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Feb 20, 2008 11:42 pm



 
 
1.
"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927

2.
"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

3.
"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928

4.
"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

5.
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929

6.
"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929

7.
"The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929

"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929

8.
"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

9.
"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929

10.
"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

11.
"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

12.
"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

13.
"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930

14.
"... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930


15.
"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

16.
"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930

17.
"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

18.
"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

19.
"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931

20.
"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

21.
22 Years go by, WWII, Korean war, before the market gets back to EVEN.

Feb 21, 2008 1:40 am

You forgot to put all the quotes at the bottom saying how the stock market is dead, and then show what happened for the rest of the century.

Feb 21, 2008 9:34 am

Hey...its just "past performance".....now READ and look at #4.....sounds alot like today.

Feb 21, 2008 10:22 am

I hope you're not implying that only those who make bullish predictions are only wrong.  Seems to me that trying to predict the future leads to frequent failure for both bears and bulls.  An equal opportunity destroyer, as it were.

Reminds me of a favorite quote from famous economist John Kenneth Galbraith: "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."

Feb 21, 2008 10:52 am

Of course not..bulls have been right about 3/4th of the time..no one can predict the future...no one.

 
Morph, we've touched on this before.  Credit is in the worst shape in history, the financial market is faltering, and we have supply/demand crisis in commodities and oil.  It is just an educated opinion on my part...like Indy said..time will tell.
Feb 21, 2008 11:08 am
Broker7:

 
21.
22 Years go by, WWII, Korean war, before the market gets back to EVEN.

 
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I think this is NOT including reinvesting dividends, which would make a substantial difference.  I'm not saying that it wasn't bad, but that it may not be as dismal as this statistic would indicate.
 
FWIW, the book that has helped me the most in this job was required reading for a college statistics course "How to Lie with Statistics".  It helps keep the BS antenna up whenever I see numbers posted by someone trying to sell me something or get me to sell something for them.  Not that Broker7 cares if I go short or long, but I'm guessing this is not something he created himself over the weekend.
Feb 21, 2008 11:46 am

7, with each post you become increasingly irrelevant to this forum.

Feb 21, 2008 12:00 pm
Big Taco:

7, with each post you become increasingly irrelevant to this forum.



I don't agree, my large Mexican food friend.  I certainly don't agree with 7's viewpoint of the imminent global financial apocalypse, but so long as he is willing to try and rationally support and defend his position rather than just state it, no harm no foul. 

That doesn't mean I'm going to invite him to my next party to provide light comic relief!

Feb 21, 2008 12:07 pm
Broker7:

Credit is in the worst shape in history, the financial market is faltering, and we have supply/demand crisis in commodities and oil.

 
Again, all three assertions are opinion and not fact and while I'll acknowledge that the global economy is far from problem-free, I don't share any of these opinions. 
 
Not long ago when we were discussing oil supply and demand, I provided a link that shows current excess capacity of just under two million barrels a day, with the surplus forecasted to go to four million barrels per day in 2009.  Of course, OPEC, Chavez or whoever can choose to not run at capacity, which they've certainly done at times, to support or drive up current prices and profits, but I would argue that we are not using more than we are capable of producing.  Such a situation would make the price of oil go off the charts...much higher than we're seeing.  The day that happens, you will see alternative fuel research go through the roof, and the last oil reserves will never be extracted.  As an aside, I've seen some folks on the bull side arguing that oil is not organic and is actually regenerating and expanding reserves in some deep gulf fields.  Apparently neither the bulls nor the bears have cornered the market on lunatics.
Feb 21, 2008 12:13 pm
EDJ4now:
Broker7:

 
21.
22 Years go by, WWII, Korean war, before the market gets back to EVEN.

 
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I think this is NOT including reinvesting dividends, which would make a substantial difference.  I'm not saying that it wasn't bad, but that it may not be as dismal as this statistic would indicate.
 
FWIW, the book that has helped me the most in this job was required reading for a college statistics course "How to Lie with Statistics".  It helps keep the BS antenna up whenever I see numbers posted by someone trying to sell me something or get me to sell something for them.  Not that Broker7 cares if I go short or long, but I'm guessing this is not something he created himself over the weekend.
 
I'm pretty sure that is correct and more on point, dividends used to represent about half of total return, so that statement is flawed at best.  It just goes to show that there's a lot of truth in your book.  It's not hard at all to find valid statistics to defend two opposing postions...it's done in politics all the time...
Feb 21, 2008 6:12 pm
Morphius:
Big Taco:

7, with each post you become increasingly irrelevant to this forum.



I don't agree, my large Mexican food friend.  I certainly don't agree with 7's viewpoint of the imminent global financial apocalypse, but so long as he is willing to try and rationally support and defend his position rather than just state it, no harm no foul. 

That doesn't mean I'm going to invite him to my next party to provide light comic relief!

 
Allright, I forgot to insert "IMO" in my post.  Yes Morphius, I speak for myself, not anyone else here.
 
I just wrote to 7 in reply to his IM that I think his GEAB and Depression posts are akin to yellow journalism, in otherwords; spin and sensationalism which add up to nothing.  It's like part of the Early Show I caught this morning where Harry Smith and some other windbag went on and on about how Swaps are surely going to lead to global economic collapse in the near future -- and yet it was clear to me that for all the big talk and out-there parallels drawn, there wasn't even a reasonable explanation of what a Swap is!  Average Americans just learned 6 months ago what a sub prime mortgage is...  It was nothing more than sensationalistic fear mongering!  The rhetoric they used was unbelievable -- it was  like the GEAB website and had the tone of a raunchy ghost story told around a campfire.  I half expected Harry to be holding a flashlight up to his chin when the B-roll was finished.
 
