Skip navigation

GMO's quarterly letter

or Register to post new content in the forum

150 RepliesJump to last post

 

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Feb 8, 2010 6:38 pm
Moraen:

actually shoe, you did say “5% short gold”.

You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.

They are not the same.

Meletio is a complete toolbag.

Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.

  I stand corrected. However, that short is up 5%. I put it on in Mid-Nov. I added to it, but I was on a vaca. from this site, so I have no proof. Believe me or not??? Up to you.
Feb 8, 2010 6:44 pm

go back on vacation.

Feb 8, 2010 6:45 pm

[quote=Moraen] actually shoe, you did say “5% short gold”.You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.

[/quote]



acerbic.



damn good word.



i goog’ed it









Feb 8, 2010 6:46 pm
Shania Twain:

[quote=Moraen] actually shoe, you did say “5% short gold”.You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.
[/quote]

acerbic.

damn good word.

i goog’ed it




  As did I.
Feb 9, 2010 3:56 am

ok…shine.



Today was some really crappy action.

Mutual fund Monday also.



Bulls need to make a stand here.



pivot   1070ish area



do not want to violate Friday’s low.

today was really disappointing



just like early July (July 7th wash out)

bulls will make a stand here.



judgement time





















   







Feb 9, 2010 4:10 am

Bulls will not stand up until we pass 1035 but before 1017. People are still scared. The buy has to be great to talk them out of the bond funds and into equities. Conversations like this will need to occur…

Hey Doug... Doug Doug Goose.... How's it going? Oh really..., yeah we are all hurting, well you know down was the new up haha. Anyway, you wanna know the reason I called you Dan? Well I wanted to let you know that the markets are really pulling back right now and this may be the last chance you have to get in below 10,000. I would say once the DOW cracks 10 again it will not look back. Well anyway Dean I won't take up too much time, I just wanted to let you know about the great opportunities in the Small Blend Value Caps for Intermediate Corps right now and you should really get 50,000 back to work!!! How does an investment like this sound to you Dave?

p.s. I am a Bull as well Shania and that pic is my desktop background. Can't wait until the market opens. I love down days.

Feb 9, 2010 4:25 am

Oh shoot...  My bad Dale I had your number beside the wrong name on my note pad of people to call today. Well somebody is gonna jump at this opportunity so if you change your mind Dwain just give me a shout back buddy.

Feb 9, 2010 3:03 pm
Shania Twain:

ok…shine.

Today was some really crappy action.
Mutual fund Monday also.

Bulls need to make a stand here.

pivot   1070ish area

do not want to violate Friday’s low.
today was really disappointing

just like early July (July 7th wash out)
bulls will make a stand here.

judgement time










   



  This is quite different than July. Volume is absolutely screaming on the downside. A gap up in the morning does not help your cause.  It's meant to make you feel good and provide others with a higher selling price.  19 out of the last 22 Mondays have been up, so yesterday should not have been expected, that's why everyone covered shorts on Friday. If this thing can bust through 1103 on good volume the bulls will be back. Until then, this is all road noise. There is a 160% premium on 700 November puts and the market is starting to show it's hand. I anticipate more fall to come and a rally back to around 1100 before we head to the lows. I hope I am wrong.
Feb 9, 2010 3:04 pm
iceco1d:

D…are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  

  I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious
Feb 9, 2010 6:19 pm

This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…

Feb 9, 2010 6:57 pm
NYCTrader:

This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…

  I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.
Feb 9, 2010 7:16 pm
Indyone:

[quote=NYCTrader]This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…

  I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.[/quote]

I'm not calling you dumb.  I'm not calling bulls dumb.  I'm calling people who have knee-jerk reaction to news without thinking through the ramifications dumb (look at some of the articles coming out of the media about this issue).  I don't presume to know more than anyone else.  I have no way of predicting the future.  I have no idea what the markets will to do from one day to the next.  All I have is my analysis and my judgment.  

