GMO's quarterly letter
Worth a read:
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_4Q09.pdf
If you read Grantham this quarter, you’ll want to kill yourself.
blah blah blah read bi-polar boy Granhtham's past articles. 75,82,90,02......any MF date you pick ....(yes, he did get"bullish" for 28 minutes in march of 2009) ...he is negative. he is always negative. he is always afraid of something. guess what. he is full of crap. Dude needs prozac. "stocks go up over time" i will be right. population grows. humans create. technogy advances, earnings grow. brics. we are entering a time of assets returns way above the mean. (ps: GMO is an awesome asset manager. they dont run money based on whiny boy's outlook. they have been spot on with emg market equity and debt). hold your cash. short yoru stocks girly men. jeremy can kiss my bullish a*s jeremys calling. bet Eddie is a bullWorth a read:
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_4Q09.pdf
Shania, sometimes it’s worth reading the views of someone with a 180 degree view of your own. Particularly someone as smart as Grantham. You don’t have to agree with him, but it’s useful to understand what the bears are thinking. That way you can either dismiss it or realize that there may be something to it. I love reading what the other side is thinking (regardless whether I’m bullish or bearish). It helps keep me sharp and challenges my thesis. By only exposing yourself to opinions that reinforce your views, you’re entering into an echo chamber and that can be dangerous.
[quote=NYCTrader] Shania, sometimes it’s worth reading the views of someone with a 180 degree view of your own. Particularly someone as smart as Grantham. You don’t have to agree with him, but it’s useful to understand what the bears are thinking. That way you can either dismiss it or realize that there may be something to it. I love reading what the other side is thinking (regardless whether I’m bullish or bearish). It helps keep me sharp and challenges my thesis. By only exposing yourself to opinions that reinforce your views, you’re entering into an echo chamber and that can be dangerous.
[/quote]
echo chamber? My wife calls it something else.
Grantham is a brilliant man. I have a great deal of respect for him. His bubble call in 1999 was spot on and he had the stones to stay bearish on his bubble everywhere call all through rally from spx 700ish in 2002 to 2007 highs. I really made fun of him then. I wish i would have listened to him (both) times.
stocks go up over time
cover and reverse long now
i do have a hero named jeremy. It’s jeremy Siegal
1070. all you bears get.
new highs
Volume sucked yesterday and today, Shania. This rally is done. I’m with El Erian. Without jobs, everything else is moot.
Watch China closely. Like '07, things will likely get ugly there first.
On a side note, PIMCO manages $1 trillion. Wow.
<span style=“display: inline;” =“news_story_title”>
El-Erian Says Retreat in Stocks Will Worsen as Economy Slumps
<p> Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- <a href="http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Mohamed+A.+El-Erian&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1" target="_blank">Mohamed A. El-Erian</a>, whose firm runs
the world’s biggest mutual fund, said the largest stock market
decline in 11 months may worsen amid persistent U.S. joblessness
and economic growth that trails analysts’ forecasts.
Investors have wrongly priced in an “orderly” withdrawal of
stimulus measures, a rebound in bank lending and coordinated
government policy to restore growth, the chief executive officer
of Pacific Investment Management Co. wrote in a Bloomberg News
column. That means Wall Street projections for gains in 2010 may
prove incorrect and prices will slump, he said.
“Investors may well find that January’s global equity
sell-off was just a precursor to a disappointing year for
several asset classes,” El-Erian, 51, wrote. “The global
financial crisis has undermined growth and job creation; it has
clogged many of the pipes that allocate funds to productive
uses; and it has rapidly taken public debt and the budget
deficit to worrisome levels.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 3.7 percent in
January, more than any month since February 2009, after China
set higher reserves for lenders and U.S. President Barack Obama
proposed curbs on risk taking at banks. The retreat pared the
S&P 500’s gain since sinking to a 12-year low in March to 59
percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 5.7 percent last
month, also the biggest decrease since February.
‘Sugar High’
The benchmark index for U.S. equities traded for more than
24 times annual income at the end of 2009, the most since 2002,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ratio slipped to
19 times profits as 77 percent of S&P 500 companies earned more
in the fourth quarter than analysts predicted.
“Judging from market valuations, I sense quite a gap
between consensus market expectations and key political and
economic realities, especially in the U.S.,” he wrote.
El-Erian, whose firm manages $1 trillion from Newport
Beach, California, said in a July 29 interview on CNBC that the
rally in U.S. equities was a “sugar high” that wouldn’t be
sustained by economic growth. The S&P 500 has climbed 13 percent
since then. On Oct. 10, 2008, he said the “point of exhaustion”
for the credit crisis was “far away.” The S&P 500 decreased 25
percent through March 9, falling in four of five months.
The 13 Wall Street strategists tracked by Bloomberg News
project that the S&P 500 will rise 10 percent in 2010, according
to the average estimate. The average year-end forecast of 1,232
represents an advance of 12 percent from yesterday’s close of
1,103.32.
New Normal
Pimco’s Bill Gross and El-Erian say investors should expect
returns that trail the historical average because of more
government regulation, lower consumption and a smaller role for
the U.S. in the global economy. American gross domestic product
may expand 2.7 percent in 2010 and 2.9 percent in 2011 as demand
recovers from the first global recession since World War II,
based on the median economist forecast from a Bloomberg survey.
U.S. equities returned 6 percent a year on average since
1900, according to inflation-adjusted data compiled by the
London Business School and Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group AG
in a February 2009 report.
The U.S. government’s budget deficit in the fiscal year
that ended Sept. 30 was a record $1.42 trillion. El-Erian wrote
that too many market participants assume the U.S. will pass
“pro-growth medium-term fiscal adjustment programs” and that the
integrity of public institutions will be maintained.
“A more realistic assessment of these factors would caution
against an excessive focus on changes in growth rates at a time
when absolute levels are horribly out of whack,” he wrote. “The
longer this is delayed, the greater the scope for policy mishaps
and market disappointments.”
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive of top bond fund manager PIMCO, on Tuesday said the rally in U.S. stocks had topped out because valuations have shot up too quickly.
Hot Stocks | China
Asked if U.S. stocks have hit a wall, El-Erian told Reuters Television: "I think we have, and I think what you are seeing is a massive tug of war going on."
World stock markets fell Monday, with the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI declining 2 percent and China's Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC falling 5.8 percent, shaking off recent optimism amid doubts about the sustainability of a solid economic recovery.
"On the one hand, pushing stocks higher are powerful technicals, the fact that very low yields on the front end have pushed cash out of the money market segment and into the risk assets," El-Erian said. "But on the other hand, the fundamentals are such that valuations are ahead of fundamentals. What you have seen over the last couple of days is a recognition that fundamentals matter."
The global equities rally has been tempered by surprisingly weak economic data. On Tuesday, data showed U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fell in July, while the inventory of total houses under construction fell to a record low. Last week the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed a growing number of Americans were increasingly worried over jobs and wages.
El-Erian, who oversees $850 billion in assets for Pacific Investment Management Co, including equities, said U.S. stock markets have been on a "sugar high" as recent corporate earnings have surpassed expectations. But for the most part profitability has been driven by cutbacks in layoffs and capital spending, he said.
Moreover, the nascent economic recovery in the United States faces massive headwinds, including high unemployment, which translates into a vulnerable consumer, and weak private demand.
PIMCO has reduced risk in its portfolio as the rally has "gone too far," El-Erian said, adding the firm has been a net seller of mortgage debt over the past few weeks.
El-Erian said PIMCO participated in last week's 30-year Treasury bond auction.
It’s all about jobs, Shania. That’s what the market needs to see in order for the rally to continue. The jobs aren’t there. This correction is for real.
blah blah blah
you bears getting so excited. perfect chanos on this am. fat ass whitney and doctor death will be seen soon. buy the pi## out of leaders coming in here keep shorting you bear. load up Chanos is one ugly mofo forgot mel. he will start jerrking off soon raining..........................acats.......................................suckosssssssssssssssssssssssssThe famed short-seller Jim Chanos has been making waves lately by saying he thinks China is in a bubble and ready to collapse in 2010. He argues that easy credit has let real estate and stock market prices shoot upward. He also says the Chinese government is cooking the numbers to show 8% growth in gross domestic products, when actually China can't keep growing when the rest of the world has been hit so hard by the financial crisis.