I could just see ma and pa client waking up, eating their oatmeal, drinking their coffee, and then these nincompoops try to scare the crap out of them before 7am with complete drivel.  I told my wife I'm going to have to start eating breakfast in the den if she insists on watching these hacks.  I'll watch my TiVo'd Reno:911! and start the day off right--with a smile.
 
So, speaking for myself, to me 7 is becoming increasingly irrelevant to the quality of this forum (which I see as relatively high), although he seems like a nice enough guy all the same. 
 
I'm not the Content Police, some folks would rather read Weekly World News instead of TIME.  So be it.  Let's say the next few years are The Great Depression II.  The market WILL rebound eventually.  OR, we'll all just have to reconcile ourselves to living on an acreage, planting a garden, curing and scraping hides, cutting down trees for heating fuel (or burning dollar bills), reading by candlelight, bartering, fending off marauders (or marauding).  So looking at a crackpot website and a line chart that ends at the bottom of the depression seems like a waste of time to me.  Like the Early Show.
Feb 21, 2008 6:55 pm

Quality of this forum as in a high and mighty bull market optimists Kneal , Kudlow and cramer?? Or do you even consider the other side of the coin?  There is alot of quality there too.   I've seen my fair share of idiots (ms Obama derivatives and good old Kerko to name a few) on this forum..and you definitely are not one of them, Taco.  You also seem like a good guy.  DID THEY REALLY TALK ABOUT CDS's ON THE MORNING SHOW TODAY???


Dang...that's not drivel..it is a fundamental concern.  What the heck does CBS have to gain by fearmongering??
That seems very very mainstream for such dire news......Just agree to disagree or just don't view my posts..peace
This was on CNBC today..it is worth watching:


http://release.theplatform.com/content.select?pid=0BsjygRBD_8wiWRTRiq44kHrEhFtl2L&[email protected]&key=DMMYXpOPczgAMnA8pBHFkwPx3cY%3D&reporting=part=TOS|parttype=VOD|partcode=40642
Feb 21, 2008 7:31 pm
Broker7:

Dang...that's not drivel..it is a fundamental concern.  What the heck does CBS have to gain by fearmongering??




 
Fear sells my friend fear sells.
Feb 21, 2008 8:09 pm

Apparently, hope does, too. Look at Barack...

Feb 22, 2008 9:35 am

Fear and Hope..yes.  What we need is a PLAN.  Buddy of mine from the Hoosier state eailed me this.

 
http://www.indianaeconomicdigest.net/main.asp?SectionID=31&SubSectionID=62
Feb 22, 2008 11:34 am

OK, Dennis Hopper, that's yet another one-sided report being used to serve an agenda.  Where are all the new businesses and expansions of current businesses?  Indiana's December 2007 unemployment rate was 4.6%...as opposed to the national rate of 5.0%.  Apparently people are not having difficulty replacing these jobs.  IIRC, a new Honda plant is coming online in Indiana and apparently, there are a lot of new jobs to offset these losses...

 
http://www.indianaeconomicdigest.net/main.asp?SectionID=31&subsectionID=64&articleID=38464
 
Feb 25, 2008 10:09 am

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSDXB00015620080225


Greenspan acknowledges oil crisis.
 

"As of right now, U.S. economic growth is at zero," Greenspan said at an investment conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city. "We are at stall speed."


"Recovery might take longer to emerge than it usually does," he added.


The longer growth stays at zero, the more likely the world's largest economy would start to contract, he said, adding that globalization of trade could ease some shocks.




Greenspan also said a boom in oil prices, which hit a record of $101.32 on Wednesday, will "go on forever".


Soaring crude prices have kept U.S. inflation high, even as growth slows

Feb 25, 2008 12:22 pm

LOL, nothing goes forever.  Markets adjust.  Even if it takes 100 years, forever is an overstatement.  (It's always different this time until it's the same.  Sounds like even Greenspan isn't immune to over-exuberance and exaggerations.)

 
What do you think forever really is 5 yrs?  10 yrs?  I say less than 5.
 
Plus how can it go on forever if it is a finite resource? C'mon
What  a ridiculous comment by Mr. Greenspan, he's a little full of himself I think.
Feb 25, 2008 7:45 pm

as far as oil prices increasing goes...you say,  less than 5 years..and then what?  Do you have a fundamental basis for making that statement?   Greenspan does.


Nothing goes forever...you said it




Feb 25, 2008 8:32 pm

Look, trying to take my words out of context with a record you can't remove only makes you look stupid.  Of course prices will increase forever it's called inflation. 


You referred to the BOOM in oil prices.  Oil is up over 50% in the past 12 monhts, why don't you tell us how long that will continue you freaking idiot. 
 
Here is a lesson even you and Greenspan can understand, ECON 101.  Increased demand brings new entrants to the market which increase supply and/or creates substitutes.  Therefore over time things revert to sustainable mediums.  Prices cannot rise at unsustainable rates indefinitely.   
 
In addition I was clearly not trying to PREDICT a time frame of five years and I won't try to have a fundamental basis.  I'm GUESSING.  Just like you and Greenspan are guessing.  You really have no more clue than anyone else.  Oil could be $40 in a year for all any of us know.