BEARS=Back to your spider holes. new highs
Classy, Shania.
This market is moving lock step with the USD. The Euro mess is far from over and once the dollar continues to strengthen, this rally will fade.
commods,
emg markets
ag
I cant put the orders in for you…
Commodities and Gold are up because of the weak dollar.
Energy and materials are up because of the weak dollar.
Dollar is weak because Greece is “contained.”
I don’t buy it. Europe is in trouble. This isn’t going away.
Seems to me that by making statements like this, you are simply declaring that you are smarter, more clairvoyant, more insightful, whatever, than all the hedge fund managers, and for that matter, smarter than the market.
The market knows. And right now the market is saying yes to U.S. equities, and based on relative strenght, no to International equities. What is, is. Until its not. Don't try to pick the tops and bottoms, right now the SPX hasnt broken the 200 Day MA. When and if it does, look out, but till then go with the trand.One freaking bear…where are all the bears from a week ago?
Shoeshine boy? Waddyasay
[quote=Sportsfreakbob]Seems to me that by making statements like this, you are simply declaring that you are smarter, more clairvoyant, more insightful, whatever, than all the hedge fund managers, and for that matter, smarter than the market.
The market knows. And right now the market is saying yes to U.S. equities, and based on relative strenght, no to International equities. What is, is. Until its not. Don't try to pick the tops and bottoms, right now the SPX hasnt broken the 200 Day MA. When and if it does, look out, but till then go with the trand.[/quote]What is up with some of you people on this board? When a bull makes a statement like I made, nobody says anything. Shania goes on all day making wildly bullish assumptions (which, by the way, I have no problem with) and I've never seen any of you bat an eyelash. But since I'm bearish and put out a view that is counter to the consensus, suddenly you get all indignant and bent out of shape.
For the last time, I am not proclaiming to be smarter, more insightful or clairvoyant than any of you. I simply have a different view on the markets and I'm going to stick with it. Come back at me with a rational argument as to why I'm wrong. But don't get all self-righteous and sensitive. It makes you sound insecure.
Dude, I will not follow the trend. That is how you get murdered. My clients pay me to think, not follow trends. My analysis leads me to believe that the equity markets are mirroring currency moves right now.
I am a staunch, staunch bear at this point in time. I firmly believe this rally is unsustainable. Until I see unemployment go down and consumer spending go up, there is no way to justify the multiples we're seeing. Of course I could be wrong, but that's what things interesting...
[quote=mlgone]“Of course I could be wrong, but that’s what things interesting…”
hmmmmmmmmm. insightfull "Dude, I will not follow the trend. That is how you get murdered" Not if you got on the trend last summer[/quote]
I was long last summer. I was long all of 2009 until November. I was long because the markets were oversold. I believe the markets are now overbought.
Come on man, is that all you got? Tell me why I'm wrong. Why are you bullish?
[quote=mlgone][quote=NYCTrader] [quote=mlgone]“Of course I could be wrong, but that’s what things interesting…”
hmmmmmmmmm. insightfull "Dude, I will not follow the trend. That is how you get murdered" Not if you got on the trend last summer[/quote]
I was long last summer. I was long all of 2009 until November. I was long because the markets were oversold. I believe the markets are now overbought.
Come on man, is that all you got? Tell me why I'm wrong. Why are you bullish?
[/quote] To quote "We tend to use Dow Theory for the strategic side of the portfolio (read: investing). To that point, the “buy signal” registered last summer remains in force until it is negated. Optimistically, we continue to believe that negation is not in the cards. Indeed, with credit spreads back below pre-Lehman bankruptcy levels, we think there is no reason why the downside vacuum created in the S&P
500 (SPX/1075.51) chart by said bankruptcy cannot be filled to the upside, especially given the improving fundamental backdrop, suggesting targets of 1200 – 1250. Driving that sort of pricing action has been explained in past missives where we have exhorted that the typical economic recovery cycle is for corporate profits to boom, driving an inventory rebuild cycle that fosters capital
equipment expenditures. As companies spend money on the capex, people are hired, and then consumption “reboots.” Importantly, hiring and consumption come on the backend of the cycle, NOT the front end."
[/quote]
Are you quoting something you wrote or is this the view of a portfolio manager you follow?