Chanos called it right on Enron and Tyco ( TYC - news - people ) before they collapsed. He is no lightweight observer of the economic scene. However, he is wrong about China. For once I agree with the famed investor Jim Rogers, who cofounded the Quantum Fund with George Soros. He says China is not in a bubble and adds that he finds "it interesting that people who couldn't spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China."
.com/ds/badge.js" ____yb="1" badgetype="text" showbranding="0">forbes:http://www.forbes.com/2010/01/11/china-bubble-chanos-leadership-managing-rein.html?partner=yahoobuzz Yahoo! BuzzBetting against China in 2010 is a bad mistake for investors and companies alike. Here are three reasons why Chanos is wrong and Rogers is right about the strength of China's economy:
Chanos' first error is his belief that China's real estate sector soared in 2009 because of speculation triggered by a loosening of credit by China's banks. Lending in China doubled to $1.35 trillion in the first 11 months of 2009. Real estate prices rose sharply throughout the country and almost doubled in cities like Shenzhen. Chanos calls that a bubble--"Dubai times 1,000--or worse"--that could lead to fallout like the subprime mortgage mess in the U.S.
There are, however, fundamental differences between China's real estate and consumer finance markets and those of the U.S. and Dubai, which Chanos compares them to. First, when buying residential properties, consumers in China have to put down 30% before taking out a mortgage. For a second home, they have to put down 50%, no matter what their net worth. Therefore, China doesn't have the reckless consumer behavior that occurred in the U.S., where people with bad credit were taking out huge loans from Countrywide with no money down, or were buying 10 homes without deposits in the hope of flipping them in a few months. People who buy homes can afford it.
Also, mortgages are not being spliced up and packaged and securitized by the likes of Citigroup ( C - news - people ) and Bank of America ( BAC - news - people ). Instead mortgages are held by the original lenders, the way they were in the U.S. before financial innovation and lack of regulation broke down the old rules.
China-Jun 09’ levels. nuff said
Once again, I will state that people are taking unemployment that DON’T need it!
I have clients who are business owners in Florida. They have been on unemployment for over a year (husband and wife team) pulled in $150k+ working out of their house.
There are people in my neighborhood that are on unemployment. They figure the recession is a great opportunity to spend time with their kids.
[quote=mlgone]That number is 6 months old. Real Estate bottoms (credit flows again), jobs number will be there and then hold on for the ride[/quote]
Wishful thinking. Sorry man, but I’m not putting investment capital on that bet. I’m waiting for stocks to get cheap again, like they were this time last year, before I go long.
that's the real shame in all of this!! people abusing just because they can. A broker that sits next to me went out with some old piece of crap he bought his kid and took advantage of "cash for clunkers" The guy makes 400K!!! I said , don't you think you should let those that need it use it. " No, it's free money" We will soon find out how "free" this all was. The same greed that got us into this will make it that much worse!Once again, I will state that people are taking unemployment that DON’T need it!
I have clients who are business owners in Florida. They have been on unemployment for over a year (husband and wife team) pulled in $150k+ working out of their house.
There are people in my neighborhood that are on unemployment. They figure the recession is a great opportunity to spend time with their kids.
need to hold 1071.
[quote=Shania Twain] need to hold 1071.
[/quote]1071 looks precarious.
Tomorrow could be a bloodbath when the revised jobs numbers come out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html
buy buy buy
finally coming in to use dry powder[quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Shania Twain] need to hold 1071.
[/quote]1071 looks precarious.
Tomorrow could be a bloodbath when the revised jobs numbers come out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html
[/quote] the birth/death model? yikes you prector and dent been smoking too much meth bad jobs number is good. keep Ben in his chopper. no inflation. so why not? my real fear is when GOOD jobs number comes
[quote=Shania Twain][quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Shania Twain] need to hold 1071.
[/quote]1071 looks precarious.
Tomorrow could be a bloodbath when the revised jobs numbers come out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html
[/quote] the birth/death model? yikes you prector and dent been smoking too much meth bad jobs number is good. keep Ben in his chopper. no inflation. so why not? my real fear is when GOOD jobs number comes [/quote]
bad jobs number is good.
That's the first time I've heard that bullish argument before.
High unemployment = reduced income for consumers = less consumer spending = less goods and services bought by consumers = lower sales and profit margins for corporations = lower share prices = bad news for bulls
[quote=NYCTrader]
[bad jobs number is good. That’s the first time I’ve heard that bullish argument before.High unemployment = reduced income for consumers = less consumer spending = less goods and services bought by consumers = lower sales and profit margins for corporations = lower share prices = bad news for bulls
[/quote]
get long
[quote=iceco1d]How did Ben get to ride in the Scottrade helicopter…?[/quote]
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=iceco1d]How did Ben get to ride in the Scottrade helicopter…?[/quote][/quote]
I have his account.
We shorted leh,aig,fmn,fre,wb,mer and bsr in early 2008.
It was his idea.
He has a good feel for stocks.
its almost like he knows something.
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=iceco1d]How did Ben get to ride in the Scottrade helicopter…?[/quote][/quote]
Ice. you the voice of reason
SPX
buy sell or hold here 1070ish?
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=NYCTrader]
[bad jobs number is good. That’s the first time I’ve heard that bullish argument before.High unemployment = reduced income for consumers = less consumer spending = less goods and services bought by consumers = lower sales and profit margins for corporations = lower share prices = bad news for bulls
[/quote]
get long
[/quote]
Shania, you’ll be happy to know I just went long on a stock that reported today and got obliterated and finally hit my price target. I’ll let you figure out what that name is.
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=NYCTrader]
[bad jobs number is good. That’s the first time I’ve heard that bullish argument before.High unemployment = reduced income for consumers = less consumer spending = less goods and services bought by consumers = lower sales and profit margins for corporations = lower share prices = bad news for bulls
[/quote]
get long
[/quote]Shania, you’ll be happy to know I just went long on a stock that reported today and got obliterated and finally hit my price target. I’ll let you figure out what that name is.[/quote]
perfect
V a core position also.
money making machines
they like the mob. shd be illegal
im proud of u
you want to come from dark side. i feel it
Republic of Lithuania
They had the results of th MF 10 year in
LIT O fukcing wania
bahhahahaahahahhahhwhhahahahhwhahahhahwhhwhahahha
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=NYCTrader]
[bad jobs number is good. That’s the first time I’ve heard that bullish argument before.High unemployment = reduced income for consumers = less consumer spending = less goods and services bought by consumers = lower sales and profit margins for corporations = lower share prices = bad news for bulls
[/quote]
get long
[/quote]Shania, you’ll be happy to know I just went long on a stock that reported today and got obliterated and finally hit my price target. I’ll let you figure out what that name is.[/quote]
perfect
V a core position also.
money making machines
they like the mob. shd be illegal
im proud of u
[/quote]
Nope, not Visa.
v sister ma?
i was checking most declines
steak and shake is 330 per share? WTF?
that food is so good
[quote=Shania Twain]v sister ma?
i was checking most declines
steak and shake is 330 per share? WTF?
that food is so good
[/quote]
That’s what happens when you do a 1:20 reverse split.
I’ve eaten Steak and Shake exactly once in Missouri and got food poisoning.
Did not go long Mastercard. Come on, Shania, how hard is this. It’s a company that reported today and got destroyed and reached a new 52 week low.
steak and shake = awesome
now i know why you are a bear.
There’s a place in NYC called Shake Shack that makes a damn good cheeseburger.
Also a fan of In & Out in LA.
Moraen, I’m not always a bear. Just a bear right now. I’m actually bullish on a few individual names.
[quote=NYCTrader]There’s a place in NYC called Shake Shack that makes a damn good cheeseburger.
Also a fan of In & Out in LA.
Moraen, I’m not always a bear. Just a bear right now. I’m actually bullish on a few individual names.
[/quote]
I was just joking. I hear you. It’s a good opportunity for buying, but I’m having to use cash sparingly at this point.
Hey shoe - What was that site where you got all of the historical data from. I was trying to pull it up, but for some reason could not find it in my email. I signed up. I assume as soon as I can get to the website I’ll be able to log in, but I can’t seem to find it.
you right on jobs number
obama nation has been tipping their hats on job number
gibbs made a comment on crap revisions
at least we closed strong…
woooooo whooooooooo
these bears so funny. (btw Spains 10 yr is 4.65%)
the pigs funny
[quote=Moraen]
[quote=NYCTrader]There’s a place in NYC called Shake Shack that makes a damn good cheeseburger.
