The BULL everyone hates
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Doesn't a negative correlation of .88 mean that it's highly predictive. Based on that chart, it would appear it is based on fundamentals of the dollar for the broader market.
Here’s a good reason. The rally is not based on fundamentals
Doesn't a negative correlation of .88 mean that it's highly predictive. Based on that chart, it would appear it is based on fundamentals of the dollar for the broader market.[/quote][quote=downdowndown]
Here’s a good reason. The rally is not based on fundamentals
LSU - yes.
Sure, but if the stocks are at rather lofty multiples then wouldn’t that assume things would get better. Shouldn’t the dollar then be going up?
The entire mkt now is based on the biggest bang for the buck. It’s controlled by traders playing the dollar dow trade, but it does not really make too much sense. when stocks go up on something that doesn’t make sense…bad things happen. ( tech bubble )…maybe not today but I think soon…plus the volume is slowing as we go up
[quote=downdowndown] Sure, but if the stocks are at rather lofty multiples then wouldn’t that assume things would get better. Shouldn’t the dollar then be going up?
The entire mkt now is based on the biggest bang for the buck. It’s controlled by traders playing the dollar dow trade, but it does not really make too much sense. when stocks go up on something that doesn’t make sense…bad things happen. ( tech bubble )…maybe not today but I think soon…plus the volume is slowing as we go up[/quote]
excellent
short it
hold cash
you should go all in short
maybe trip short
The dollar is weak?
Wow. That’s some great insight there.
Maybe we should tell someone?
1100 ish. and next 120 spee points UP quick
You asked for a reason why it should go down. I’ve given one . Why should it go up ( asset managers chasing performance is not a good reason )
Why do you need a reason? You nor I can predict it, so go with what the market is doing. A falling currency can be good for the stock market. Money searches for returns, and a low interest rates combined with a falling dollar is a losing proposition. IMO, the market is simply a measure of risk acceptance or aversion. Valuations, currency moves, jobs reports, government policies, and anything else you can think of is nice to talk about, but at the end of the day it is mental doodling.
If you feel this way, you must be a technition. And you see that technically we are worse off than we are fundamentally. You are short?Why do you need a reason? You nor I can predict it, so go with what the market is doing. A falling currency can be good for the stock market. Money searches for returns, and a low interest rates combined with a falling dollar is a losing proposition. IMO, the market is simply a measure of risk acceptance or aversion. Valuations, currency moves, jobs reports, government policies, and anything else you can think of is nice to talk about, but at the end of the day it is mental doodling.
Why do you need a reason? You nor I can predict it, so go with what the market is doing. A falling currency can be good for the stock market. Money searches for returns, and a low interest rates combined with a falling dollar is a losing proposition. IMO, the market is simply a measure of risk acceptance or aversion. Valuations, currency moves, jobs reports, government policies, and anything else you can think of is nice to talk about, but at the end of the day it is mental doodling.
None of it matters until it does!
In late January 2000, Abby Joseph Cohen, chief U.S. market strategist at Goldman Sachs said, "Returns will be good, but not great." Ralph Acampora of Prudential Securities, another highly respected analyst, saw the main indexes rising perhaps 20% to 25%. "2000 will be, on balance, a very, very good year," he said on January 8th of that year. He went on to say, "this could last another four or five years."
Also, in June of 2000, the USA Today polled several high-profile market "experts" for their outlook on the second half of that year. Thomas Galvin, of the former Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette firm, predicted stocks would head "much higher". Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones said, "We're pretty upbeat." Morgan Stanley's frequently publicized opinions from Mary Meeker included, "The Bull market in stocks shows no indications of slowing down."
[quote=downdowndown] Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones said, “We’re pretty upbeat.” Morgan Stanley’s frequently publicized opinions from Mary Meeker included, “The Bull market in stocks shows no indications of slowing down.”[/quote]
I wasn’t bearish until just now. Do whatever the opposite of what Skrainka is saying.
[quote=downdowndown]
None of it matters until it does!
In late January 2000, Abby Joseph Cohen, chief U.S. market strategist at Goldman Sachs said, “Returns will be good, but not great.” Ralph Acampora of Prudential Securities, another highly respected analyst, saw the main indexes rising perhaps 20% to 25%. “2000 will be, on balance, a very, very good year,” he said on January 8th of that year. He went on to say, “this could last another four or five years.”