MLgone, when was the last time you were bearish?
Here is a surprise…I am too bullish too often.
But, the charts get me out.
I lost my ego in this a long time and many dollars ago.
If i screw up and name breaks down…i wait for bounce and get out of dodge-period.
I get bearish (cautious) when sentiment gets wacked bullish.
the only time that i was really bearish was early 2000.
when the MF naz DOUBLED from oct 1998 to 2000 I even got the message. Clients bithcing about GE up ONLY 19%.
My pet.com up 145%.
we had a lot of cash and sold tech. it was pretty huge.
now, it probably does not surprise you…bought too early…never saw whatever low was 780ish? coming in 2002.
Although, had emerging market crap in 2002. still own some.
i will never,ever sell in fear. unless a client makes us.
IT HAS NEVER BEEN HARDER TO BE BULLISH. THAT MAKES ME MORE AND MORE CERTAIN LONG IS THE TICKET.
bears are rabid.
the stupidest of clients (not in a bad way) that wanted to mortgage house at top are SURE 3ed bubble coming.
aint gonna happen.
NO WAY this guy is right.
we will rally, I believe, to new year high…and then get kicked in the stones again. Dow 11300, S&P 1200…emerging markets will suck for awhile… stay in commodities and precious metals ex-gold…bonds look awful…
NYCTrader-I never said you were wrong. I never said you were right. And i didnt think i being self righteous.
I simply believe that everything you are saying is stuff that the hedgies, who can move markets faster than you or I, already know. If its correct. In which case they've acted on it. What I believe is that the only thing that matters is what the market says. So be where the relative strength is So don't be so defensive.[quote=Sportsfreakbob] NYCTrader-
So be where the relative strength is
amen, brother
bear:
bull
3732_24_08_09_5_11_58.jpg750×498
ST, you are a freak, but I love your stuff.
[quote=Indyone]One freaking bear…where are all the bears from a week ago?[/quote]
As far as I know, there are 3 bears on this board. Mel and his many aliases, Shoeshine and me. Clearly, I’m in great company.
Indyone-This site is a complete waste of time! It is filed with morons. 471,000 more jobs lost this week. How long can a bullsh*t rally like this last? Why is everyone on this board against gold? Because you are sheep.
I said go short in mid-January. I am correct. I said to buy the US dollar last fall- correct agin I said short gold last fall- correct again Yet, I am the one with credibility doubts????????????? Hard to be a bull It is never HARD to be a bull!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 75% of the time it is correct!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Any idiot can be a bull. As Ben Affleck put it so perfectly once................................ " F*CK it I'm done" BA MORONSI do believe 20 years from now when the DOW is sitting at 10,000 that we will have the answer as to how this bullsh*T ever happened. I’m sure it will involve the govt. and their massive amount of cash. ( oops, I mean my tax dollars ) People on boards lilke this will say “there was no way anyone knew” " It is not my fault client" " I can’t believe this either" “they really tricked us” “that Obama was a scumbag” “PE’s were historically cheap”
Client--" why didn't this idiot read an unemployment report for two years?" " Didn't he see there was not enough buying to facilitate that move?" " didn't he even go outside for those 2 years?" " couldn't he see that the WORLD was falling apart?" " Didn't he realize that everything was STILL bad, including the stock market that was still down 25%" " What rally was he talking about?" " I made no money in a DECADE, couldn't he see the market wsn't healthy" " These guys are a scam and only right if the market somehow goes up" "F*ck them, they made money the entire time"Sorry, man. Looks like Shoeshine is getting a little chippy about all the morons and sheep who disagree with him. I happen to disagree that it is easy to be a bull...there is plenty of sentiment that suggest otherwise. There have been other bears that have been here before preaching doom and gloom...fastcar somes to mind, if you want to search the archives. For the most part, they get frustrated and eventually leave. I don't recall if any ever come back trumpeting they were right or admitting they were wrong other than our shoeshine boy who has clearly never been wrong. I appreciate you hanging around and taking some occasional abuse while sticking to your guns. A little balance in the view is a good thing, even if the message is unappealing.[quote=Indyone]One freaking bear…where are all the bears from a week ago?[/quote]
As far as I know, there are 3 bears on this board. Mel and his many aliases, Shoeshine and me. Clearly, I’m in great company.