Also a fan of In & Out in LA.
Moraen, I’m not always a bear. Just a bear right now. I’m actually bullish on a few individual names.
[/quote]
I was just joking. I hear you. It’s a good opportunity for buying, but I’m having to use cash sparingly at this point.
Hey shoe - What was that site where you got all of the historical data from. I was trying to pull it up, but for some reason could not find it in my email. I signed up. I assume as soon as I can get to the website I’ll be able to log in, but I can’t seem to find it.
[/quote]
Gotcha, Moraen. Sometimes it’s hard to tell when someone’s joking or not on this forum.
Mmmmmm, Shake Shack. My sister lives right down the street. That shat is good.There’s a place in NYC called Shake Shack that makes a damn good cheeseburger.
Also a fan of In & Out in LA.
Moraen, I’m not always a bear. Just a bear right now. I’m actually bullish on a few individual names.
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain] need to hold 1071.
[/quote]1071 looks precarious.
Tomorrow could be a bloodbath when the revised jobs numbers come out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html
[/quote]
Unemployment rate was a lot lower than expected.
By the way Shania, the name I went long yesterday was WFR.
wfr yikes. not my cup of tea William o neill is my daddy (i have my eye oin the ubekastan 10 yr today. could be huge. bwhahahahahahhahhaha)By the way Shania, the name I went long yesterday was WFR.
[quote=Magician]
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain] need to hold 1071.
[/quote]1071 looks precarious.
Tomorrow could be a bloodbath when the revised jobs numbers come out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html
[/quote]
Unemployment rate was a lot lower than expected.
[/quote]
Still lost 1.1 million jobs though since last year. That's pretty bad.
wfr yikes. not my cup of tea William o neill is my daddy (i have my eye oin the ubekastan 10 yr today. could be huge. bwhahahahahahhahhaha) [/quote][quote=NYCTrader]By the way Shania, the name I went long yesterday was WFR.
Love the company. Amazing value under $12.
[quote=Magician]
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain] need to hold 1071.
[/quote]1071 looks precarious.
Tomorrow could be a bloodbath when the revised jobs numbers come out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html
[/quote]
Unemployment rate was a lot lower than expected.
[/quote]
Bloodbath.
good time to buy
[quote=NYCTrader]There’s a place in NYC called Shake Shack that makes a damn good cheeseburger.Also a fan of In & Out in LA. Moraen, I’m not always a bear. Just a bear right now. I’m actually bullish on a few individual names.
Mmmmmm, Shake Shack. My sister lives right down the street. That shat is good. [/quote]
is she hot?
[quote=NYCTrader]
Bloodbath.
[/quote]
Could not have asked more a more perfect day.
1045 intra day
bears RABID
ireland default
bwhahahhahahahahahhahahahahahahah
Thank God those bills went off in Yobeckastan
bwhahahahahahahhaha
2002 missed bubble
2008 missed bubble
2010 "they wont get me again"
Ill get out before next BUBBLE
no bubble
classic
keep your eye on Slovakia
NYC - wasn’t quite the bloodbath your were expecting I imagine.
[quote=Moraen]NYC - wasn’t quite the bloodbath your were expecting I imagine.
[/quote]
Not at all what I was expecting. That last hour rally was impressive. There was a rumor floating around that the ECB will announce a bailout of Greece over the weekend. Not sure if that’s what triggered it. Or if the consumer credit numbers released at 3:00 beating expectations (which was still pretty weak, IMO) did it. Or if the bulls have simply regained control…
This doesn’t change my macro view. Still bearish. Think fair value on the S&P is closer to 900. Will take positions in individual names as my price targets are hit on the way down. Incredibly bearish on China. Got long again on USD v EUR a few weeks ago. Gonna hold that to 130 or so.
Yeah, it looks like it was a short squeeze based on the ECB news on Greece.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHWYxn1VA98A&pos=1
Monday will be interesting if this rumor fails to materialize…
western europe debt “issue” is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever. funny
ummmm hello. spain aint leh. duh
dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long
JohnKerry.jpg1500×1875
[quote=NYCTrader] Yeah, it looks like it was a short squeeze based on the ECB news on Greece. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHWYxn1VA98A&pos=1Monday will be interesting if this rumor fails to materialize…
[/quote]
Greece gdp = 343 B
WMT’s revenues = 420 B
Sorry Shania, I’m not joining the bulls based on one hour of trading from 3:00-4:00 pm on a Friday when shorts got spooked going into the weekend because of a rumor the ECB is about to take the unprecedented step of bailing out a sovereign nation.
That isn’t the signal I’m looking for.
Jobs situation is improving. As all bears have said, that is the key.
Year Earnings Yield Dividend Yield S&P 500 Earnings Dividends
1960 5.34% 3.41% 58.11 3.10 1.98
1961 4.71% 2.85% 71.55 3.37 2.04
1962 5.81% 3.40% 63.1 3.67 2.15
1963 5.51% 3.13% 75.02 4.13 2.35
1964 5.62% 3.05% 84.75 4.76 2.58
1965 5.73% 3.06% 92.43 5.30 2.83
1966 6.74% 3.59% 80.33 5.41 2.88
1967 5.66% 3.09% 96.47 5.46 2.98
1968 5.51% 2.93% 103.86 5.72 3.04
1969 6.63% 3.52% 92.06 6.10 3.24
1970 5.98% 3.46% 92.15 5.51 3.19
1971 5.46% 3.10% 102.09 5.57 3.16
1972 5.23% 2.70% 118.05 6.17 3.19
1973 8.16% 3.70% 97.55 7.96 3.61
1974 13.64% 5.43% 68.56 9.35 3.72
1975 8.55% 4.14% 90.19 7.71 3.73
1976 9.07% 3.93% 107.46 9.75 4.22
1977 11.43% 5.11% 95.1 10.87 4.86
1978 12.11% 5.39% 96.11 11.64 5.18
1979 13.48% 5.53% 107.94 14.55 5.97
1980 11.04% 4.74% 135.76 14.99 6.44
1981 12.39% 5.57% 122.55 15.18 6.83
1982 9.83% 4.93% 140.64 13.82 6.93
1983 8.06% 4.32% 164.93 13.29 7.12
1984 10.07% 4.68% 167.24 16.84 7.83
1985 7.42% 3.88% 211.28 15.68 8.20
1986 5.96% 3.38% 242.17 14.43 8.19
1987 6.49% 3.71% 247.08 16.04 9.17
1988 8.69% 3.68% 277.72 24.12 10.22
1989 6.88% 3.32% 353.4 24.32 11.73
1990 6.86% 3.74% 330.22 22.65 12.35
1991 4.63% 3.11% 417.09 19.30 12.97
1992 4.79% 2.90% 435.71 20.87 12.64
1993 5.77% 2.72% 466.45 26.90 12.69
1994 6.91% 2.91% 459.27 31.75 13.36
1995 6.12% 2.30% 615.93 37.70 14.17
1996 5.49% 2.01% 740.74 40.63 14.89
1997 4.54% 1.60% 970.43 44.09 15.52
1998 3.60% 1.32% 1229.23 44.27 16.20
1999 3.52% 1.14% 1469.25 51.68 16.71
2000 4.25% 1.23% 1320.28 56.13 16.27
2001 3.38% 1.37% 1148.09 38.85 15.74
2002 5.23% 1.83% 879.82 46.04 16.08
2003 4.92% 1.61% 1111.91 54.69 17.88
2004 5.58% 1.60% 1211.92 67.68 19.407
2005 6.12% 1.79% 1248.29 76.45 22.38
2006 6.18% 1.77% 1418.3 87.72 25.05
2007 5.62% 1.89% 1468.36 82.54 27.73
2008 7.24% 3.11% 903.25 65.39 28.05
2009 5.35% 2.00% 1115.1 59.65 22.31
2010 SPX earnings $80 ish!!!
subprime? back window
new normal this Billy boy
stocks cheap
Thanks ML Gone[quote=suspended]good time to buy
Looks like an avatar you have used anyway[/quote]
Hope you bought!
In this environment, i would have expected to see a selloff on a Friday afternoon with market participants not wanting to be LONG over the weekend. Not the other way around. Tells me there is good underlying strenght here.
