Bottom Yet?
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Ice,
That was a great movie. I will agree with the fact that the world with have to become less ans less dependant on oil in the near future, as the economic metrics of supply and demand will dictate that. But as far as oil becoming less relevant..oil is not just an energy source..look around you, nearly everything you see is manufactured using oil, as is food and pharmaceuticals. We are in the oil age, and its shortage, I feel, will be and has been the MOST relevant to our economy and lifestyle. ie: if we still had $15 bbl oil of a few years ago..the current financial/credit crisis may have been averted.This thread truely amazes me. B7 bringing down the quality of this forum? He may be bringing down the optimism of the forum…but he’s been nailing it on the head with alot of what he has said. Ben and the feds are FAR more waco then GEAB. The greed driven economy has been paralyzed by FEAR.
This thing is never going to bottom. Don’t you know that every time the market goes up it goes back down. This has happened again and again. Up, down, up, down, up . . .
[quote=Broker7]
Hey...its just "past performance".....now READ and look at #4.....sounds alot like today.
[/quote][quote=Broker7]
Hey...its just "past performance".....now READ and look at #4.....sounds alot like today.
[/quote] I'll add to my previous post. I see nothing in this quote that relates to today. Same goes for the rest of the quotes. To list these quotes makes these men sound laughable. Yet, as we read these quotes we are taking them out of the context of the times. Considering how good the Twenties were, it would be hard to be anything but an optimist. That said, let's look at the similarities between then and now: In the eight years prior to the crash of 1929 the stock market was up 600%. Ok, ya got me, it was only up 597%. You know, just like today. The Fed lowered interest rates in 1925 and kept them low to support the British pound. They did this to help England support the Gold Standard. The pound was the World commerce denomination of choice so supporting it made perfect sense. Again, just like today. The low interest rates depressed the dollar leading to a boom in exports, just like what we have right now. Margin requirements were only 10% fueling nearly unbridled speculation, just like today. The Fed tightened credit causing massive banking failures. The banking failures in turned reduced the money supply not only wiping out the life savings of depositors but also the deposits of businesses, thus crippling the economy. Just like now. The economies of the major super powers of the day, U.S., France, Germany. U.K., deflated 29% in 1929 alone, just like today. The government, in an effort to boost the economy enacted a 50% tariff. Yep, we've got that goin on. Our major trading partners reacted in kind to our tariff with tariffs of their own thus shutting down world commerce. Nobody was trading with anybody. Just like today. Because nothing else had worked to pull us out of the depression, the government believed that people were stuffing their mattresses with cash and not spending it. This was in fact the case. Money being saved was a problem in that it did nothing to help the economy. So leave it to your freindly neighborhood congressman to solve the problem by raising taxes from 25% to a wopping 63%. If you wouldn't spend your money the government would take it from you and spend it for you. The government reasoned that lower taxes hadn't worked. of course taking money out the economy doesn't work! This is exactly like today. Enough! The depression was not caused by the stock market crash of 1929. The market was a symptom, not the disease. Unbridled growth of the twenties, the repressive reactionary monetary policy combined with ill timed tax increases, mixed with a rise in world protectionism all came together to cause the depression. That's not to say that what's going on today isn't serious business, because it is. Our leaders got it wrong in 1929 and that led to a decade of misery. Are our leaders today any smarter? Will they get it right? I believe they are. Yet, only time will tell.BondGuy - what you forgot to add to your post was - things are cheap, go shopping!
Houses are cheap, stocks are cheap, and the dollar is very cheap right now. I feel those things will generally continue to get significantly cheaper. Just be very picky on the things you go shopping for. Work that swing trade...play both sides.
B7, you’ve made it painfully obvious to all on this forum that you are a wrong way bettor who holds optimist in low regard. Of course whether today’s optimist statements turn out to just that, or fact, only the future will tell. And while I hold out that the future is unknowable and anything is possible, I hang my hat and my financial well being on the fact that market bottomed in 1932 at 40 and despite everything our world has thrown at it since, has increased 30,000% to its current level.
B7, of course you are welcomed to express your opinions here. Makes for some interesting debate. It also acts as a reality check in that the downside is very real and very possible. And of course there is a lot of money to be made on the short side. An arena I gravitate to myself occasionally. Yet, that said, some freindly advice; for your continued good health whatever else you may do, don't take your wrong way bettor mentality to a craps table in AC. You might make it a few steps outside the casino before you realize your mistake. And we wouldn't want to see anything happen to our favorite short.I still remember Bill Gross predicting Dow 5,000 when it was in the sevens…just before it took off. That tells me that people a lot smarter than any of us can’t predict the short-term direction of the market. Long-term is much easier, and that’s the arena I stake my professional reputation to. I likewise enjoy poking fun at the folks on the short side of the fence who are likely sitting with a smug grin on their faces at the moment. Inevitably, this false sense of security gets a reality check when the market is 30% higher and bears are still sitting in TIPS and commodities…and on the wrong side of short trades and futures contracts. Given the history of the market, and the extreme pessimism of the moment, I like my chances staying (mostly) long.
You are right indyone, long term is much easier this time…just take a look at the global economy…easy to make an educated decision based on that.
