Predictions
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Well, Alan Skrainka says it’s a great time to buy, so I am buying as much PG, JNJ, and AIVSX as I can get my hands on.
It has been and will continue to be a traders market. This is a bear market rally that we have experienced the past 8 months with little volume. As for next year, stocks are currently pricing in a 4% growth rate in GDP. The real unemployment rate is 16.8% as we look at it today, banks continue to fail at record pace, and for the first time since WW II credit, wages and rents have decreased at the same time. Consumer spending is non existent, credit is tight to consumers and small businesses. M1 and M2 supply is drying up. The oracle himself is shifting out of equity into income. Yeah, I am sure the S & P will do GREAT next year!
What is the “Real Unemployment Rate”? I assume it has to do with “underemployed” and “no longer seeking employment”? Just curious.
Continued run up in the market, possible 25-40% gain for the year. BUT…the commercial real estate problems will hit Q2 next year and you better have your clients prepared for another collapse of the market. IMHO…
I totally agree with this. We haven't begun to see the worst of the real estate crisis. This will hit when the commercial real estate bubble not only pops, but bursts!Continued run up in the market, possible 25-40% gain for the year. BUT…the commercial real estate problems will hit Q2 next year and you better have your clients prepared for another collapse of the market. IMHO…
Who says the market’s priced in a 4% GDP rise and if don’t get that all hell will break loose. Maybe the market priced in the great depression back in march, realized we’re not in the 30’s and we are coming up to sustainable levels. Economic indicators are pointing positive albiet with a jobless recovery. The jobs will eventually come.
This is a stock pickers markets and if you can pick stocks you can pick off clients. There are still stocks out there 50% undervalued you just have to be willing to hold onto for awhile. I predict once we break 10,000 the media may start pounding the drum that the recovery is taking place and of course everyone who didn't get in since March missed a 50% gain.[quote=Kudlowfan] Who says the market’s priced in a 4% GDP rise and if don’t get that all hell will break loose. Maybe the market priced in the great depression back in march, realized we’re not in the 30’s and we are coming up to sustainable levels. Economic indicators are pointing positive albiet with a jobless recovery. The jobs will eventually come.
This is a stock pickers markets and if you can pick stocks you can pick off clients. There are still stocks out there 50% undervalued you just have to be willing to hold onto for awhile. I predict once we break 10,000 the media may start pounding the drum that the recovery is taking place and of course everyone who didn't get in since March missed a 50% gain.[/quote] Earnings, earnings, earnings, earnings. You can't have a recovery with a lack of earnings. You can do it at 10% unemployment (assuming we eventually reverse course - it's always a trailing indicator), but you can't recover without earnings. I hate to say "it's different this time", but economically, it is. The only saving grace is that the unemployment rate in 12/1982 was 10.8%. We all know what happened after that. However, the 82-99 Bull saw some of the greatest increases in productivity in history, as well as a push towards globalization. Other than in emerging markets, we see neither of those re-occurring any time soon (hint, go BRIC!).“except for emerging markets” ?
The following is why the next 20 years in financial markets are going to be WAY above the norm. Will make 82-99 growth seem small.
Free market horse out of the barn.
“competition for global resources” and massive wealth creation.
get long.
sub-prime a footnote and last awesome entry point.
As time goes on, we will continue to be blown away by valuations on march 9, 2009.
We will be old fukcs saying "yep sonny, I was there was IP, TXT,IR,BAC,AXP,hig etc etc were under 10 bucks. We will act like bad asses that we were buying like crazy (instead of in fetal position on floor).
And that most clients (and us) forgot about the cheese and wanted out of the MF trap.
Brazil
Chile
China
Colombia
Czech Republic
Egypt
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Israel[8]
Malaysia
Mexico
Morocco
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Russia
South Africa
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
As someone who actually bought on March 9th…and then sold Friday August 28th, (a 106% return), I fully believe we have seen the highs for the year. We are do for a 10% - 12% correction; and dips should be bought starting below 9000. To say we will go below 8200 on the DJIA (or more) is foolish and strikes of someone who is bitter for missing the initial move. For 2010, I do believe we will see DJIA 10,700ish.
Stocks I bought on March 9th: AA CAT UNP X DRYS GE WYNN FAS COP CVX DD FCX FLR JOYG KFT MSFT PFE