[quote=howboutshoeshine]Indyone-This site is a complete waste of time! It is filed with morons. 471,000 more jobs lost this week. How long can a bullsh*t rally like this last? Why is everyone on this board against gold? Because you are sheep.
I said go short in mid-January. I am correct. [/quote] Who did you tell this to in mid-January? Your username was born on Jan 29th.[quote=howboutshoeshine]Indyone-This site is a complete waste of time! It is filed with morons. 471,000 more jobs lost this week. How long can a bullsh*t rally like this last? Why is everyone on this board against gold? Because you are sheep.
I said go short in mid-January. I am correct. I said to buy the US dollar last fall- correct agin I said short gold last fall- correct again Yet, I am the one with credibility doubts????????????? Hard to be a bull It is never HARD to be a bull!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 75% of the time it is correct!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Any idiot can be a bull. As Ben Affleck put it so perfectly once................................ " F*CK it I'm done" BA MORONS [/quote] Did you guys never learn the difference between leading and lagging indicators? I tend to tune it out, my clients are long term, but if you are looking at the small cycle...... "Come on Man!?"Sorry, man. Looks like Shoeshine is getting a little chippy about all the morons and sheep who disagree with him. I happen to disagree that it is easy to be a bull...there is plenty of sentiment that suggest otherwise. There have been other bears that have been here before preaching doom and gloom...fastcar somes to mind, if you want to search the archives. For the most part, they get frustrated and eventually leave. I don't recall if any ever come back trumpeting they were right or admitting they were wrong other than our shoeshine boy who has clearly never been wrong. I appreciate you hanging around and taking some occasional abuse while sticking to your guns. A little balance in the view is a good thing, even if the message is unappealing.[/quote][quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Indyone]One freaking bear…where are all the bears from a week ago?[/quote]
As far as I know, there are 3 bears on this board. Mel and his many aliases, Shoeshine and me. Clearly, I’m in great company.
Hey, thanks man. Yeah, I'm going to stick around. I'm not really interested in picking fights with people. I do like a healthy debate, though. I'm not a perma-bear. I will likely turn bullish on equities again if/when one of two things happen:
1. S&P falls below 900.
2. The jobs picture gets significantly better and consumer spending picks up.
I am looking to go long individual names as they hit my price target. I don't see the point in putting money to work in equities unless you are getting a good value.
You guys need to be careful.
“howboutshoeshine” is not “howaboutshoeshine”.
The “a” is missing from the new guy. The “howaboutshoeshine” guy is intelligent, bearish, and yes, caustic.
howboutshoeshine is something else. I’m not sure if it is someone making fun of shoe, or if it is someone who has the same ideas as shoe. Or maybe he is shoe in disguise.
[quote=Moraen] You guys need to be careful.“howboutshoeshine” is not “howaboutshoeshine”.The “a” is missing from the new guy. The “howaboutshoeshine” guy is intelligent, bearish, and yes, caustic.howboutshoeshine is something else. I’m not sure if it is someone making fun of shoe, or if it is someone who has the same ideas as shoe. Or maybe he is shoe in disguise.
[/quote]
oh man
Im stupid
i thought it was mel
it,these are not mel?
NYC
You’re looking out back window brother.
when you get what you want.
(jobs, consumer blah blah) stocks will be overbought and much higher.
I miss the old mel. acats-a-fukcing-raining mel.
The kinder gentler mel lite is a pussy.
Mel, you’re the RR police’s little bithc
By the time jobs picture gets significantly better, the Dow will be at 3,000,000 (or at least significantly higher than it is now)
[quote=Shania Twain]NYC
You’re looking out back window brother.
when you get what you want.
(jobs, consumer blah blah) stocks will be overbought and much higher.
[/quote]
Sorry Shania, can’t do it. Can’t run with the bulls this time. There will be other times and I will sure to be leading the charge. But right now, I’m with the bears.
Asia is getting crushed right now. Hang Seng down 2.5%. USD is beating the piss out of the Euro. Down to 1.3485. That, my friend, is the trade. Bullish USD v EUR. All the hedgies are running that trade right now and there is stil plenty of room to run. I am riding the Euro down to 1.25. Might go to 1.20, but I don’t want to get too greedy.
