Bye, Bye, Bear Stearns?
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Well, this morning’s open should be interesting to say the least. Perhaps this is the event that gives us enough capitulation to bring the last sellers to the market.
[Quote] my call for higher interest rates is grounded in my belief that much of our real economic problems are hinged upon the dollar.
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I agree we need a strong - or at least stronger - currency. This will be taken care of in the next year, though. I strongly believe this is a financial rather than an economic crisis & will be over by year’s end. So, while the drop in the dollar is scary, it will be reversed in short order. Also, it’s highly likely that other countries will move to support the dollar or decrease their rates to stay competitive. I read the ECB & Bank of England’s reluctance to lower rates as an indication that they see this weak dollar as a short term event.
Well, this morning’s open should be interesting to say the least. Perhaps this is the event that gives us enough capitulation to bring the last sellers to the market.
I sure hope it will. Is that going to be at 11,200 or 10,200, though?
Ice, Oh…sorry…7 months experience. I’ve read your posts. You have no clue. A permanent member of this forum…one should be so proud.
Lay it on the table...AUM.....toys......come on...bring it on.[quote=fastcar] Ice, Oh…sorry…7 months experience. I’ve read your posts. You have no clue. A permanent member of this forum…one should be so proud.
Lay it on the table…AUM…toys…come on…bring it on.[/quote]
Are you going to post pictures of your F430 or Shut the FU<K up?
WOW...for a 26year old overweight boy...lots of toys...go ahead and post up all your pictures first!
STFU=Ferris Bueller
more like 1.5mm..as I hear through the grapevine.
Good question, Ice. I think the dollar’s fall has been overdone. The world is pricing in a long-term financial decline that I don’t believe the US is in for.
Please see http://www.metaquotes.net/forex/eurusd
Other examples of mispricing:
Oil prices in the early 1970’s.
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.htm
That spike in the 1970’s was very scary because it was expected to last forever, but it didn’t.
Mortgage rates just this year(I locked in btw!!!)
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/graphs/graph_trend.asp
There’s talk on CNBC World(I’m an insomniac & watch that crap if I can’t sleep) that the Euro is 30% overvalued against the $.
The second reason the dollar will increase is that world sells to the US as it has never before. Other central banks will be put under a great deal of pressure to stabilize the currency by lowering their interest rates.
Both of these arguments have circumstantial evidence at the moment. I think there will be a confirmation of this by the third quarter of this year. Confirmation being a drop in rates at the ECB & Bank of England as well a loosening in the credit markets that will lead to greater US business investment.
Crossing fingers because I’m buying for clients right now while the rest of you are freaking…
ice - I emailed a question into CNBC World this evening in regards to the dollar. The response the two gents gave was that the US has seen significant bear markets in the dollar in the past & this is not beyond the pale. Also, that the current decline in the US dollar is very helpful to trade balances which will be one of the catalysts for us to get out of this mess.
I agree that it’s killing consumers. You suggested that people are filling up their gas tanks & a lot of the folks who are putting their $$ into their V8 trucks are the same who can’t pay their mortgages & cards. Well, of course that’s true. Will we see a realignment in demand this year? Does this mean we sell short automakers & discretionary goods? Maybe. Do we finally see big investments going into alternative energy? 10 - 15 yr solution, but I’d guess that will happen.
An interesting factoid - China has higher fuel standards than the US & the US’s plans to increase CAFE standards is less ambitious than China’s.
I'm no Phd candidate like Ice, but it seems to me that the $ like all markets, is overshooting its mark. Good thought in an earlier post on this thread (don't recall who posted it) that the other central banks will bring their rates down and that should help the USD. Its in their interest to do that, to help the U.S. With all this said, I think it will be a long long time, before we see dollar levels back to what we had been accustomed to until a few years back, simply because we are no longer, and probably wont ever be, THE dominant global economy of the world. We are still a strong player (obviously) but the weak dollar is just a result of us no longer being the be all and end all in the world economy.
As far as the markets to, and Bear Stearns/JPM news, if this isnt leading to the washout we've all been waiting for, I dont know what will. I wouldnt be surprised if we ended the day flat to up. (I'll probably come back here tonight with egg on my face)I would like to make the point tht I was not bragging about anything. One of the forum participents asked me why my log in is fastcar. I just honestly answered the question. And then things were completely blown out of proportion. I apoligize for going off thread.
We have huge financial issues in the country. I cannot answer for icecold, but I own everything outright, have positive net worth and am prepared for this global crisis.[quote=fastcar]I would like to make the point tht I was not bragging about anything. One of the forum participents asked me why my log in is fastcar. I just honestly answered the question. And then things were completely blown out of proportion. I apoligize for going off thread.
We have huge financial issues in the country. I cannot answer for icecold, but I own everything outright, have positive net worth and am prepared for this global crisis. [/quote] Fastcar, you told us you owned a Ferrari. And not just any run of the mill Ferrari, but an F430. Now, personally, when you were asked about your car my money was on you coming back with a Lamborghini Reventon or maybe a Gallardo. Either of which would be much more fitting to your seeing red blood in the streets perspective. Your credibilty here is serverely damaged. Posting a pic would help. On the other hand Ice comes off as very credible and his higher interest rate theory carries some weight. Whether he's right or wrong about that at least he can back it up with some solid reasoning. And by the way, he's right on one point, we're not coming out of this until we get the dollar headed in a different direction. All and all, not bad for a kid who drives a pick up truck and counts wide screen's as toys.I hate these my dck is bigger than your dck posts anyway, but when it devolves to bragging about toys, this board drops to a new level of stupid.