I wouldn't call B7 the gambler....Lmfao!!..you buy and hold equities guys are blowing up right now....I just read his commodities thread from nov 07..he nailed that one while most of us were laughing at him. I find his opinions to be well in sync with what is going on with the economy. "Wrong way bettor"...come on...if you are long the market...you are the wrong way bettor....nothing to do with optimism here....just the reality of the situation. Time to vent....SAD but TRUE: For a realtor..it is always the right time to buy a house. For an investment salesman..it is always the right time to buy. Stop being a saleman and try to understand what is going on...that is what you are paid for.Sorry man, never said you used fundamentals in your advisement, just guessed you are a permabull by your retorts, we are all entitled to our own opinion, no mater how positive or negative…right? My other post about the dollar index…not on this forum…just telling F. Bueller to shut the hell up with his retarded comments. It was sometime in 2003 after the index sank under 100. I made a note to watch the dollar. At that time, I guessd the war would destroy the dollar. Cant believe it has been nearly 5 years, since I personally called SCAM on the financial system. Ask the question to a fellow broker about the dollar index…and what are its effects…7 out of ten will have NO CLUE…that is some sad crazy crap.
[quote=fastcar]You are right indyone, long term is much easier this time…just take a look at the global economy…easy to make an educated decision based on that.
I wouldn't call B7 the gambler....Lmfao!!..you buy and hold equities guys are blowing up right now....I just read his commodities thread from nov 07..he nailed that one while most of us were laughing at him. I find his opinions to be well in sync with what is going on with the economy. "Wrong way bettor"...come on...if you are long the market...you are the wrong way bettor....nothing to do with optimism here....just the reality of the situation. Time to vent....SAD but TRUE: For a realtor..it is always the right time to buy a house. For an investment salesman..it is always the right time to buy. Stop being a saleman and try to understand what is going on...that is what you are paid for. [/quote] Fastcar- Couple questions here: You are B7? Are you an advisor or just a short who has found his way onto the forum? I ask because you come off as someone who isn't an advisor. That you use and reuse the term investment salesman is a tell. That you use it derisively is also a tell. Your thinking is short term-tell. "Buy and hold equity guys"- tell. "Stop being a salesaman and try to understand what's going on"- not only a tell, but disingenuous as well. That you don't include youself as an "investment salesman", not even one who's strategy is to short the market, which, by the way, would still be an investment, tells me you're not an advisor. It's also obvious that you have no idea what a wrong way bettor is. But here's a clue to what it's not; it's not someone who invests against a trend. Which means, those who are long the market, with market in a down trend, are not wrong way bettors. I'll leave it to you to seach the net for the answer. So, you aren't an advisor, and you don't understand some basic terms. My question: why are you here?LMFAO…Are you kidding? Of course I’m an advisor. SERIES 7 2000…you??
77mm AUM....you? Let me call you out..are you really a bond guy? I think alot like Broker7, from what I've read. He/she is more of an optimist than I am...I see a fast crash. Just differentiating myself from the sheep (YOU), by letting my clients know i'm not a saleman.....try it..it definitely works. Next time PM me if you are going to talk trash.[quote=fastcar]LMFAO…Are you kidding? Of course I’m an advisor. SERIES 7 2000…you??
77mm AUM....you? Let me call you out..are you really a bond guy? I think alot like Broker7, from what I've read. He/she is more of an optimist than I am...I see a fast crash. Just differentiating myself from the sheep (YOU), by letting my clients know i'm not a saleman.....try it..it definitely works. Next time PM me if you are going to talk trash.[/quote] Ah, your the guy who doesn't know what a wrong way bettor is, right? Or was the other guy? And english is a second language for you, right? I do have a serious question: what's the meaning of fastcar? You're a NASCAR fan? 77mm in assets? All riding on the Don't Pass Line. (look it up) Hey, don't be offended, I kid with you. It's obvious that you are not a salesman. you are so smart and drive such superior transportation that people, that is rich people, just throw their money at you. You don't have to sell, you need only show up. Cool! As for me, well, I'm stuck here driving the 94 Estate Wagon, and I cower in your presence. And all I really have to say is "Baa."[quote=BondGuy
Hey, don't be offended, I kid with you. It's obvious that you are not a salesman. you are so smart and drive such superior transportation that people, that is rich people, just throw their money at you. You don't have to sell, you need only show up. Cool! As for me, well, I'm stuck here driving the 94 Estate Wagon, and I cower in your presence. And all I really have to say is "Baa." [/quote] Brag, brag, brag...Well?? How long have U been in the industry? How much AUM?? No answer. Are you really a broker? By the way english is my second language , and fastcar is my F430. It does command alot of attention…a conversation piece for the high net worth…
Ahh, the F430! That's the one with the engine derived from a shared design, right? Ferrari shared the engine design with , who was that? It's right on the tip of my tongue? Sorry, can't come up with it, care to help me out? And I have to admit, the Buick doesn't have the way cool Manettino Dials that you get to play with. But, then again you can't get a 4X8 sheet of plywood in the back seat like I can. So I guess it all evens out. By the way, on the english is a second language thing; you didn't have to answer, we already knew. Where did I say I was an advisor? I'd answer the AUM question, if I knew what AUM was? Or is it what AUM is? Mind if I call you Wrong Way?Well?? How long have U been in the industry? How much AUM?? No answer. Are you really a broker? By the way english is my second language , and fastcar is my F430. It does command alot of attention…a conversation piece for the high net worth…