Does anyone really expect that Greece or any other PIG will default on their debt? C'mon, the world isnt going to let that happen. EU will step in and if necessary, other countries, World Bank, whatever. We've already seen that the powers that be will do what they have to do. Corporate balance sheets are stronger than ever, companies are lean as they can be in costs structure, dividends are rising again, jobs which are a lagging indicator anyway, came in better than expected yesterday. Q4 earnings are beating all over the place. Everyone is buying technology, (the products, not just the stocks). Capital flows to innovation, and the U.S. innovates. The emerging economies story is old, maybe a little long in tooth, but still true and intact longer term http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8 Short term cautious? maybe, but i have a feeling not. I'm a bull looking out past my nose. No ArmeggedonWon’t disagree with your SHORT term viewpoint AGEMAN. I lightened up a bit end of the day Friday for appropriate clients.
I think any client who is in their 40's early 50"s and has the ability to add on dips, can ignore whats going on right now. Others do need to be more careful.[quote=Sportsfreakbob] Won’t disagree with your SHORT term viewpoint AGEMAN. I lightened up a bit end of the day Friday for appropriate clients.
agreed. But I know 12 months from now the market will be higher. Time Frame boyz
08-09 scared people BIG TIME.
perfect trap
late 08 death sell off
then a calm
then feb mar 09 BLOODBATH
SO MANY got out
so many with cash at 0% now
1070 break was no so hot.
bet it holds
friday’s action says it all
money LOOKING for a home
new highs
intra day friday (1044?) is the low (like july 7)
repeat:
GREECE gdp 342 B
WMT’s revenues 420 B
F greece. Its post tramatic bear market syndrome
EVERYONE LOOKING FOR NEXT SHOE TOO FALL.
its comical
watching CNBC
Showing the GD Latvia bond auction
aint gonna happen
too easy. too many would be right
[quote=suspended]
Hope you bought!
[/quote]
mel,
your a bull.
come clean brother.
your welcome on bull money train
[quote=Shania Twain]western europe debt “issue” is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever. funny
ummmm hello. spain aint leh. duh
dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long
[/quote]
Shania, you want to short the USD vs EUR, be my guest. The more I research this, the more bullish on the USD I become. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 1.20. ECB is backed into a corner. They have to do something about Greece. But as soon as they do that, moral hazard kicks in and suddenly Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Iraly will have their hands out expecting the same (remind anyone of a certain bank/auto bailout in 08-09?) Remember, the Euro is a relatively new currency and this is their first major test. Not sure about you, but I’m betting most investors aren’t going to want to hang around and see if the folks in the EU are going to be able to figure this out. Greenback’s going to be the safe haven of choice. Get long USD.
[quote=AGEMAN][
I don't have any of those clients in their 40's and 50's. I have mostly 60's-80's so I have to be more tactical in these situations. I already have most of my clients set up very conservatively, but I did make some moves today. It seems the dollar may be strengthening for awhile, so I lightened up on MLP holdings that were up 40-70% in the past 12-18 months since I put some clients into them. We will look to buy them back in a couple of months perhaps if we can buy them lower. Also, lightened up on EM etf's for a client in a tactical account. The long term is a bunch of short term moves you make. I think most clients see through the old buy and hold we can ride this out routine. If we want to keep our clients in the market and not have to get that call that says go to all cash then we have to be tactical in these markets. My goal is to keep the client invested (not necessarily in stocks) so they don't bail completely. I was pretty successful at that during the market downturn. I was very fortunate to make a couple of good tactical calls as well that kept people invested and made them some money. (Buying a lot of MLP's and Muni funds beginning in Oct-Dec 2008)[/quote] I did a lot of the same late last week, for my clients who are volatility-sensitive or 50-60 ISH. Sold some DBC and other commodity / weak dollar related stuff, lightened up on EM, and Materials ETF's. Question - whats your rational for selling the MLP's, ? They aren;t that sensitive to the price of the commodity, they are more sensitive to interest rates.This forum is HILARIOUS! Some of you have ZERO credibility. buy buy buy, that’s all you know. Monkeys that do what they’re told, good job monkey’s. You have Shania trying to throw out support numbers that are a joke. ( probably from CNBC ) Morons saying people don’t want to go long over the weekend. ( Holy crap if that isn’t stupid! no one wanted to stay short. 19 out of the last 21 Mondays were up.) For everyone that doesn’t know what Friday’s last hour was…short covering. That is the only thing that makes moves like this. Like, March 6th 09’ on a smaller scale. And NO Shania, this is not a bottom. If you want to know what to watch…If SPX breaks 1103 on good volume, bulls will run! Geez…The simplest things are a mystery here. My opinion…bad few weeks ( weekly charts are still horendous ) rally back to 1100 then a fall to the lows.
buy US dollar short gold short market treasuries cash For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it. I appologize for the harsh words, but some of you have been trying to bait me into an arguement for the last week. Also, 2 new clients last week!!!![quote=Shania Twain] [quote=suspended]
Hope you bought!
[/quote]
mel,
your a bull.
come clean brother.
your welcome on bull money train[/quote]
Your right Shania, I was wrong. I am a bull now. Mlgone changed my viewpoint on this
No announcement from ECB on Greece over the weekend. Bad news for the bulls. Today could get ugly…
[quote=howboutshoeshine] This forum is HILARIOUS! Some of you have ZERO credibility. buy buy buy, that’s all you know. Monkeys that do what they’re told, good job monkey’s. You have Shania trying to throw out support numbers that are a joke. ( probably from CNBC ) Morons saying people don’t want to go long over the weekend. ( Holy crap if that isn’t stupid! no one wanted to stay short. 19 out of the last 21 Mondays were up.) For everyone that doesn’t know what Friday’s last hour was…short covering. That is the only thing that makes moves like this. Like, March 6th 09’ on a smaller scale. And NO Shania, this is not a bottom. If you want to know what to watch…If SPX breaks 1103 on good volume, bulls will run! Geez…The simplest things are a mystery here. My opinion…bad few weeks ( weekly charts are still horendous ) rally back to 1100 then a fall to the lows.
short gold
short market
treasuries
cash
For what it’s worth. Also, I have been correct, don’t forget it. I appologize for the harsh words, but some of you have been trying to bait me into an arguement for the last week. Also, 2 new clients last week!!![/quote]
don’t you make like 120K?
[quote=
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it. [/quote] short spx 940ish short gold 890ish I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correI have been correct, don't forget it. ct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. (buy price needs to be LOWER the sell price. )[quote=Shania Twain][quote=
For what it's worth. Also, I have been correct, don't forget it. [/quote] short spx 940ish short gold 890ish I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correI have been correct, don't forget it. ct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. I have been correct, don't forget it. (buy price needs to be LOWER the sell price. ) [/quote] Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Funny thing is... you know you are lying,but you have been a weel-disciplined spin machine for so long, you probably even believe your lies.Originally posted by howboutshoeshine
Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Funny thing is… you know you are lying,but you have been a weel-disciplined spin machine for so long, you probably even believe your lies[
Just going by your posts.
This, of course is the official record of this message board.
Please show us when you “bought low” or "sold high"
Before it happened.
(that is another important point. For example, if you pick the Aints to win the super bowl it MUST be BEFORE the game is over. we have found over time that it is easier to call teh market AFTER it has happened. many people are good at this)
can’t see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster. Do you know how I know?? I’ve made money!!! Oh ya, for every single client. conservative aggressive, doesn’t matter. Keep spinning your webs, soon enough you won’t be able too.
can’t see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster. Do you know how I know?? I’ve made money!!! Oh ya, for every single client. conservative aggressive, doesn’t matter. Keep spinning your webs, soon enough you won’t be able too.
Yeah your a big hitter shoe. How much did you make again? 120K Wow you are a player. Tool boy
[quote=howboutshoeshine] can’t see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster.
[/quote]
short spx at 940.
retest
acats-a-raining
swans-a-singing
new lows
sorry.
I thought you meant market was going lower.
wait its swans-a-swimming
right?
who is
a-singing?
You can do it Shania!!!!!!!!![quote=howboutshoeshine] can’t see what you wrote, but you ARE full of SH*T!! spinster.
[/quote]
short spx at 940.
retest
acats-a-raining
swans-a-singing
new lows
sorry.
I thought you meant market was going lower.
