If the saga at Silicon Valley Bank hastens the arrival of the next recession, expect to see many more properties go into default sooner rather than later. This is bad news for lenders because they have ramped up their financing of real estate.

A rising number of investment platforms, asset managers and sponsors are tapping into retail investor appetite for private real estate assets.

Banks are being compelled to pull back from real estate lending in the face of falling values and the imminent introduction of new Basel III rules that introduce a minimum capital floor.

If national growth needs to decelerate, conditions are likely to get worse for the Bay Area and Seattle.

Some highly-leveraged investors who bought at the market peak are running out of time and may be forced to sell.

Gunnar Branson, CEO of AFIRE, provides insights into what’s influencing the decisions of cross-border investors at this point in the cycle.