Where will be at end of next week?
7500 ?
I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I’m not telling my clients that, but that’s my prediction. Knowing my past history, that’s probably way off…
My client, who has a remarkable history for being right about the markets, told me today that he expects to see the Dow at 4800 before this is all over.
[quote=now_indy]I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I thought your crystal ball was broken. I’m not telling my clients that, but that’s my prediction. Knowing my past history, that’s probably way off…Oh, that makes it all better. Also explains your other posts. Don’t mistake your missteps with the way I do business. [QUOTE]
Great, now you've jinxed it. Hasn't anyone told you that when you call the bottom there's some special force that resets it again. Ask Kramer. He knows all about it.I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I’m not telling my clients that, but that’s my prediction. Knowing my past history, that’s probably way off…
[quote=Sam Houston][quote=now_indy]I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I thought your crystal ball was broken. I’m not telling my clients that, but that’s my prediction. Knowing my past history, that’s probably way off…Oh, that makes it all better. Also explains your other posts. Don’t mistake your missteps with the way I do business. [QUOTE]
[/quote] Sam, my crystal ball is broken. That was not a statement of fact, that was a GUESS by me. It's just that I'm willing to call it what it is, a guess. You make guesses, and attribute it to some ability to know when to get in and out of the markets. If I go with a client to a casino, and he asks me if he should put his IRA into a slot machine, and I say "no," but he does it anyway, and hits a massive jackpot, was I wrong? No, I wasn't wrong, he just guessed right. That is not repeatable, in the same way that your "get out when the market is going down, get back in when it goes up" strategy is not repeatable.You keep telling yourself that I guess or predict or time or whatever you need to sleep at night.
s and p earnings were 35 bucks in 1996.
peak earnings were about 95 in 2007
take us to 50?40?35?
think about it.
that will discount
population growth
productivity growth
tech growth and
the ENTIRE MF global economy since 96
be very very greedy when everyone is fearful
RISK is so on sale.
I predict that by the end of next week we will be at March 13, and further, I will be at the GatorNationals.
dow somewhere between 5900-8900… give or take a couple of points.
0
todays close will be dramatic
selling pressure more and more relentlus. People are concerned about survival
Had two clients liquidate this week. I’ve talked them out of it in the past, but now they’re just transferring out.
I could be wrong...I think that yesterday may have been the bottom. I’m not telling my clients that, but that’s my prediction. Knowing my past history, that’s probably way off…
haha, I’ll say, I was thinking about your original post when I checked the market last.
todays close will be dramatic
down over 4%. (down 280 used to be down 560 in 07)
tomorrow jobs report will be worst than expected (over 8% unemployment)
market will be relieved to get that report out of the way
How’d the market finished today? I was too busy curled up in a fetal position under my desk to look up and see!
The 8 talking heads on MSNBC all gave differing opinions. So I did a weighted average analysis on the square root of the sum of their predictions, multiplied by the number of months we’ve been in recession, divided by the number of jobs lost in the past six months, less the number of jobs expected to be lost next month, multiplied by the VIX then divided by pi since I needed some sort of mathematical greek number in here so I could justify the result to my clients, and came up with the answer. I’m waiting for the network to invite me on so I can announce it to the world.
MSNBC is has political shows, do you mean CNBC?
damn, now I have to recalculate everything…
Boys and Girls, welcome to the Great Depression. What is getting ZERO play is what happens when both Soverign banks unwind US treasuries to cover loan loss provisions. Countries will be faced with either liquidating assets are creating inflation by printing money. The first thing to go will be assets. As this mess unwinds the fall boy will be the US economy. The market is in a free fall and at this level 5800-6000 is the next stop. If we fail to hold that level can you say welcome to Dow 3500?
Ive been in the business 15 years and it is VERY likely that the Dow will bottom where it was when I started in this business.... I want to cry[quote=BukiRob]Boys and Girls, welcome to the Great Depression. What is getting ZERO play is what happens when both Soverign banks unwind US treasuries to cover loan loss provisions. Countries will be faced with either liquidating assets are creating inflation by printing money. The first thing to go will be assets. As this mess unwinds the fall boy will be the US economy. The market is in a free fall and at this level 5800-6000 is the next stop. If we fail to hold that level can you say welcome to Dow 3500?
Ive been in the business 15 years and it is VERY likely that the Dow will bottom where it was when I started in this business.... I want to cry[/quote] Stocks are just pieces of paper..if the dividends are not real or being cut that paper is near worthless at times. If M&A appears that can change the game, but do not see that now for awhile. You can sit back and wait for the BK's to come up and cherry pick from there, why pay retail even when credit comes back. Looking at 100's of big names; AA, IP, WHR, DOW, GE, etc etc they are back to the early 90's. Anyone who thinks 3500 DOW is not on the table down the road is nuts. Next shoe to fall is insurance company goes belly up and and people scramble to see if they get .15 cents on the dollar on their annuities.I have been in the business 20 years and I predict that no matter how high Obama raises the capital gains tax rate, every thing I own will still be at a loss and I will pay no taxes if I sell.
Next shoe to fall is insurance company goes belly up and and people
scramble to see if they get .15 cents on the dollar on their annuities.