While we're bragging about our spending habits, I've got a 27 incher that is pretty fuzzy for about 5 minutes until it gets warmed up. It's kinda like HD, except with a thin layer of vasaline smeared on the screen. I've also got enough in my checking account to by 4 HD tv's, quite a bit more than that in my "bad month cushion account", invested about 20% of last year's pay between retirement and other accounts, and have a net worth in my mid 30's exceeds that of many of my clients in their 50's. It's not that I can't afford the toys, I just think it's stupid to buy them. Who would you rather have as a client, me or ice?[quote=EDJ4now]I hate these my dck is bigger than your dck posts anyway, but when it devolves to bragging about toys, this board drops to a new level of stupid.
While we're bragging about our spending habits, I've got a 27 incher that is pretty fuzzy for about 5 minutes until it gets warmed up. It's kinda like HD, except with a thin layer of vasaline smeared on the screen. I've also got enough in my checking account to by 4 HD tv's, quite a bit more than that in my "bad month cushion account", invested about 20% of last year's pay between retirement and other accounts, and have a net worth in my mid 30's exceeds that of many of my clients in their 50's. It's not that I can't afford the toys, I just think it's stupid to buy them. Who would you rather have as a client, me or ice?[/quote] Well, hmm, tough one? I'd pick Ice. He's younger and has more earning years ahead. And I could always hit him up to borrow his truck if I need to run down to Home Depot to pick up a new refridgerator or something. And while were loading the truck he could lay some of that MBA karma on me and I might learn a thing or two. Seriously, I didn't take Ice's post as a brag. Nor do I look at him as a spendthrift, which is how you're trying to paint him. Most of us have at least the bare essentials, house, car/truck/ furniture. As for Widescreens, not really toys. They are the only real option today when buying televisions. That said, I do think he responded unnecessarily with that post. As for posting toys etc, Ok. This is a tough biz and toys are one form of reward. It pains me that so many find some of the toys posted ridiculous. Ok, you come on here as a 20 something claiming to own a Ferrari, even while possible, you deserve to get shot down. On the other hand ice claimed a Tundra, so why shoot that down? I'm the king of toys. My wife calls our garage " Bondguy's toy chest." and that doesn't count all the crap I've bought and sold over the years. I've blown a lot of money over the years and in hindsight I wouldn't mind having most of that dough back. But it is up to you how you spend your paycheck. Waste it or invest it. But what ever you do enjoy it. I tell you that to tell you this, nobody cares. Outside of a few close friends and your family, nobody cares. Got a Tundra, nobody cares. Got an F430, nobody cares. Got a Rambow Pool Cue, nobody cares. Nobody cares what "stuff" you've got. That doesn't mean don't buy it. Only that you should buy it to enjoy it, not to inventory it. Having an inventory of "stuff" is a poor measure of a life well lived. Lastly, there is a price for owning all this "stuff." Boats, a popular waste of money, for example, come with seasonal bills for docking and storage. There is annual maintenance. The total bill just to show up at the dock is between $100 and $125 a foot. That doesn't count the direct operating cost of the boat or the fact that you're getting crushed on depreciation. And then, if you financed it, there is the note. Want a hot car? Get ready to pony up big time for the annual service bills. Some exotics could easily come with $3000 oil change bills attached. Wanna do some grass roots racing, with cheapie Dodge Neon or something, could top 5k a year to race. How about racing sail boats? That's gotta be cheaper right? Wrong! Even something small, like a J 22 will cost over 10K a year to campaign. Up that to a J35 and you're looking easily looking at over 15k. Rip a chute and write a check for 7k before the next race. Ok, you're stayin on dry land and decide to become a member of the Ironbutt Association. The good news is it's really cheap to join, under $100 bucks. The bad news is the only way in is to ride a motorcycle 1000 miles in 24 hours. If you're serious about advancing within the associaton, not counting the 15 to 25k cost of the bike, the additonal 6 or 7k in gear you'll need, it will cost you at least 4 or 5k a year to run a few rallies and do a few IBA rides. That doesn't count the massive depreciation that putting 25k to 100k miles on that bike every year will do. Of course sleepling at the Iron Butt motel will help cut down on costs. Still, there are plenty of ways to blow your money. And there is nothing wrong with blowing it on any of these things. Look before you leap and like I said, enjoy it. Because nobody cares.Leaving my Kawasaki Vulcan aside and getting mostly back on topic, are there any bears here that are completely out of US equities?
[quote=Indyone]Leaving my Kawasaki Vulcan aside and getting mostly back on topic, are there any bears here that are completely out of US equities?[/quote]
Think we need a(nother) motorcycle thread.
I stopped short of calling BS on the 15-25k required for the IronButt, I know some morons have tried it on souped-up mopeds and 20 yr.-old 'Wings.
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Think we need a(nother) motorcycle thread.
I stopped short of calling BS on the 15-25k required for the IronButt, I know some morons have tried it on souped-up mopeds and 20 yr.-old 'Wings.
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I wouldnt be surprised if we ended the day flat to up. (I’ll probably come back here tonight with egg on my face)
SOOO... What's going to happen tomorrow, Pratoman? Nice call!