Bulls will be under pressure tomorrow. Banks may get beaten down badly. Could be some value out there if you know where to look. I got my sights set on going long one bank name and I might get my target tomorrow.
blah blah blah.
dow futures down a hundy. BIG DEAL
BUY THE MF OPENING PRINT.
LOW OF THE DAY
Ben is the Zen Master.
Master of the universe.
You bears jerking off over the stim exit plan.
The ben-ster is 3 steps ahead of everyone.
The ben-meistro
The benle lama
I love this guy.
dude gets markets.
STONES OF STEEL
he gonna fukc u bears right up the bung hole and you wont know what happened
they probably out of MBS already. before you bears get a chance to whine
[quote=Shania Twain]blah blah blah.
dow futures down a hundy. BIG DEAL
BUY THE MF OPENING PRINT.
LOW OF THE DAY
Ben is the Zen Master.
Master of the universe.
You bears jerking off over the stim exit plan.
The ben-ster is 3 steps ahead of everyone.
The ben-meistro
The benle lama
I love this guy.
dude gets markets.
STONES OF STEEL
he gonna fukc u bears right up the bung hole and you wont know what happened
they probably out of MBS already. before you bears get a chance to whine
[/quote]
Ben and the US Gov need investors to start buying treasuries ASAP. The amount of treasuries going online this year is insane. Failed auction is NOT an option.
[quote=NYCTrader]
Ben and the US Gov need investors to start buying treasuries ASAP. The amount of treasuries going online this year is insane. Failed auction is NOT an option.
[/quote]
blah blah blah
key?
inflation
is none
LABOR MARKET
USE YOUR HEAD
BILLIONS OF NEW PEOPLE WILLING TO WORK FOR NOTHING
WITHOUT INFLATION…GOVIES DEMAND FINE
plus china needs us for many,many more years
use your head…you think China is stupid?
them backing off govies would be totally retarded.
just another shadow you bears jerking off over
duh
Listen to Obama nation
you hear gov of NJ?
somehow…these asshloe GET IT.
a miracle
brown win
tea party
Spending a priority
Listen to new gov of NJ.
A tear almost came to my eye
MY biggest concern was congress and all this spending…that it would get so bad that it was too late
somehow…they seem to get it
pelosi and reid gonna get run out of town
Im proud of the old USA. we aint France brother.
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=NYCTrader]
Ben and the US Gov need investors to start buying treasuries ASAP. The amount of treasuries going online this year is insane. Failed auction is NOT an option.
[/quote]
blah blah blah
key?
inflation
is none
LABOR MARKET
USE YOUR HEAD
BILLIONS OF NEW PEOPLE WILLING TO WORK FOR NOTHING
WITHOUT INFLATION…GOVIES DEMAND FINE
plus china needs us for many,many more years
use your head…you think China is stupid?
them backing off govies would be totally retarded.
just another shadow you bears jerking off over
duh
[/quote]
Do your homework, Shania. China is already dumping treasuries:
Japan eclipses China as top US Treasury holder
(AFP)
– February 16, 2010
WASHINGTON — China's holdings of US Treasury bonds tumbled in December, allowing Japan to take over as the top holder of American government debt, according to Treasury data released Tuesday.
China's bond holdings dropped substantially to 755.4 billion dollars in the last month of December from 789.6 billion in November, said the Treasury's international capital data report.
Japan's holdings increased to 768.8 billion dollars in December from 757.3 billion dollars in November, according to the data.
China had grabbed the top position from Japan in September 2008 and gradually increased its US bond holdings in relation to Tokyo until December last year, Treasury figures showed.
Beijing had expressed fears late last year about the safety of its dollar-linked assets in view of Washington's burgeoning budget deficit and the declining greenback at that time as the American economy struggled to emerge from a brutal recession.
US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner traveled to Beijing in June to reassure Chinese leaders, saying their money is "very safe" despite the US budget deficit, which he pledged to cut.
But Chinese state media expressed opposition to Beijing's policy of buying massive amounts of US debt, saying the value of China's assets could be battered as a result of the global financial crisis.
US-China relations have deteriorated in recent months with problems seen on multiple fronts.
In the latest dispute, President Barack Obama's administration rebuffed Beijing's demand to cancel his meeting this week with the Dalai Lama.