*************************************************
That’ll be then end of the biz for many. Some FA’s would have a ton of charge backs if people start surrendering annuities done less than 12 months (I guess this depends what firm you work for)
if all hell broke loose, (fdic becomes insolvent) which is safer:
CD from a bank that may fail or a money market mutual fund only invested in treasuries?
If FDIC becomes insolvent, it doesn’t matter any more. The game would, in fact, be over.
What about the state guaranty funds for fixed annuities?
treasuries should be the last thing standing outside of actual goods, right?
based on this thread, we should begin looking for mushroom clouds…
FDIC can borrow from the Treasury. Sheila Bair is trying to tax the banks to sure up the FDIC funds but she doesn’t need to. I would be pissed if I was a small community bank doing all the right things, only to pay the price for BAC/WB’s mistakes.
[quote=josephjones107] todays close will be dramatic
down over 4%. (down 280 used to be down 560 in 07)
tomorrow jobs report will be worst than expected (over 8% unemployment)
market will be relieved to get that report out of the way[/quote]
jobs report alot worse than expected but market up over 2%, this keeps happening each month. It's as if the market just likes getting it out of the way.
mini rally starting. Dow close to 7500 by end of next week
Wishful thinking[quote=josephjones107] [quote=josephjones107] todays close will be dramatic[/quote]
down over 4%. (down 280 used to be down 560 in 07)
tomorrow jobs report will be worst than expected (over 8% unemployment)
market will be relieved to get that report out of the way[/quote]
jobs report alot worse than expected but market up over 2%, this keeps happening each month. It’s as if the market just likes getting it out of the way.
mini rally starting. Dow close to 7500 by end of next week
Ice, I didn’t know you owned an Adult DVD / Bookstore.
My mind must be in the gutter with Mike D. because that’s what I was thinking also. Then I remembered Valentine’s Day being in Feb. and figured sales would be high leading up to it. That and with the downturn in the market aren’t we all turning to items that make us feel better. Sin Stocks!
Ice,
R U the Lovesack guy? Those things are awesome!beware of easy money
late 90s easy money were tech stocks
2002-2006 easy money was flipping houses
2008-? easy money is shorting stocks
That’s interesting Ice. I have clients who own a large dive/ski/travel retail store, and they told me that January sales were great, which I also thought was weird. Obviously, no one NEEDS diving or ski (water and snow) equipment. I took it as a positive sign.
60% of people still have jobs, so they will go out and buy stuff
Agreed. Thanks for sharing now_indy. Good to know that if it's a fluke, there are other small businesses out there experiencing the same "fluke." [/quote][quote=now_indy]That’s interesting Ice. I have clients who own a large dive/ski/travel retail store, and they told me that January sales were great, which I also thought was weird. Obviously, no one NEEDS diving or ski (water and snow) equipment. I took it as a positive sign.
FWIW Valentine's weekend I was at Disneyworld with the wife and kids. Yeah the cabbies and some of the employees were complaining that business had been slow, but on Saturday night you couldn't get a reservation at ANY decent restaurant. The parks were packed during the day on Saturday with long wait times for the rides.
Now I am in Park City, UT on a guys ski trip that we do every year. There are more condos and rental homes with "FOR LEASE" or "FOR SALE" signs than usual, but the slopes are not empty by any means, nor the restaurants at night.
Whatever the press and the statistics may be telling you, there are plenty of folks out there spending money eagerly trying to combat the stress they've felt over this past year.
I'm starting to think that at this stage the financial markets may be reflecting a far more pessimistic environment than what is reflected in the 'real world'. Just my 2 cents.
Hyman:
WTF are you checking this board for if you are right now on the slopes. Take a break and enjoy the skiing and the bunnies. I'll be in Beaver Creek next week myself. ENJOY!lol…my buddies are skiers and this morning they went to "ski only " Deer Valley. I only snowboard.
I also had a couple of ‘must do’ items for work. I guess that’s one of those times where being indy is a bit of a drawback. So I’m going to do a half-day at Park City Mtn Resort today…the lift is about 500 yards away.
[quote=jkl1v1n6]Hyman:
[quote=HymanRoth] lol…my buddies are skiers and this morning they went to "ski only " Deer Valley. I only snowboard.
I also had a couple of ‘must do’ items for work. I guess that’s one of those times where being indy is a bit of a drawback. So I’m going to do a half-day at Park City Mtn Resort today…the lift is about 500 yards away.
[quote=jkl1v1n6]Hyman:
I would be pissed if I was a Financial Advisor working for a firm doing all the right things and was paying a price for BAC/WB/C/UBS/MS mistakes........Wait! I am.FDIC can borrow from the Treasury. Sheila Bair is trying to tax the banks to sure up the FDIC funds but she doesn’t need to. I would be pissed if I was a small community bank doing all the right things, only to pay the price for BAC/WB’s mistakes.