Senior Member
Joined: 23 Sept. 2009
Posts: 823 Post Options Post Reply Quote Shania Twain Report Post Quote Reply Posted: 04 Jan. 2010 at 9:24am Jan 4 2010
shorts feeling PAIN.
next 3 weeks gonna be fun.
naz looks even better the industrials/spx PURE GENIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Good monkey.
maybe you should pull your market crash post from Nov 09, now that was a call
1120 gone on spx. PLEASE cover those shorts
<SPAN =smText>By Shania Twain, 24 Dec. 2009 at 11:22am
Shania, I believe you have an “admirer”
Posted: 25 Nov. 2009 at 11:47am Originally posted by howboutshoeshine
Well, Losers. I'm done, you're too stupid for me. 10% US dollar 15% 20 year treasuries 15% corporates 15% aggregate bond index 5% short GOLD 10% TIPS 15% BIL CASH Odd.....No mention of shorts????? Not till mid-January anyways......... Spin spin spin........ Point proven, I will not be negative to you again Shania. Truce?
1120 gone on spx. PLEASE cover those shorts<SPAN =smText>By Shania Twain, 24 Dec. 2009 at 11:22am
ummm. yes.
(although did pull a bit off table when sentiment got nuts.)
I am a ragging mf bull.
actually shoe, you did say “5% short gold”.
You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.
They are not the same.
Meletio is a complete toolbag.
Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.
I stand corrected. However, that short is up 5%. I put it on in Mid-Nov. I added to it, but I was on a vaca. from this site, so I have no proof. Believe me or not??? Up to you.actually shoe, you did say “5% short gold”.
You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.
They are not the same.
Meletio is a complete toolbag.
Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.
go back on vacation.
[quote=Moraen] actually shoe, you did say “5% short gold”.You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.
[/quote]
acerbic.
damn good word.
i goog’ed it
As did I.[quote=Moraen] actually shoe, you did say “5% short gold”.You guys are confusing howaboutshoeshine with meletio.They are not the same. Meletio is a complete toolbag.Shoe is a bear with an acerbic wit.
[/quote]
acerbic.
damn good word.
i goog’ed it
ok…shine.
Today was some really crappy action.
Mutual fund Monday also.
Bulls need to make a stand here.
pivot 1070ish area
do not want to violate Friday’s low.
today was really disappointing
just like early July (July 7th wash out)
bulls will make a stand here.
judgement time
Bulls will not stand up until we pass 1035 but before 1017. People are still scared. The buy has to be great to talk them out of the bond funds and into equities. Conversations like this will need to occur…
Hey Doug... Doug Doug Goose.... How's it going? Oh really..., yeah we are all hurting, well you know down was the new up haha. Anyway, you wanna know the reason I called you Dan? Well I wanted to let you know that the markets are really pulling back right now and this may be the last chance you have to get in below 10,000. I would say once the DOW cracks 10 again it will not look back. Well anyway Dean I won't take up too much time, I just wanted to let you know about the great opportunities in the Small Blend Value Caps for Intermediate Corps right now and you should really get 50,000 back to work!!! How does an investment like this sound to you Dave?
p.s. I am a Bull as well Shania and that pic is my desktop background. Can't wait until the market opens. I love down days.
Oh shoot... My bad Dale I had your number beside the wrong name on my note pad of people to call today. Well somebody is gonna jump at this opportunity so if you change your mind Dwain just give me a shout back buddy.
This is quite different than July. Volume is absolutely screaming on the downside. A gap up in the morning does not help your cause. It's meant to make you feel good and provide others with a higher selling price. 19 out of the last 22 Mondays have been up, so yesterday should not have been expected, that's why everyone covered shorts on Friday. If this thing can bust through 1103 on good volume the bulls will be back. Until then, this is all road noise. There is a 160% premium on 700 November puts and the market is starting to show it's hand. I anticipate more fall to come and a rally back to around 1100 before we head to the lows. I hope I am wrong.ok…shine.
Today was some really crappy action.
Mutual fund Monday also.
Bulls need to make a stand here.
pivot 1070ish area
do not want to violate Friday’s low.
today was really disappointing
just like early July (July 7th wash out)
bulls will make a stand here.
judgement time
I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilariousD…are you drinking? You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.
This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen. Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS. Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation. What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else. Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact. I'm long...at least for the first half of the year. Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run. When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen. Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS. Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation. What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else. Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact. I'm long...at least for the first half of the year. Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run. When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.[/quote][quote=NYCTrader]This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen. Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS. Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…
I'm not calling you dumb. I'm not calling bulls dumb. I'm calling people who have knee-jerk reaction to news without thinking through the ramifications dumb (look at some of the articles coming out of the media about this issue). I don't presume to know more than anyone else. I have no way of predicting the future. I have no idea what the markets will to do from one day to the next. All I have is my analysis and my judgment.
Saying bears state opinions as fact is like saying bulls state opinions as fact. It's not really a valid argument. Everyone has an opinion on this market. Some are more rigorous than others. I think you fall into a trap when you become overly dogmatic. I was bullish from Dec '08 to Nov-'09. I am now bearish. I will likely be bullish again after the market hits reasonable levels. Not saying stocks don't have room to run or won't run, but I'm not going to put capital to work in equities while we're in an environment like this one.
I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious[/quote] Mostly it came from these funny ass Scottrade commercials... Anybody know a guy like this? Scottrade 1 Scottrade 2 Scottrade 3 Scottrade 4[quote=iceco1d]D…are you drinking? You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.
I don't know debolt, but I think he is being sarcastic and I am finding it hilarious[/quote] Mostly it came from these funny ass Scottrade commercials... Anybody know a guy like this? Scottrade 1 Scottrade 2 Scottrade 3 Scottrade 4[/quote] Funny comercials. Funnier posts!![quote=howboutshoeshine][quote=iceco1d]D…are you drinking? You changed the prospects name about 4 times in that post.
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation. What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else. Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact. I'm long...at least for the first half of the year. Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run. When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.[/quote] I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense. -You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You??? Fundamental -higher taxes for rich -printing press for fed govt. -NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?) -less income for average person -high unemployment ( and getting worse ) -Private sector professionals going govt.?? -high insider selling, virtually no insider buying -negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow -and on and on and on Technical -on and on and on and on[quote=NYCTrader]This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen. Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS. Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…
[quote=Indyone][quote=NYCTrader]This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen. Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS. Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation. What’s dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else. Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact. I’m long…at least for the first half of the year. Unlike most of the rest of you, I don’t know if I’ll be right or not, but the research I’ve read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run. When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I’ll be more cautious than I am today, but for now…call me a bull…but don’t call me dumb.[/quote]
I have had this debate a million times, but I don’t think anyone is stupid. I just think you’re believing what you’re told instead of just using common sense.
-You brought up PE’s. Well…the 70’s recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???
Fundamental
-higher taxes for rich
-printing press for fed govt.
-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)
-less income for average person
-high unemployment ( and getting worse )
-Private sector professionals going govt.??
-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying
-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow
-and on and on and on
Technical
-on and on and on and on[/quote]
Thanks Rosenberg…we will get back to you sooon…
[quote=Shania Twain] ok…shine.
Today was some really crappy action.
Mutual fund Monday also.
Bulls need to make a stand here.
pivot 1070ish area
do not want to violate Friday’s low.
today was really disappointing
just like early July (July 7th wash out)
bulls will make a stand here.
judgement time
[/quote]
Bulls need to make a stand here.
bingo.
Sell off over.
Friday intra-day all you bears get.
today was a perfect and important day.
(BTW: Greece bullshti means zip)
TEAR DOWN THAT WALL.
God bless global free markets. get on BULL MONEY TRAIN
hhmmmmmm. Not sure how today qualified as good.
Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%)
S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%)
Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%)
excuse me
Meaningless-remember when the DOW popped up 16% in one day in October? Shania- price by itself is meaningless. I rrealize you do not watch technicals, ( from your posts ) but this is why you have a hard time making calls. Statistics, time, price, etc. etc. etc. will always be on a bulls side. However, when you're wrong......bears( aka.... .smart money.....aka the guys that WERE bulls ) take it ALL back! What happened to 1071? found new support?
Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%)
S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%)
Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%)
excuse me
Meaningless-remember when the DOW popped up 16% in one day in October? Shania- price by itself is meaningless. I rrealize you do not watch technicals, ( from your posts ) but this is why you have a hard time making calls. Statistics, time, price, etc. etc. etc. will always be on a bulls side. However, when you're wrong......bears( aka.... .smart money.....aka the guys that WERE bulls ) take it ALL back! [/quote] <> #sideNav{width:170px;} Short Term Effects of Smoking Crystal Meth Learn to spot the signs of meth use...-->[quote=Shania Twain]
Dow 10,058.64 +150.25 (1.52%)
S&P 500 1,070.52 +13.78 (1.30%)
Nasdaq 2,150.87 +24.82 (1.17%)
excuse me
The short-term effects of smoking crystal meth are varied and dangerous, making this one of the more hazardous, if not the most hazardous, street drugs to use.