Saying bears state opinions as fact is like saying bulls state opinions as fact.  It's not really a valid argument.  Everyone has an opinion on this market.  Some are more rigorous than others.  I think you fall into a trap when you become overly dogmatic.  I was bullish from Dec '08 to Nov-'09.  I am now bearish.  I will likely be bullish again after the market hits reasonable levels.  Not saying stocks don't have room to run or won't run, but I'm not going to put capital to work in equities while we're in an environment like this one.

Feb 10, 2010 12:06 am
howboutshoeshine:

[quote=iceco1d]D…are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  

  I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious[/quote]   Mostly it came from these funny ass Scottrade commercials...   Anybody know a guy like this?   Scottrade 1   Scottrade 2   Scottrade 3   Scottrade 4
Feb 10, 2010 1:26 am
DeBolt:

[quote=howboutshoeshine][quote=iceco1d]D…are you drinking?  You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.  

  I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious[/quote]   Mostly it came from these funny ass Scottrade commercials...   Anybody know a guy like this?   Scottrade 1   Scottrade 2   Scottrade 3   Scottrade 4[/quote]   Funny comercials. Funnier posts!!
Feb 10, 2010 1:34 am
Indyone:

[quote=NYCTrader]This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen.  Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS.  Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…

  I think the other PIGS are already in the equation.  What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else.  Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact.  I'm long...at least for the first half of the year.  Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run.  When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.[/quote]   I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense. -You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You??? Fundamental -higher taxes for rich -printing press for fed govt. -NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?) -less income for average person -high unemployment ( and getting worse ) -Private sector professionals going govt.?? -high insider selling, virtually no insider buying -negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow -and on and on and on Technical   -on and on and on and on
Feb 10, 2010 1:53 am
howboutshoeshine:

[quote=Indyone][quote=NYCTrader]This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen. Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS. Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…







I think the other PIGS are already in the equation. What’s dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else. Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact. I’m long…at least for the first half of the year. Unlike most of the rest of you, I don’t know if I’ll be right or not, but the research I’ve read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run. When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I’ll be more cautious than I am today, but for now…call me a bull…but don’t call me dumb.[/quote]



I have had this debate a million times, but I don’t think anyone is stupid. I just think you’re believing what you’re told instead of just using common sense.

-You brought up PE’s. Well…the 70’s recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???

Fundamental

-higher taxes for rich

-printing press for fed govt.

-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)

-less income for average person

-high unemployment ( and getting worse )

-Private sector professionals going govt.??

-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying

-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow

-and on and on and on

Technical





-on and on and on and on[/quote]



Thanks Rosenberg…we will get back to you sooon…
Feb 10, 2010 3:12 am

[quote=Shania Twain] ok…shine.



Today was some really crappy action.

Mutual fund Monday also.



Bulls need to make a stand here.



pivot   1070ish area



do not want to violate Friday’s low.

today was really disappointing



just like early July (July 7th wash out)

bulls will make a stand here.



judgement time



[/quote]



Bulls need to make a stand here.



bingo.



Sell off over.   



Friday intra-day all you bears get.



today was a perfect and important day.





(BTW: Greece bullshti means zip)



TEAR DOWN THAT WALL.



God bless global free markets.   get on BULL MONEY TRAIN

Feb 10, 2010 4:58 am

hhmmmmmm. Not sure how today qualified as good.

Feb 10, 2010 12:19 pm


Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%)

S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%)

Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%)



excuse me

Feb 10, 2010 2:28 pm
Shania Twain:


Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%)
S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%)
Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%)

excuse me

  Meaningless-remember when the DOW popped up 16% in one day in October? Shania- price by itself is meaningless. I rrealize you do not watch technicals, ( from your posts ) but this is why you have a hard time making calls. Statistics, time, price, etc. etc. etc. will always be on a bulls side. However, when you're wrong......bears( aka.... .smart money.....aka the guys that WERE bulls ) take it ALL back!   What happened to 1071? found new support?