Market clearly wanted to rally Friday…and, even with, awful revisions to last month’s numbers still finished higher…
We should go higher this week, maybe into Thursday, when Congress looks into what they can do to deal with mark to market pricing…
I like your 7500 call…
[quote=SFEZ] Market clearly wanted to rally Friday…and, even with, awful revisions to last month’s numbers still finished higher…We should go higher this week, maybe into Thursday, when Congress looks into what they can do to deal with mark to market pricing… I like your 7500 call…
[/quote]
Why should the markets go higher? What kind of good news do you expect to see? Are earnings, and consequently P/E ratios improving? If you’re looking to the legislature to move the markets, you clearly don’t understand the system.
Capitol Hill taking up Mark-to-market issue next week- I predict relief for the banks …I believe we are setting up for a bear market " mini-rally" to low to mid 8000’s…not next week, but next couple of months.
Now, i need to go to the liquor store and pick up more Patron, I finished it off this week! "The taxpayer: That's someone who works for the federal government but doesn't have to take the civil service examination."- Ronald ReaganI know we have to be getting close to a bottom. A client called yesterday(educated women, retired HS Principal) in the AM and wanted to take all her money(550k) out of her account and convert it all to silver and gold coins and keep it in her house. She thinks the Gov’t is going to collapse…I told her to make sure she also purchased a shotgun because if it did fail I’d be coming for that Gold. You can’t make this stuff up.
Hell, she may have the right idea. Thank goodness my in-laws have a jewelry store and we have gold and silver out the wazoo.
CNN yesterday (or was it CNBC, dont remember), was talking about the large increase in sales of guns across the country, and relating it to the economic crisis.
What a bunch of horsesh*t, do they actually thing they are doing the public a service with this kind of reporting?
Guns and safes…the 2 best selling items right now across the U.S. Good sign of capitulation.
Where will we be at the end of next week? One week closer to midterm elections which is something like 19 months away. Can't come soon enough.I know we have to be getting close to a bottom. A client called yesterday(educated women, retired HS Principal) in the AM and wanted to take all her money(550k) out of her account and convert it all to silver and gold coins and keep it in her house. She thinks the Gov’t is going to collapse…I told her to make sure she also purchased a shotgun because if it did fail I’d be coming for that Gold. You can’t make this stuff up.
How do you know that we have to be getting close to a bottom? Perhaps you shouldn't rely upon anecdotal evidence from retired school administrators.
[quote=Philo Kvetch] [quote=SFEZ] Market clearly wanted to rally Friday…and, even with, awful revisions to last month’s numbers still finished higher…We should go higher this week, maybe into Thursday, when Congress looks into what they can do to deal with mark to market pricing… I like your 7500 call…
[/quote]
Why should the markets go higher? What kind of good news do you expect to see? Are earnings, and consequently P/E ratios improving? If you’re looking to the legislature to move the markets, you clearly don’t understand the system.[/quote]
I expect to see rumors that Congress will consider temporarily eliminating mark-to-market…Even if this turns out to be BS, it could rally the markets short term…
The question was where the market could end up this Friday…not at year end…
And…in reality, some of the fear of where they (government/Congress) are heading and the lack of clarity are moving the markets (downward), so if you think governmental policy and the legislature have nothing to do with the markets, I disagree…and would be surprised if you really think the legislature has nothing to do with moving the markets.
How do you know that we have to be getting close to a bottom? Perhaps you shouldn’t rely upon anecdotal evidence from retired school administrators.[/quote]
Your screenname alone is enough to keep it light!
No offense - just kidding, er…just trying to keep it light.
But believe it or not, i actually thought the same thing to myself yesterday at the close - think about it - what more can they do to us that hasnt already been done!? BRING IT ON.
Cramer already called it. Dow 5320!! Whew, I have been waiting on that. Finally a bottom. I am slinging limit orders like a MF monday morning. Thanks Cramer!!! You have saved us all!
He is so bad its amazing, only thing I wonder with him is how much money he has made off that show from the CEO's coming on there and pumping their BK companies as "strong as oak" just weeks before the lights go out. Do think 1/2 the DOW stocks are pretty much worthless as he does in his summary, but the good news if we do go to 5000 or so, Cramer will be off the airCramer already called it. Dow 5320!! Whew, I have been waiting on that. Finally a bottom. I am slinging limit orders like a MF monday morning. Thanks Cramer!!! You have saved us all!
[quote=BukiRob] Boys and Girls, welcome to the Great Depression. What is getting ZERO play is what happens when both Soverign banks unwind US treasuries to cover loan loss provisions. Countries will be faced with either liquidating assets are creating inflation by printing money. The first thing to go will be assets. As this mess unwinds the fall boy will be the US economy. The market is in a free fall and at this level 5800-6000 is the next stop. If we fail to hold that level can you say welcome to Dow 3500?
Ive been in the business 15 years and it is VERY likely that the Dow will bottom where it was when I started in this business…
I want to cry[/quote]
How’s that workin for ya?
[quote=etj4588] My client, who has a remarkable history for being right about the markets, told me today that he expects to see the Dow at 4800 before this is all over.
[/quote]
Remarkable.
[quote=Cowboy93] [quote=etj4588] My client, who has a remarkable history for being right about the markets, told me today that he expects to see the Dow at 4800 before this is all over.
[/quote]
Remarkable.[/quote]
let us know what else this client is saying so we can do the opposite
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