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Agitation Paranoia Unusual to completely bizarre behaviors Increased heart rate and blood pressure Increased body temperatureAll of the above are short and long-term effects of crystal meth. Most of the time, the long-term effects of crystal meth are simply highly-exaggerated short-term effects. Another thing crystal meth can do right away is effect nutrition
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< = id=Googles =text/> < = ="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js"> < ="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/render_ads.js"> google_protectAndRun("render_ads.js::google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad); < =1.1 ="http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/ads?client=ca-pub-3619764495662405&output=js&_size=468x60&lmt=1265622978&num_ads=3&skip=3&channel=6160789012&ad_=text_&ea=0&feedback_=on&flash=10.0.32.18&=http%3A%2F%2Faddiction.lovetoknow.com%2Fwiki%2FShort_Term_Effects_of_Smoking_Crystal_Meth&dt=1265813864181&correlator=1265813863495&frm=0&ga_vid=1126817745.1265813700&ga_sid=1265813700&ga_hid=2129413074&ga_fc=1&u_tz=-300&u_his=7&u_java=1&u_h=1024&u_w=1280&u_ah=996&u_aw=1280&u_cd=32&u_nplug=0&u_nmime=0&biw=999&bih=847&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fsearch%3Fhl%3Den%26safe%3Dactive%26q%3Dsmoking%2Bmeth%26aq%3Df%26aql%3Df%26aqi%3Dg10%26oq%3D&loc=http%3A%2F%2Faddiction.lovetoknow.com%2Fwiki%2FShort_Term_Effects_of_Smoking_Crystal_Meth&fu=0&ifi=2&dtd=16"> Ads by Google How Long Does the Effect of Crystal Meth Last?The first effects noted above that hit someone after smoking crystal meth, such as the rush and euphoria, can last from two to six hours. The problem is that often users go on what's called a "speed run". This means they'll continually use, so there's a question about how long short-term effects last. Also, once a drug tolerance has built in an individual, it becomes more difficult to draw a time table. However, two to six hours is what the best research noted by Narconon relates. Narconon is a great resource for users of crystal meth. Narconon is a non-profit program that has associations with around 100 or more drug rehab programs and clinics.
Other resources for help with a crystal meth addiction include:
Your health care provider - If you don't have one, go to a hospital and they will help you or contact a low-cost clinic near you. You can find clinics in the Yellow Pages. Crystal Meth Anonymous The Crystal Meth Addiction Resource Center Some good reading material includes: Addiction Treatment Center Addiction and Recovery How to Survive Addiction Retrieved from "http://addiction.lovetoknow.com/wiki/Short_Term_Effects_of_Smoking_Crystal_Meth"getContributors('Initial Author: Jennifer Chait
Recent Contributors: JC Redmond, Kelly Roper') Initial Author: Jennifer Chait
Recent Contributors: JC Redmond, Kelly Roper
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DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info…and
I disagree. That was f***ing hilarious.DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info…and
I disagree. That was f***ing hilarious.[/quote] Humor does vary[quote=howboutshoeshine]DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info…and
DUMBEST post to date Shania. I give you solid info…and
actually I think he is dead on. And it was funny
That meth sounds fairly brutal
anyone tried it? sounds like an amazing buzzon it right now. Pretty cool watching my monitor, naked
Me too. I just got done cleaning my house and running from my refrigerator.on it right now. Pretty cool watching my monitor, naked
on it right now. Pretty cool watching my monitor, naked
too much info.
thank you for sharing
That could be the funniest thing ever. Admin hacked my account and put that tag line down there. Hello admin, please don’t try the same on my checking accounts
Ironic.[quote=thrownouttwice] That could be the funniest thing ever. Admin hacked my account and put that tag line down there. Hello admin, please don’t try the same on my checking accounts[/quote]
What do you expect, your a dummy…
goog getting into broadband. wtf
This is coolest company on planet.
generate $378237821738217312731.00 from search
and fukc around with the left over cash.
I think the other PIGS are already in the equation. What's dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else. Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact. I'm long...at least for the first half of the year. Unlike most of the rest of you, I don't know if I'll be right or not, but the research I've read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run. When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I'll be more cautious than I am today, but for now...call me a bull...but don't call me dumb.[/quote] I have had this debate a million times, but I don't think anyone is stupid. I just think you're believing what you're told instead of just using common sense. -You brought up PE's. Well...the 70's recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You??? Fundamental -higher taxes for rich -printing press for fed govt. -NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?) -less income for average person -high unemployment ( and getting worse ) -Private sector professionals going govt.?? -high insider selling, virtually no insider buying -negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow -and on and on and on Technical -on and on and on and on[/quote] You know what? I'm done. I started responding to everything you listed, but I'm wasting far too much time one someone that I think is believing what he is reading instead of using common sense. Economic cycles come and go. You and I disagree about where we are in the current one. I'm not a sheep, I do read differing opinions, and I do understand that not everything is coming up roses right now. BFD...this happens after every recession we've ever had. There is always something to bitch about. Frankly, I'm getting damned sick of you trying to tell me that I'm not using common sense, or am stupid or whatever. Your predictions will ultimately be worth what we all paid for them...you don't own any intelligence that is not already out there and you are choosing to believe only those items that fit your doomsday scenario. You can write reams and reams of this sky is falling crap and I still won't buy it. If you're truly the messiah, you'd be making a hell of a lot more money than you are and I'd at least be seeing you on CNBC by now. The people buying TIPs at this level are the true dumbasses. It's your condescension that pisses me off...you're not half as f-ing smart as you think you are.[quote=Indyone][quote=NYCTrader]This is one of the dumbest rallies I’ve ever seen. Giving Greece an aid package only opens the door to further handouts to the other PIIGS. Wonder how long it will take for the dumb money to figure this out…
Indyone- My advice is currently worth about 7%. That said, what is the average market cycle in length? When does the bottom typically occur?
Where are you reading what I am writing? I can't find it in but 3-4 places....... among thousands of bullish analysts. Also, I could care less if you listen to me. Probabilities are just that, and I COULD be wrong. I highly doubt it, but time, statistics and the history of the stock market are on your side...good luck. Remember, stocks go up in the long term! And don't you worry your little head about my income.[quote=Indyone] [I think the other PIGS are already in the equation. What’s dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else. Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact. I’m long…at least for the first half of the year. Unlike most of the rest of you, I don’t know if I’ll be right or not, but the research I’ve read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run. When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I’ll be more cautious than I am today, but for now…call me a bull…but don’t call me dumb.I have had this debate a million times, but I don’t think anyone is stupid. <strong>I just think you’re believing what you’re told instead of just using common sense</strong>.</div>
<br /><div>-You brought up PE’s. Well…the 70’s recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???</div>
<br /><div><strong>Fundamental</strong></div>
<br /><div>-higher taxes for rich</div>
<br /><div>-printing press for fed govt.</div>
<br /><div>-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)</div>
<br /><div>-less income for average person</div>
<br /><div>-high unemployment ( and getting worse )</div>
<br /><div>-Private sector professionals going govt.??</div>
<br /><div>-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying</div>
<br /><div>-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow</div>
<br /><div>-and on and on and on</div>
<br /><div><strong>Technical</strong></div>
<br /><div><strong></strong> </div>
<br /><div>-on and on and on and on[/quote]
[/quote]
And guess what my friend.
The market collective
ALREADY KNOWS ALL OF the stuff you just said. You think all that stuff is news to the market? come on.
here is the REAL story
1. billions OF PEOPLE IN THE LABOR MARKET THAT WILL WORK FOR $1.00 A DAY
=NO INFLATION
2. WITH NO INFLATION THREAT…GOVT CAN STIM TILL THE mf COWS COME HOME.
3. THE MARKET KNOWS ALL THAT STUFF YOU SPEWED OUT (DUH).
4. STOCKS ARE SIMPLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
PEOPLE ARE WAY,WAY,WAY UNDER-INVESTED AND SCARED. (look at trim tabs) (think about your client attitudes)
5. THE STIM IS GOING TO KEEP RATES LOW (STOCK ALTERNATIVES)
6. AND THE BIG ONE.
THE REAL STORY.
