Bye, Bye, Bear Stearns?
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OK BG, I concede, no moped here.
The ST would be my choice just cause I’m a sportbike-type of guy but it’s probably not the best choice. I really can’t fathom someone trying the IB with a RoadKing though, that’s an awful long way for the less-than-dependable hog.
I hear ya. The ST is one of the best choices in the non Winnebiko category. And the truth is "ride what ya brung." Any bike you can get comfortable on will work. The list I provided is what experiece has taught us works best. As for Harley's and the IBA, they are building a solid reputation where as BMW's reliability has taken a serious hit. During last year's IBR there were multible BMW final drive failures. I sold my long of tooth K1200LT and I'am looking for a replacement. It was time. The reliabilty thing has got my attention, but man, do I love those bikes. Relevent thread content: So, any news in the markets today? We're all good, no worries, right?OK BG, I concede, no moped here.
The ST would be my choice just cause I’m a sportbike-type of guy but it’s probably not the best choice. I really can’t fathom someone trying the IB with a RoadKing though, that’s an awful long way for the less-than-dependable hog.
Ashland - I thanks for the kudos, but I’ve been around long enough to know, I got lucky today. I have no intention of pressing my luck. My opinion is tho, that we are way oversold and due for some kind of rally (duh). I think today showed that there is a lot of money coming in at around SPX 1280. The market is trying to find a bottom here, and IF we can hold and move higher frm these levels, it looks like a classic double bottom
Ice, we all get off topic once in a while. I did think the whole car thing, and how we got so far off the subject of markets and business building, was an asshole-ism;. But we all do it once in a while. And you and BondGuy are allowed, you've both got plenty of currency on this board. Lets hope for a good day tomorrow.[quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BondGuy]
And while I could run an IBA ride on my Honda Reflex NSS 250 scooter it would be ill advised to do so. [/quote]Ahhh....if you were really a tough guy you'd put on your Gore-Tex Gloves and electric vest and give it a try at least once!
[/quote] When it comes to riding motorcycles, I'm the biggest sissy out there! Actually, riding a Reflex scooter in the Iron Butt Rally has already been done. The Iron Butt rally for those who don't know, is an eleven day around the country motorcycle rally where riders try to get bonus points by riding to certain locations and either performing a task or answering a question. The rally is run on odd numbered years and has a different starting location each time. There are time controlled check points that the riders must hit to stay in the rally. And to give you a flavor of what it's about, the rally might start in say Birmingham Alabama with the first check point in San Diego Ca 57 hours later. There are bonus locations spread between Al. and Ca. but the biggest point grab is Key West Florida. Which happens to be almost 1000 miles in the wrong direction. Is it a leg winner or sucker bonus impossible to make? It's a sucker bonus, but as the rally goes on and fatigue starts to take hold obvious decisions like that aren't so simple. It's chess on a motorcycle. Most finishers will log over 10,000 miles with some over 12,000. The Reflex was ridden in the Hopeless Class , in fact, from Birminham to Alaska and back to Birmingham. The rider finished but was beaten by riders who had ridden from Birm to Dead Horse Alaska (Prudoe Bay, end of the haul road), then to Key West, thus hitting both the northern most part of the U.S. and its most Southern point as well, and then the thousand miles back to Alabama. All within the alotted time window. Sounds like fun doesn't it? Let's all do one.
[quote=iceco1d]
Our economy needs a strong dollar because, well, we don't build chit here. Most of the people I know are hurting right now because too much of their budget goes to put gas in their car and heat in their house. Strengthen the dollar, and those problems ease (gas would be under $2/gallon if the dollar went back to its value at the turn of the century). And if you ask me, $1.75 gas would put a heck of a lot of money into other sectors of the economy. So would sub-$2 heating oil. [/quote] It's a good post but I notice none of you ever talk about the fear that drives this stock market. Logic can only go so far in our market, imo. I still do not get the mind set of the American cnonsumer. They'll spend thousands purchasing nice cars but bail on their stocks everytime someone farts out news that is overblown.[quote=anabuhabkuss]
[/quote] It's a good post but I notice none of you ever talk about the fear that drives this stock market. Logic can only go so far in our market, imo. I still do not get the mind set of the American cnonsumer. They'll spend thousands purchasing nice cars but bail on their stocks everytime someone farts out news that is overblown.[/quote] I respectfully disagree, but first a question: You speak of the American consumer as if you are not one. Are you American? I disagree with your assessment because the American consumer is not the major driver behind day to day stock price movement. The maket is institutionally driven. At least it is on a day to day basis. It isn't the average American citizen bailing on stocks, it's the major hedge funds, pension plans, insurance companies etc whose managers are judged on a quarterly performance basis. Most of these managers will only get a one quarter of sub par performance free pass before they get the hook. Thus the frenzy you see. Jobs are on the line, futures are at stake. That's not to say that individual consumers are not a part of this. Of course they are. They just aren't the driver. My own book of clients is a prime example. I can count on one hand the number of clients who have said take me out. I sure the same holds true for most here. And I could be wrong. But if I am, who could blame consumers for wanting out? In 2001-03 while the experts said stay to course, anyone who did was worth 40% less when the dust settled. Of course those experts still got paid for rendering completely wrong advice.“In 2001-03 while the experts said stay to course, anyone who did was worth 40% less when the dust settled.”