Also, in June of 2000, the USA Today polled several high-profile market “experts” for their outlook on the second half of that year. Thomas Galvin, of the former Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette firm, predicted stocks would head “much higher”. Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones said, “We’re pretty upbeat.” Morgan Stanley’s frequently publicized opinions from Mary Meeker included, “The Bull market in stocks shows no indications of slowing down.”[/quote]
great insights
I love u bears talking your book
give me more
Morean…read again…that quote was from the year 2000. My point was that ways to measure stocks do matter. The mkt is very inefficient on the short term. It’s just gambling. Time will produce the truth. It’s not different this time
If you feel this way, you must be a technition. And you see that technically we are worse off than we are fundamentally. You are short?[/quote] About 6'2" actually. No I am not short. Nor am I a trader.[quote=Jebediah]Why do you need a reason? You nor I can predict it, so go with what the market is doing. A falling currency can be good for the stock market. Money searches for returns, and a low interest rates combined with a falling dollar is a losing proposition. IMO, the market is simply a measure of risk acceptance or aversion. Valuations, currency moves, jobs reports, government policies, and anything else you can think of is nice to talk about, but at the end of the day it is mental doodling.
If you feel this way, you must be a technition. And you see that technically we are worse off than we are fundamentally. You are short?[/quote] About 6'2" actually. No I am not short. Nor am I a trader.[/quote] Funny. I do trade, however all of us that "manage" money should be aware of a markets health. If this market were a person it would have stage 4 cancer, HIV, H1N1, just nubs as limbs and a sniper shooting at it. It's going up, never denied that, but if you're not concerned then I have NO clue what you're looking at. Either you don't know or you're in denial, hoping for the best. As I said earlier, I hope this PIG does go up. that would sure make my life easier.[quote=howboutshoeshine][quote=Jebediah]Why do you need a reason? You nor I can predict it, so go with what the market is doing. A falling currency can be good for the stock market. Money searches for returns, and a low interest rates combined with a falling dollar is a losing proposition. IMO, the market is simply a measure of risk acceptance or aversion. Valuations, currency moves, jobs reports, government policies, and anything else you can think of is nice to talk about, but at the end of the day it is mental doodling.
None of it matters until it does!
Exactly. Here is what I equate this conversation to. Is it going to rain on July 4, 2010? Kind of important to know as many people make plans to be outside on this day. Reasons it won't: 1. Historically July 4 is rain free 79% of the time. 2. It has rained the previous two Fourth of July's, so the odds are against three in a row. 3. The Farmers Almanac says it won't. Reasons it will: 1. Global warming is leading to increased precipitation worldwide. 2. Two rainy 4ths is a trend to be continued. 3. 72% of the time when long term weather patterns have mimicked or current patterns it has rained on July 4 the following year. My point is this, how the hell knows? I tell my clients that I do not, but if it is raining on their portfolio July 4, 2010, I will let them know and we will take the steps necessary to stay dry. Full disclosure: all stated facts and opinions were made up for illustration purposes.What if there is an 80% chance a hurricane will strike between July 1st and July 14th?
70%?
60%?
50%?
Better to be safe than sorry?My point in referencing the post about the Dollar V. DOW correlation was that it was fundamental in nature. By that I mean it wasn’t based on the ‘paper’ of stocks as much as the underlying reason.
Fundamental trading typically refers to the individual companies and their underlying business or industry. Technical analysis is price action for the market. Now it could be argued that the technical analysis of the dollar versus the market as a whole is what is driving this. It could also be argued that the falling dollar is advantageous for most of the companies trading on the broader exchanges due to the global nature of their business. The cheaper dollar means (relative to the price they receive from goods/services overseas) the 'cost' of doing business outside of the US is lower. Thus a large portion of their business is now cheaper (much like falling commodity prices helps the supplier first, then potentially the consumer). The end result is that the broader market moves up. Is this technical analysis (which discounts the companies altogether and relies on talking about the 'paper' that is traded in a vacuum) or is it a fundamentally good thing for US companies as they become more profitable relative to their foreign competitors outside the US? Benefits of a falling dollar include a potential reversal of the ongoing trend to outsource labor overseas by US companies or moving manufacturing plants to Central/South America because the benefit is contingent upon the cost (labor in this instance) of doing business Domestically to be materially higher than abroad. Fewer outsourced jobs mean potential job creation domestically. Again, this is fundamental to business success, not technical analysis of the paper that is trading. It's kind of a chicken - or - the - egg argument.[quote=howboutshoeshine]
What if there is an 80% chance a hurricane will strike between July 1st and July 14th?
70%?
60%?
50%?
Better to be safe than sorry?[/quote] I dispute the % chance of something happening. What was the % chance of the market rising 50% in the following 6 months on March 9, 2009? The market and therefore it's price is based simply on the acceptance or aversion to risk. The P/E ratio on the market is lower now than on 3/31/2009. What does that say? I'm not telling you that you are wrong, I am saying that you have no way of knowing.