THE REAL WILDCARD THAT IS BEING GREATLY UNDERESTIMATED
THE GLOBAL MF ECONOMY.
do the math.
its the GD industrial revolution times 100
dont miss the forest for the trees. do the math.
free markets blooming EVERYWHERE across the globe.
position your self for the coming global competition for resources.
duh
think
billions of new people competing for resources.
BRAZIL MIDDLE CLASS, CHINA MIDDLE CLASS, INDIA EATING 3 TIMES A DAY ETC ETC ETC
The labor market angle is HUGE and being missed by many,many people.
Inflation is what spoils the equity party.
inflation is labor costs.
Go to MF Sam’s and look around.
oil was 147
metals
ag etc all making all time highs in 2007
core PPI? 1.2%
stocks are so cheap.
this wall of worry is a wonderful thing
grand pa: You were a stock broker during the monster globle economy emerging! how cool
you must of made a fortune!!! what a no brainer.
well, son…i was kind of afraid and we kept our money in TIPS and tbills.
emerging markets- July 09’ levels
China- June 09' levels Buying and selling at the correct times is key to making money. You once said William O'Neil is your man, so you should already know this.The Bovespa will be over 200,000 by the end of the decade
(at a minimum)
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=Indyone] [I think the other PIGS are already in the equation. What’s dumb is thinking that you know more than anyone else. Not aiming that just at you, but the bears here like to state opinion as if it is fact. I’m long…at least for the first half of the year. Unlike most of the rest of you, I don’t know if I’ll be right or not, but the research I’ve read leads me to believe that stocks are undervalued (about 13.5X earnings) and have room to run. When the stimulus starts getting pulled out, I’ll be more cautious than I am today, but for now…call me a bull…but don’t call me dumb.I have had this debate a million times, but I don’t think anyone is stupid. <strong>I just think you’re believing what you’re told instead of just using common sense</strong>.
<br><div>-You brought up PE’s. Well…the 70’s recession ended with (9-10) I think this situation is a lot worse . You???</div>
<br><div><strong>Fundamental</strong></div>
<br><div>-higher taxes for rich</div>
<br><div>-printing press for fed govt.</div>
<br><div>-NO printing press for states ( god only knows what this will do?)</div>
<br><div>-less income for average person</div>
<br><div>-high unemployment ( and getting worse )</div>
<br><div>-Private sector professionals going govt.??</div>
<br><div>-high insider selling, virtually no insider buying</div>
<br><div>-negative t-bill rates, yet massive inflow</div>
<br><div>-and on and on and on</div>
<br><div><strong>Technical</strong></div>
<br><div><strong></strong> </div>
<br><div>-on and on and on and on[/quote]
[/quote]
And guess what my friend.
The market collective
ALREADY KNOWS ALL OF the stuff you just said. You think all that stuff is news to the market? come on.
here is the REAL story
1. billions OF PEOPLE IN THE LABOR MARKET THAT WILL WORK FOR $1.00 A DAY
=NO INFLATION
2. WITH NO INFLATION THREAT…GOVT CAN STIM TILL THE mf COWS COME HOME.
3. THE MARKET KNOWS ALL THAT STUFF YOU SPEWED OUT (DUH).
4. STOCKS ARE SIMPLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND:
PEOPLE ARE WAY,WAY,WAY UNDER-INVESTED AND SCARED. (look at trim tabs) (think about your client attitudes)
5. THE STIM IS GOING TO KEEP RATES LOW (STOCK ALTERNATIVES)
6. AND THE BIG ONE.
THE REAL STORY.
THE REAL WILDCARD THAT IS BEING GREATLY UNDERESTIMATED
THE GLOBAL MF ECONOMY.
do the math.
its the GD industrial revolution times 100
dont miss the forest for the trees. do the math.
free markets blooming EVERYWHERE across the globe.
position your self for the coming global competition for resources.
duh
think
billions of new people competing for resources.
BRAZIL MIDDLE CLASS, CHINA MIDDLE CLASS, INDIA EATING 3 TIMES A DAY ETC ETC ETC
The labor market angle is HUGE and being missed by many,many people.
Inflation is what spoils the equity party.
inflation is labor costs.
Go to MF Sam’s and look around.
oil was 147
metals
ag etc all making all time highs in 2007
core PPI? 1.2%
stocks are so cheap.
this wall of worry is a wonderful thing
grand pa: You were a stock broker during the monster globle economy emerging! how cool
you must of made a fortune!!! what a no brainer.
well, son…i was kind of afraid and we kept our money in TIPS and tbills.[/quote]
Shania, do you really believe the markets are efficient?
dunno
[quote=Shania Twain]dunno[/quote]
Reason I ask is because you make these assumptions that the “market collective knows” – as if it were some wise, all-knowing entity that is never wrong. I disagree. I think the markets are wildly inefficient, which is why I believe in active management and not passive indexing.
Euro is getting smoked. I hate to tell you I was right, but back when Dubai happened, I remember making the call that it wasn’t going to be an isolated incident while you posted pictures of arab men riding on camels. This thing is for real. After Greece gets resolved, all eyes turn on Portugal, then Spain, then Irelan and Italy and LAtvia, then UK… Long USD vs EUR is the trade right now.
The UK is straight up scary. I'm actually glad there is a problem with Greece. If more people saw some of their debt numbers they would walk around with a perpetual deuce in their pants.[quote=Shania Twain]dunno[/quote]
Reason I ask is because you make these assumptions that the “market collective knows” – as if it were some wise, all-knowing entity that is never wrong. I disagree. I think the markets are wildly inefficient, which is why I believe in active management and not passive indexing.
Euro is getting smoked. I hate to tell you I was right, but back when Dubai happened, I remember making the call that it wasn’t going to be an isolated incident while you posted pictures of arab men riding on camels. This thing is for real. After Greece gets resolved, all eyes turn on Portugal, then Spain, then Irelan and Italy and LAtvia, then UK… Long USD vs EUR is the trade right now.
hello…Greece means nothing to market
just to CNBC. it’s funny
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain]dunno[/quote]
I hate to tell you I was right, but back when Dubai happened, I remember making the call that it wasn’t going to be an isolated incident while you posted pictures of arab men riding on camels. This thing is for real. After Greece gets resolved, all eyes turn on Portugal, then Spain, then Irelan and Italy and LAtvia, then UK… Long USD vs EUR is the trade right now.[/quote]
spx down 8% after a run from 667 TO 1150 and you’re right?
come on…Friday intra day all you bears get
Latvia. DO NOT MENTION LATVIA.
PLEASE
latvia…omg
(this country debt crap is totally retarded. stupid.)
[quote=Shania Twain]hello…Greece means nothing to market
just to CNBC. it’s funny
[/quote]
Shania, it’s not just Greece. Are you living under a rock? Have
looked at the debt to GDP ratios of some of these European countries?
You can deny it all you want because it doesn’t fit into your bullish
investment thesis, but this is unprecedented and will have global
ramifications.
Ireland is worse than any of them.
Greece does matter. I sat on a fixed income conference earlier this week and learned a new terminology (when discussing this subject): PIIGS (the countries most likely to be in the same situation (like BRIC): Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain
[quote=NYCTrader]
looked at the debt to GDP ratios of some of these European countries?
[/quote]
yes. Take a look at these ratios in 2007 and 1997 and 1987…
western europe are socialist…hello.
missed 2000 bubble
missed 2008 bubble
they wont get me again…Im gonna find next bubble…
so idiots make one up.
leh aint greece
They will restructure
(increase term) of Greece’s debt.
Slap their hand.
countries will tighten belt and lower spending (look at US, even Obama talking about spending cuts)
cycles cycles
non-event
ice put it best a few post’s back.
companies go chap 11
cycles cycle
strong get stronger
weak die
life goes on
extend terms of weaker NATIONs
non-event
hell.
I bet tea party legit.
people sick of govt spending
this is all good
cycles cycle
(dollar rally and carry trade impacting stocks)
greece means nada to stocks
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=NYCTrader]
looked at the debt to GDP ratios of some of these European countries?
[/quote]
yes. Take a look at these ratios in 2007 and 1997 and 1987…
western europe are socialist…hello.
missed 2000 bubble
missed 2008 bubble
they wont get me again…Im gonna find next bubble…
so idiots make one up.
leh aint greece
They will restructure
(increase term) of Greece’s debt.
