  Now, my god, you can get investments, insurance, checking accounts, deposits, CD's, credit cards, mortgages, I-banking, mutual fund management, investment research, you name it, from a bank (and in some cases now the U.S. governement ). 
 
It's funny, but the rules actually HAVE changed.  We have learned that there is much out there in the investment world that we no longer understand, nor can we comunicate accurately to clients (are you kidding, this is a LEHMAN bond!  They've been around forever.  They're as safe as safe can be!  C'Mon, AIG insurance is huge!  Your policy is safe with them!)
 
Despite what ANYONE says, if the "best and brightest" on Wall Street could get us into the mess, it is really tough for any of us to have predicted what has happened.
Sep 17, 2008 1:17 pm

As you said, it also imposes a challenge to our credibility as advisors. This will change how we do business moving forward as clients will always be dangling all of this over our heads.

Sep 17, 2008 1:29 pm

dont forget citigroup. They have one foot out of the door also. As for  a morgan /goldman merger, it wouldnt work.  If anyone comes in to make a deal it would be an overseas bank. There isnt anyone left with the capital to pull off a buyout of the magnitude to take over MS or GS unless it is a private equity firm which i doubt would happen. Just my 2 cents worth. 

Sep 17, 2008 4:09 pm
B24:
Remember when a bank was a place to put deposits and write checks, and you bought stocks from a brokerage firm and insurance from an insurance company? 
 
Yes, it was 1998.  Before the repeal of the Glass Steagall act.  Sandy Weill of Travellers/SmithBarney got the ball rolling (lobbied intensively), Alan Greenspan thought it sounded like a wonderful idea, Rob Rubin (Scty of Treasury) agreed, a republican congress wrote a "better" new law, and a democratic president signed off on it.  Then Rubin ran off to take on a much better salaried position at the newly named "CitiGroup".
 
...And now here we are 10 years later.  Apparently deregulation doesn't always work out.
 
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/071603.asp
 
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/weill/demise.html
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/would-glass-steagall-save-day-credit/story.aspx?guid=%7B3AA33D85-AD38-41B4-B300-033235B5734A%7D
 
 http://thestrangedeathofliberalamerica.com/bill-clinton-glass-steagall-and-the-current-financial-and-mortgage-crisis-part-two-of-an-indepth-investigative-report.html
Sep 17, 2008 4:48 pm

BT-

 
No question about it. Glass Steagall act enable banks and insurance companies to act as recklessley as brokerage firms.
 
I say shame on all of them. I can't believe I am saying this, separate them as quickly as possible.
Sep 17, 2008 5:02 pm

I talked with a buddy at Morgan today and he was bitchin about all teh negative press his company was getting.  When we discussed possible mergers..he said..well at least I'll get a big retention bonus...

Sep 17, 2008 7:28 pm

Wachovia is talking to Morgan about a merger/buyout...here we go again.

You know I thought Danny Ludeman (President of Wachovia Securities) was nuts..he has been repeating over and over like a broken record for the last year how there will be no independent broker dealers and Investment Banks Left in the next few years...Wachovia's merger w/ AGE was the start, and there would be Wachovia and 1-2 big NY Bank/Brokerages...looks like we may be there in a metter of days not years...wow

Sep 17, 2008 7:59 pm

As a former AGE guy I have to wonder just what would have happened if Tad Edwards had won the internal battle for the firm I loved and Bagby went away.....The board who approved Mr. Bagby, at the very least, are throwing up blood right now.

 
If the firm could have stayed independent for just 6 more months, they would have recruited at least 1000 brokers from the other firms.   I heard Danny say that at a road show and I had no idea of the lunacy that would follow.  But not even Danny Boy could know just what kind of a mess some of the smartest people in the world have gotten us into.  Just  because he was right, does not make him smart.
I knew AG Edwards, AG Edwards took care of my clients and myself-Wachovia you are no AG Edwards.
Sep 17, 2008 8:08 pm

Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!!!!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here's to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do! 

Sep 17, 2008 8:26 pm

by the way, who exactly would be buying who Morgan or Wachovia?

 
They both are in trouble, so who would own who?  I have googled but can not find out who is buying who??
Sep 17, 2008 8:37 pm
rocky:

by the way, who exactly would be buying who Morgan or Wachovia?

 
They both are in trouble, so who would own who?  I have googled but can not find out who is buying who??



Well now it looks like a Chinese Bank will be buying Morgan...but the call was made by WB to MS to see about buying MS.

Sep 17, 2008 8:39 pm
YHWY:

Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!!!!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here's to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do! 


And you think LPL will be independant forever? Not likely.

Sep 17, 2008 8:40 pm

MS-  In talks with WB and a Chinese Bank..in case... the equity keeps tanking.

CNBC saying tonight that John Mack is kicking and screaming to everyone who will listen about the naked short selling driving the stock down. 

I thought that OSTK was nuts when he was complaining about what it was doing to his stock.  THURS will be interesting. 

Lets hope that MS & GS (and C Smith Barney) can weather this well.

Sep 17, 2008 9:04 pm

Rugby

Don't forget about UBS.  Interesting to see what happens with them.
Sep 17, 2008 10:44 pm
nestegg:
YHWY:

Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!!!!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here's to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do! 


And you think LPL will be independant forever? Not likely.



Really?

Perhaps not forever.

But how about you show us some of the headlines about how LPL has been forced to raise capital or put itself up for sale because of losses on poor investment decisions?

What?  Can't find them?   hmmmmmm

Sep 17, 2008 10:46 pm
nestegg:
YHWY:

Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!!!!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here's to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do! 


And you think LPL will be independant forever? Not likely.

 
Thats strange, isnt the market cap for MS larger than Wachovia?
Am I incorrect on that or does that not make a difference in a deal like this?
Sep 17, 2008 10:50 pm
rocky:
nestegg:
YHWY:

Great to see all the regular dozen or so wirehouse guys still here after all this time and water under the bridge (or over-topping, soon to be breached levee, as the case may be)! Still posting a dozen times a day while producing $800k/yr. Impressive! Sorry to hear that literally all your firms will be either bankrupt or absorbed by banks before this autumn is out. God, I love LPL!!!!!!! Making money hand over fist by harvesting your former clients. Here's to all you big talking wirehouse pikers out there! I love you, I really, really do! 


And you think LPL will be independant forever? Not likely.

 
Thats strange, isnt the market cap for MS larger than Wachovia?
Am I incorrect on that or does that not make a difference in a deal like this?


Just saying anyone that thinks anything is forever or is a certainty in this day and age is sadly mistaken....there were alot of smug MER reps just a week ago.
I didnt say that was the case...but I would expect consolidation among the Indy's as well...I doubt they will need to raise capital...they ahve low overhead, you guys pay all the expenses lol.
Honestly I don't know alot about LPL other than  the fact that I did bring in 4 accts from LPL in the last month...about 5mm in assets not too shabby :)

Sep 18, 2008 9:42 am

Liar