Will this insanity ever end?

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Sep 17, 2008 7:44 pm

So I would like to hear some of your thoughts on whats been going on out there in the markets

-Lehman and Bear no longer existing

-The 1000 pt. drop in 3 days.

-What investments would you suggest in this environment?


Im definetely playing hard defense in this environment.  Treasuries, Munis and some high quality corp. FI.  Oh and lets not forget cash. 

Love to hear some of the thoughts

Sep 17, 2008 7:47 pm

I don't know.  A negative T-bill rate doesn't bode well for many investors. 

Sep 17, 2008 8:09 pm
snaggletooth:

I don't know.  A negative T-bill rate doesn't bode well for many investors. 

 
Unless you bought them before the rate went negative.
Sep 17, 2008 8:47 pm
tryintomakeit:

So I would like to hear some of your thoughts on whats been going on out there in the markets

-Lehman and Bear no longer existing

-The 1000 pt. drop in 3 days.

-What investments would you suggest in this environment?


Im definetely playing hard defense in this environment.  Treasuries, Munis and some high quality corp. FI.  Oh and lets not forget cash. 

Love to hear some of the thoughts

 
You have to learn (memeorize verbatim) Don Connelly's (Putnam - I know they suck but he's very good) crystal ball story.  Practice it, memorize it, and tell it to everyone - EVERYONE YOU SPEAK TO FOR THE NEXT 3O YEARS OF YOUR CAREER.  In the end however you must ask them "what's worse, missing the next 20% up or 20% down move in the market?"  Act according to their response at this point.  Noone will ever blame you for getting them out of stocks in the midst of a freefall regardless of the long term result.  They will, however, blame you for riding it out against their will (see: "well what do you think I should do?" 
Sep 17, 2008 9:50 pm

Love the Connelly speech Beef.  Got the tape with the crystal ball story when I first came into the business and still swear by it.

As for the negative T-bill  rates, that does unsettle me quite a bit.  If a client is comfortable with some risk in FI, I usually go for Aussie or Canadian bonds (better yield and seemingly getting it right as opposed to Uncle Sam).  Munis are becoming a cornerstone with Obama looking more and more like the next Prez, and lets face it taxes are going up either way with the atrocious amount of debt the U.S. is carrying.

My prediction on gold came true today with it skyrocketing 11% in one day.   Either way, its going to be a rough year or two until all this blows over. 

Sep 17, 2008 10:53 pm

What exactly is being in the midst of a freefall? Today could be the bottom, then what? You take them out and were at 12000 in a month? You guys trying to predict and pull clients in and out aren't advisors, you are butchers. With that being said, keep doing what your doing, it will help the rest of us.

Sep 17, 2008 10:56 pm
Ron 14:

What exactly is being in the midst of a freefall? Today could be the bottom, then what? You take them out and were at 12000 in a month? You guys trying to predict and pull clients in and out aren't advisors, you are butchers. With that being said, keep doing what your doing, it will help the rest of us.

 
Some of us moved in January.  Tell my clients I am a butcher please....
Sep 17, 2008 11:01 pm
Primo:
Ron 14:

What exactly is being in the midst of a freefall? Today could be the bottom, then what? You take them out and were at 12000 in a month? You guys trying to predict and pull clients in and out aren't advisors, you are butchers. With that being said, keep doing what your doing, it will help the rest of us.

 
Some of us moved in January.  Tell my clients I am a butcher please....
 
Primo, I wish I was like you.  Seriously.
Sep 17, 2008 11:03 pm

No, I should have moved harder to bonds.  I am suffering as much as the next guy.  Well maybe not as much.

Sep 17, 2008 11:18 pm
iceco1d:

He's a Vikings fan...be careful what you wish for Snags!  

 
Could be a Ben-gay-gals fan.
Sep 17, 2008 11:22 pm
iceco1d:

 
Wow I made ice cry!  For the others, if you want to accomplish the same, post short to the point responses to ice for the same result.  Ana, long diatribes just piss him off.
Sep 17, 2008 11:25 pm
iceco1d:

He's a Vikings fan...be careful what you wish for Snags!  

 
Uh oh, I hate the Vikings now that they have Steve Hutchinson.  He was very important to my team.
 
Although Adrian Peterson is fun to watch.
Sep 17, 2008 11:32 pm

I don't know them guys.

Sep 17, 2008 11:37 pm
Primo:
snaggletooth:

I don't know.  A negative T-bill rate doesn't bode well for many investors. 

 
Unless you bought them before the rate went negative.



Nice call.

Sep 17, 2008 11:39 pm

Not so nice, wish I had started much much sooner.

Sep 18, 2008 10:37 am

Primo -

 
If you can call market movements why be an advisor? Go lease a seat at a futures exchange and you will make a ton more money. When the market first hit 12k 2 years ago you probably sold some people out also, oops, next stop 14k.
Sep 18, 2008 11:52 am

Ron, the market warranted a move higher once it hit 12...it didn't at 13500...So..good job Primo...I now am prepared to start talking about putting money back into the market...slowly..over 12 months. FYI, I just made a call to my Morgan buddy...no answer...in an office of 10 advisors.  Must be something going on....

Sep 18, 2008 12:41 pm

I'm on the side of hoping this is close to capitulation.  But shit like this scares me:

 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/worst-yet-come-investment-strategist/story.aspx?guid=55B21789-3A26-495A-B0D3-5AF3F6ABDA18&dist=SecMostRead
Sep 18, 2008 12:50 pm

Dr. David Kelly put out a nice client-approved piece on 9/15 called "Keeping Wall Street Turmoil in Perspective".  If's a balanced piece that acknowledges the current turmoil while giving some perspective as to what might be in store.  Read it and share it with clients and you'll all feel a bit better.  No cycle goes on forever, and it's not even in dispute that we started this one with a lot lower overall valuation than we did in 2000-2002.

 
BTW, Dr. Kelly's market insight pieces are put out by JP Morgan if you're interested in getting that one.  I'd upload it, but we don't have the good software here yet.  It appears I was partially mistaken.  Home IP works fine.
Sep 18, 2008 1:01 pm
Indyone:

Dr. David Kelly put out a nice client-approved piece on 9/15 called "Keeping Wall Street Turmoil in Perspective".  If's a balanced piece that acknowledges the current turmoil while giving some perspective as to what might be in store.  Read it and share it with clients and you'll all feel a bit better.  No cycle goes on forever, and it's not even in dispute that we started this one with a lot lower overall valuation than we did in 2000-2002.

 
BTW, Dr. Kelly's market insight pieces are put out by JP Morgan if you're interested in getting that one.  I'd upload it, but we don't have the good software here yet.  I would have posted it on the other forum, but apparently, I've found my way back into the doghouse over there again...
 
Thanks Indy.  I received all that David Kelly commentary too.  I was even on the conference call the other day.  This is just getting ridiculous.