That's only true if the same experts then told them to get out of the market in 2003. The dust doesn't settle until the investments get sold.Hi Bondguy,
I think I was mainly referencing a post by Ashland (I think) earlier who said he was moving his clients' cash into more aggressive funds. I was just wondering where he finds these clients. And yes I am American :) I was just generalizing the majority of my and the other brokers in my branch who ARE bailing no matter how much logic you spew at them but you're right we are very institutional driven (was tired and a tad drunk when I posted that last night).[quote=anabuhabkuss]Hi Bondguy,
I think I was mainly referencing a post by Ashland (I think) earlier who said he was moving his clients' cash into more aggressive funds. I was just wondering where he finds these clients. And yes I am American :) I was just generalizing the majority of my and the other brokers in my branch who ARE bailing no matter how much logic you spew at them but you're right we are very institutional driven (was tired and a tad drunk when I posted that last night).[/quote] Tied one on last night? Bear Stearns employee? I'm kidding of course. After the last few trading days tipping a few was probably a good idea. St. Patty's Day was well timed this year. On your post, what really caught my attention was the nice car comment. I really could care less about the market, but when you when you brought nice cars into it, well... As for going aggressive, different strokes a market make. If we all thought and did the same I guess you and I and a whole bunch of other folks here would be doing something else for a living. Personally, I've always wanted to give Bikini Waxing a try. Ah, I digress. Apologies to the ladies.[quote=anonymous]“In 2001-03 while the experts said stay to course, anyone who did was worth 40% less when the dust settled.”
That's only true if the same experts then told them to get out of the market in 2003. The dust doesn't settle until the investments get sold. [/quote] "Hey, Mr Client, I've got good news and I've got bad news. First the bad news. The life savings you entrusted to me is worth 40% less than when we started. The good news is we need only a 60% gain to recover those loses and get you back to even." Yeah, I see your point.[quote=pratoman]Ashland - I thanks for the kudos, but I’ve been around long enough to know, I got lucky today. I have no intention of pressing my luck. My opinion is tho, that we are way oversold and due for some kind of rally (duh). I think today showed that there is a lot of money coming in at around SPX 1280. The market is trying to find a bottom here, and IF we can hold and move higher frm these levels, it looks like a classic double bottom
Lets hope for a good day tomorrow.[/quote] Good call.Or a relief rally… I’m more concerned this week than I was last week & am going to postpone my next move into stocks w/ clients. I don’t see this lowering mortgage rates & it’s near impossible to qualify for a new loan right now. I don’t think we’re going to see the necessary reductions in housing inventories this summer & may have lower prices that will push back sales further. Not turning bearish… just think we’re in a trading range & think 12,000 may be in the middle of that range.
Technically, it sure does look like a double bottom, though.
Joe has it right. When I took over my book I moved people towards model portfolios & then stepped them 10 - 15% back on stocks each. The argument I used is that there’s an efficient frontier(didn’t use that word), and why wouldn’t they want to be on it? I also explained to them it was easier to manage a portfolio that I was constantly touching for various clients. Essentially, if the market moved south, they would receive better service & have a higher likelihood of maintaining their account balances because I could easily monitor their holdings. Just wish I had a TAMP & discretion for more of my clients.
Now when I call I can tell them I’m adjusting my model for them & they go along with less of a fight. More importantly, they know I have a disciplined process and a specific strategy to manage money. That alone I think has held the scared phone calls down.
Ashland,
I am moving toward a similiar model. As new money comes in, I am putting it into discretionary accounts, on a platform my wirehouse has that allows me to use stocks, bonds, etf's and mutual funds. I am using the firms strategic models, on a macro level, but tweaking them a bit in an attempt to be tactical. I am using some traditional style box MF's, along with go anywhere, lower volatility and/ or absolute return funds like Ivy Asset Strategy, Long/Short funds, Rydex Mgd Futures, etc. I am using these non traditional funds in combination with traditional Large Cap funds as a core. I am realizing the clients I want to work with, are people who can ignore the upside hype, in return for a solid plan to manage volatility (risk).On another note, I heard something amazing tonight. I did a seminar that I ran for the FA's in my branch. I had a guest speaker come in - our firms Fixed Income Strategist. Bright young guy.
Here is a tidbit he offered. Right now, the yield spread is WIDER on U.S. Corporate AAA debt, than it is on the debt of Lithuania, Slovenia, and Croatia. WTF. If that isnt illogical panic/fear, what is.Pratoman - I don’t have the flexibility that you have in your program. I sure wish I did, though. I’m building a long term business through fee-based & UIT’s & expect I’ll hire an associate next year to take more responsibility for day-to-day on commission products and smaller relationships so I can prospect business owners more like a wirehouse broker does. I’ll also be eligible for a full time assistant in 2009. Until then I’ll continue to slog away at it…
Very interesting re the debt. BondGuy, what do you know about that?