Slap their hand.
countries will tighten belt and lower spending (look at US, even Obama talking about spending cuts)
cycles cycles
non-event
ice put it best a few post’s back.
companies go chap 11
cycles cycle
strong get stronger
weak die
life goes on
extend terms of weaker NATIONs
non-event
[/quote]
Keep telling yourself it’s a non-event.
[quote=Wet_Blanket]Greece does matter. I sat on a fixed income conference earlier this week and learned a new terminology (when discussing this subject): PIIGS (the countries most likely to be in the same situation (like BRIC): Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain[/quote]
You work in compliance, right?
I’ll give you a pass on not ever hearing the term PIIGS until this week based on the fact that you don’t run money for anyone.
[quote=NYCTrader]
Keep telling yourself it’s a non-event.
[/quote]
market will tell us.
bulls made stand just when they needed too
1044 looks like bottom for u bears
i’m betting new highs
please dont mention Latvia again.
what was freak show’s name on Taxi? i think of him.
where the F is latvia anyway?
Greece's finance minister
Working on budget to save free world.
Latvia’s GDP is 22 MF billion.
22 billion?
That’s Vineland, NJ parks dept.
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=NYCTrader]
Keep telling yourself it’s a non-event.
[/quote]
market will tell us.
bulls made stand just when they needed too
1044 looks like bottom for u bears
i’m betting new highs
please dont mention Latvia again.
what was freak show’s name on Taxi? i think of him.
where the F is latvia anyway?
[/quote]
You’re think of Latka. Andy Kaufman.
[quote=mlgone]
[/quote]
funny
thats the cream of the crop. dont they sell these women online?
good news in last month
earnings rocking
spx $80ish plus
brown win SO big
obama humbled and moving to center
china data rockin
new highs soon.
CNBC: The Greece Crisis.
bawhhahahahahahahhahahahahahha
buy
buy buy buy buy buy buy Stocks go up over time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! As long as you ignore Japan and the original DOW 30. 29 of them already went bye bye and GE is the last to stand, and if GE is identifying where the DOW is going, you are looking at DOW 4000. buy buy buy buy buy buy BRIC suckas! bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahah![quote=howboutshoeshine] buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
Stocks go up over time!!!
As long as you ignore Japan and the original DOW 30. 29 of them already went bye bye and GE is the last to stand, and if GE is identifying where the DOW is going, you are looking at DOW 4000.
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
buy
BRIC suckas!
bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahah![/quote]
check trim tabs
those stats are truly AMAZING since March lows
has NEVER happened before
small guy so MF bearish
The crowd
The peanut investor
The little guy
Is SO scared and bearish
AND YOU ARE ON HIS SIDE.
THINK ABOUT THIS A SECOND, SHINE, NYC ETC.
YOUR WITH THIS GUY?
THE BIGGEST LOSER IN THE HISTORY OF THE PLANET
HE WONT GET CAUGHT THIS TIME.
HE IS OUT FOR THE NEXT BUBBLE
OR SO SCARED FROM 02 AND 08
SINCE THE TULIP MANIA, THIS MF HAS BEEN DEAD WRONG.
ALWAYS. LIKE THE SUN COMING UP
HE GETS CRUSHED
AND YOU’RE WITH HIM.
THIS GUY IS GONNA BE RIGHT?
NOPE
HE GONNA GET KILLED. LIKE HE ALWAYS DOES
YOUR ON THIS GUYS BANDWAGON?
THINK ABOUT YOUR STUPID CLIENTS. THE GUYS ALWAYS WRONG
THE GUYS CALLING DAILY TO BAIL IN MARCH
WHAT ARE THEIR THOUGHTS?
SCARED AND BEARISH…DUH
THIS GUY GONNA BE RIGHT?
NOT A MF CHANCE
DUH
STOCKS ARE SUPPLY AND DEMAND. NO MORE NO LESS
The AAII Survey was mostly Bearish this week, with 51.88% of our members feeling negative. 26.75% were Bullish.
this GUY GONNA BE RIGHT?
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=mlgone]
[/quote]
funny
thats the cream of the crop. dont they sell these women online? [/quote]
Seriously, I love that Austrian girl.
[quote=Shania Twain]good news in last month
earnings rocking
spx $80ish plus
brown win SO big
obama humbled and moving to center
china data rockin
[/quote]
Shania, I’d be careful putting your faith in the data released by a communist regime.
You need to buy American. Put your faith in the Greenback. Go long USD…
One_US_dollar_note_0127_22.jpg1600×710
My best argument.
You're on the same side trade that the average sheep, lemming small investor, always wrong, always get killed is period. If you're right This guy is right.[quote=Shania Twain]My best argument.
You're on the same side trade that the average sheep, lemming small investor, always wrong, always get killed is period. If you're right This guy is right. [/quote]USD vs EUR is the hedge fund trade right now, it's not the dumb money trade.
I will say the latest II report moved in a major way towards the bears. Not what I wanted to see.
The best bullish argument I've heard is that the sovereign debt crisis and impending rate hikes are going to push money out of bonds. Bonds are over-valued right now and while I think stocks are as well, bonds had an insane amount of money poured into them in 2009 (out of the $377.4 billion in net mutual fund inflows for '09, $356.6 billion of it went into bond funds). If this money leaves bond funds where does it go? Cash isn't yielding anything.There is an case to be made that this may go long utility names or other stable, large cap, dividend paying names. Will this be enough to drive the markets higher in the face of all the bad macro data? I don't know.
If you’re right.
So will Mr Small Guy...... Mr. Peanut hates stocks.........[/quote] I told you. faux bulls, all with qualifiers. people are MF scared to death period they will be wrong
[quote=Shania Twain]My best argument.
You're on the same side trade that the average sheep, lemming small investor, always wrong, always get killed is period. If you're right This guy is right. [/quote] Funny thing Shania.....We agree in concept, we just disagree on the feeling out there. I don't see fear and sceptisism. I see greed. I got more calls about why in the hell I got short in January than I've gotten in my entire career. Our experiences are vastly different.[/IMG]
Quote me!!! I’ve locked in a garaunteed gain. The s&p goes through 1103 on good volume I will close out the position at a 2% gain!!!
Shania, you crack me up
[quote=NYCTrader][quote=Shania Twain]
western europe debt "issue" is the stupidest bunch of jedi crap ever. funny
ummmm hello. spain aint leh. duh
dollar rally nicking John Kerry trade.
look at names that got hit.
look at copper, gold etc
dollar bounce done
all good.
took a bunch of froth out
shake out some weak hands
its over
get long
[/quote]
Shania, you want to short the USD vs EUR, be my guest. The more I research this, the more bullish on the USD I become. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 1.20. ECB is backed into a corner. They have to do something about Greece. But as soon as they do that, moral hazard kicks in and suddenly Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Iraly will have their hands out expecting the same (remind anyone of a certain bank/auto bailout in 08-09?) Remember, the Euro is a relatively new currency and this is their first major test. Not sure about you, but I'm betting most investors aren't going to want to hang around and see if the folks in the EU are going to be able to figure this out. Greenback's going to be the safe haven of choice. Get long USD.
[/quote]
Shania Twain/Jennifer Nettles/Sara Evans,
I'm calling you out here.
Good call on the situation in Europe, buddy.
You were dead wrong.
I called Euro 1.20 back on Feb 7th and here we are breaching 1.20.
You still bullish?
yo yo yo
sup brother? not hiding from you
summer is here and there is fighting in the streets
been riding my beast of a motorcycle and enjoying the sunshine!
I pulled some chips off the table in april (documented in my nom de plume.........ummm sara evans.......in the other neighborhood)
we did some heavy buying friday and today (1050-60ish)
perfect
love the action. nice, quick fear fulled smash. perfect.
we will hold some dry powder for maybe a 15-20% (dont see it though)
dude. we down 12 off high and you claiming victory? PALEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
love the fear
perfect
the faux 1000 point melt was PERFECT
add MORE fear (i couldnt have scriped that any better)
i want MORE books on why stocks suck and buy and hold is dead
i want more infomercials on why fix annunities are the only answer
the oil spill make me sad. wrecking the earth. killing things
sucks
market is super low risk here. its your chance to move from the dark side
get long. now
bricks.
peace brother
john_wooden.jpg900×1061
i bet he aint a negative whinny bear.
wooden all in
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