Scary

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Jun 15, 2009 8:04 pm

http://www.dshort.com/charts/bears/mega-bear-SP-and-Dow-real-large.gif








 
 
Note the similarities...
Jun 15, 2009 8:12 pm

What is scary about it ?

Jun 16, 2009 10:01 am

Oh, I don't know.  Maybe the eerie similarity between 2000+ and 1929+.  If history is a guide, and we continue tracing the same path we have the past 9 years, and follow that trend, we would be sideways for the NEXT 9 years.

 
Are you just trying to be a punk, or were you seriously wondering?
Jun 16, 2009 10:07 am

That is scary for the 55+ crowd.  I think for anyone younger that it means we have more years to stuff as much away as we can at lower prices and then HOPEFULLY watch it explode higher at or near retirement.   

Jun 16, 2009 10:09 am

Now you know why Indexed Annuities make more sense than anything else. 

Jun 16, 2009 1:52 pm

B24 - Trying to be a punk because I am so tired of this gloom and doom crap. If we move sideways for 10 more years the only person that shouldn't be in the market is someone who is 80. If you are 70 take your dividends and income and smile.

Jun 16, 2009 2:13 pm

I wouldn't call it doom and gloom.  If someone could go back and tell you that the market would crash in 2000 for 3 years, and again in 2008, would you call that "doom and gloom"? 

 
Trying to be realistic here.  It's about economic indicators.  Unemployment, PE ratios, inflation instability (both low and high), real estate values and liquidity, credit availability, etc.  There's plenty of things to be concerned about.  But by understanding these things, we can actually help our clients profit from (or be "less hurt" by) this instability, rather than just sit back and be victims and whine about all the "doom and gloom".
 
So what if you are 50?  You just wiped out a lifetime of investment growth in the past 10 years (most didn't start investing until their 40's, so they spent the past 10 years most likely losing money, since it's all in their 401K's, which are generally terrible).  So if the NEXT 10 years goes sideways, then that means 20 years of no growth, and puts them close to retirement age.  Wouldn't you rather have a PLAN than just hoping for the best in market?
 
Jun 16, 2009 2:25 pm

How exactly have they lost money over the last 10 years ? If they were 40, were contributing each and every month into their 401k's in a generic balanced asset allocation fund they are up a 1% or so and have accumulated a ton of shares. You can read economic indicators, PE ratios, unemployment and all the jazz until you are blue in the face, it wont change the fact that systematically making deposits and systematically making withdrawals, while keep clients in an allocation they can stomach is the only way to succeed over time. Most people won't do that, won't stick to a plan and that is where we come in. Not to read economic indicators and play bozo buckets with their funds.

Jun 16, 2009 3:31 pm
B24:

Oh, I don't know.  Maybe the eerie similarity between 2000+ and 1929+.  If history is a guide, and we continue tracing the same path we have the past 9 years, and follow that trend, we would be sideways for the NEXT 9 years. 

 
I can only wish!!!! Talk about arb heaven. While the trend traders are sniveling I'll be making huge amounts of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Jun 16, 2009 3:34 pm

Ron 14    "ONLY WAY"

 
Dude I hope you are not so narrow minded as to think that same old schtick is the only game in town.
Jun 16, 2009 3:41 pm

We have gone over this before. For long term retirement money I believe that is the best game in town, is it the only game, no.

Jun 16, 2009 3:44 pm

Well, you said "only way"

Jun 16, 2009 3:46 pm

Well it isn't possible to make systematic withdrawals from options that haven't expired

Jun 16, 2009 3:48 pm

I am not convinced that discretionary trading of options within clients retirement accounts will succeed over time. If that makes me closed minded so be it.

Jun 16, 2009 3:53 pm
Ron 14:

Well it isn't possible to make systematic withdrawals from options that haven't expired

 
?????? AND ????????
 
You can't spend a dividend until it's paid so WTF is your point?
 
Not trying to convince you Ron.
 
 
Jun 16, 2009 3:56 pm
Ron 14:

I am not convinced that discretionary trading of options within clients retirement accounts will succeed over time. If that makes me closed minded so be it.

 
I think the words "closed minded" is being kind.
 
Whatever blows up your skirt Ron. 
Jun 16, 2009 4:01 pm
Gaddock:
Ron 14:

Well it isn't possible to make systematic withdrawals from options that haven't expired

 
?????? AND ????????
 
You can't spend a dividend until it's paid so WTF is your point?
 
Not trying to convince you Ron.
 
 
 
My F'in point is that systematic withdrawals are something I use for clients in retirement. It isn't possible to make systematic withdrawals from options that haven't expired. And because I still don't agree with you after all of these discussions and you don't agree with me you play the tough guy routine. Like I said, let me know when you fly into Chicago, I will meet you at the airport.
 
 
Jun 16, 2009 4:19 pm

Tough guy routine?????? Is your skin that thin? What are you going to do Ron? Beat me up?????? 


Perhaps if you would refrain from making moronic statements like my way is the "ONLY WAY" you would not be so easily picked apart.
 
I do enjoy your excitability. It's really quite amusing.
Jun 16, 2009 4:40 pm

Jun 16, 2009 5:05 pm
Ron 14:

How exactly have they lost money over the last 10 years ? If they were 40, were contributing each and every month into their 401k's in a generic balanced asset allocation fund they are up a 1% or so and have accumulated a ton of shares. You can read economic indicators, PE ratios, unemployment and all the jazz until you are blue in the face, it wont change the fact that systematically making deposits and systematically making withdrawals, while keep clients in an allocation they can stomach is the only way to succeed over time. Most people won't do that, won't stick to a plan and that is where we come in. Not to read economic indicators and play bozo buckets with their funds.

 
OK.   Just keep doing what you're doing.