I’m surprised if it’ll be as late as August. I heard the next round which is supposed to clip off the next bottom 10% at the producer level was to be 90 days from the last cut max. That would put it in July. It’s the guy who just missed the $250 bar that is probably out. It’ll be a flood if it happens with a bunch of $200-$350k guys leaving in droves from SB and MS at the same time.

It’ll be a flood if it happens with a bunch of $200-$350k guys leaving in droves from SB and MS at the same time.

Why so quickly at SB/Morgan? That faucet is already on smaller producers are leaving in droves… starving out or will be starved it I’d can only assume.  I don’t see a UBS style cut as attrition seems to be cutting heads down. 

Sure…just wasn’t following why there more than elsewhere—isn’t the same thing happening/ going to happen at Merrill and to some extent WF/Wachovia?  Thought maybe you were tying to the SB/MS merger vs. what has been said elsewhere–that attrition will be a slow bleed as invidual FAs see writing on the wall or feel the pain.

i heard next month for UBS

This morning I’ve heard from 2 separate and very reliable sources that indeed another cut is on the way. Supposedly up to the $400k in production if post NFA.   Timing was unclear but both were thinking 30-60 days vs. longer.  The thinking is that a buyer is in the wings or at least on deck and another cut ‘cleans up’ the least profitable players.   Anyone hearing similar info??

Consistent with what I was hearing on the way out…that 250-400k were going to be given 90 days to improve.  I heard conflicting accounts regarding signed agreements as part of the 90 day plan.

90 days from 4/23 is end of July…or in the time frame that has been mentioned.

Is the firm still going to be carved up or be sold to 1 entity ?  Who are the rumored suitors ?

Thanks.

How could any broker even care who gets let go at UBS??  I realize a little stress and hassle for awhile, but if I was there doing 200K -400K and they said we are going to have to let you go I would start laughing…and walk out.  Guess what I dont get is why anyone under 750K would even work there after this stuff?

I asked around and am hearing Barclays and Deutsche Bank… rumors only. If I were at UBS and doing significant production, I think either could make one bad a$$ firm down the road.  Deutsche Bank’s US operations, at least as of now, don’t buy coffee for guys < $1M and get excited when you’re much larger.   Whether it’s these guys or not, I think the relevance is more around the future of the big wires and the type of advisor or team they really want or need. Were I at a wirehouse, UBS or any other, and < $500k, I’d be feathering my nest elsewhere. I heard more this afternoon from another source that in my view confirms that UBS is going to take action and move on the bottom tiers for sure. This same source told me about the prior cuts 60 days or so before they went down. 

I asked around and am hearing Barclays and Deutsche Bank… rumors only. If I were at UBS and doing significant production, I think either could make one bad a$$ firm down the road.  Deutsche Bank’s US operations, at least as of now, don’t buy coffee for guys < $1M and get excited when you’re much larger.   Whether it’s these guys or not, I think the relevance is more around the future of the big wires and the type of advisor or team they really want or need. Were I at a wirehouse, UBS or any other, and < $500k, I’d be feathering my nest elsewhere. I heard more this afternoon from another source that in my view confirms that UBS is going to take action and move on the bottom tiers for sure. This same source told me about the prior cuts 60 days or so before they went down. 

Know that without the forgiveable loan they would not care, but that is a headache for them.

I’m confused Fritz. Are you saying that the forgivable loan they got when the went to UBS is standing in their way of an exit?  If an FA is in the crosshairs at least potentially and may get cut in the near term and that FA still owes the firm money that could be a problem. I know a guy in that situation who waited to get fired on 4/23 so he could then move without having to repay the money. That happened, but at the same time… because he held off and was then in a serious hurry to land a job and did not have the time to do enough due dilligence on firms and had to ‘take’ what he could get. He also got discounted to nearly zero by the firm that hired him because he was fired vs. leaving on his own. In think he could have probably settled on the money owed before getting fired.  It’s a catch 22 perhaps