The deepening public spat over Tibet, a row over US arms sales to Taiwan, China's dispute with Google and trade and currency disagreements, come at a key diplomatic moment, as Obama seeks Chinese help to toughen sanctions on Iran.
Britain was the third biggest holder of US Treasury bonds, worth 302.5 billion dollars in December, rising from 277.6 billion in November.
Ben Bernanke will prove to be the biggest jack*ss in history when this is over.
He and "Mr. Change" will not be able to show their faces in public.Big picture- Shania ( Diarrhea) has been wrong for a DECADE
Intermediate term-Diarrea has been WRONG for 6 months Short Term- Diarrea has been WRONG this yearI can’t wait to go to Europe this summer. It’s been forever since the dollar has been worth enough for a European vacation.
Wait until the fall and it will be even betterI can’t wait to go to Europe this summer. It’s been forever since the dollar has been worth enough for a European vacation.
[quote=NYCTrader]
Do your homework, Shania. China is already dumping treasuries: right. 2 mf 20 on a 5 year. 4.60 30 year a bloodbath funny
Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates
Get e-mail updates when this information changes.
Historical Data This data is also available in XML format by clicking on the XML iconFebruary 2010
Date 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr 02/01/10 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.33 0.86 1.41 2.38 3.12 3.68 4.43 4.56 02/02/10 0.04 0.10 0.17 0.33 0.86 1.41 2.37 3.11 3.67 4.42 4.55 02/03/10 0.05 0.10 0.17 0.35 0.88 1.44 2.40 3.16 3.73 4.49 4.62 02/04/10 0.04 0.09 0.16 0.32 0.80 1.34 2.29 3.06 3.62 4.39 4.53 02/05/10 0.03 0.10 0.17 0.31 0.77 1.28 2.23 3.00 3.59 4.36 4.51 02/08/10 0.04 0.12 0.17 0.32 0.79 1.30 2.26 3.03 3.62 4.38 4.52 02/09/10 0.05 0.12 0.18 0.34 0.84 1.37 2.32 3.08 3.67 4.44 4.58 02/10/10 0.06 0.11 0.19 0.38 0.91 1.44 2.39 3.14 3.72 4.51 4.65 02/11/10 0.05 0.11 0.18 0.38 0.91 1.43 2.39 3.15 3.73 4.54 4.69
you're chasing ghosts brother
[quote=Shania Twain][quote=NYCTrader]
Do your homework, Shania. China is already dumping treasuries: right. 2 mf 20 on a 5 year. 4.60 30 year a bloodbath funny[/quote]
Shania, it's all about supply and demand. Think big picture. US is auctioning a record number of treasuries in 2010. China was the largest buyer. They are now reducing their exposure and playing political hardball. Of course the US is not going to China push us around. "f*** you China, we're meeting with the Dalai Lama." But now who is going to buy all our paper? Japan? UK?
Why do you think Obama and the dems are now all of a sudden talking up debt reduction? Think it's a coincidence that it happens at the same time China is balking at buying our paper?
Actually NYC, politics isn’t about supply and demand. Politics is about influence, salience and position. The Chinese government ultimately cares about staying in power. Not about pissing off the U.S. While I don’t really have the time or inclination to do the analysis of whether it is more important for China to keep buying our debt or keep us from seeing the Dalai Lama, the evidence points to this being a bluff.
[quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Shania Twain][quote=NYCTrader]
Shania, it's all about supply and demand. [/quote] UMMMMMMMMM.....EXACTLY 5 year is 2.2% period.
100%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shania- Nov.09' LONG BRIC SHORT US dollar LONG Gold LONG US index Moronic LOSER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 0% credibilityActually NYC, politics isn’t about supply and demand. Politics is about influence, salience and position. The Chinese government ultimately cares about staying in power. Not about pissing off the U.S. While I don’t really have the time or inclination to do the analysis of whether it is more important for China to keep buying our debt or keep us from seeing the Dalai Lama, the evidence points to this being a bluff.
[quote=Moraen]Actually NYC, politics isn’t about supply and demand. Politics is about influence, salience and position. The Chinese government ultimately cares about staying in power. Not about pissing off the U.S. While I don’t really have the time or inclination to do the analysis of whether it is more important for China to keep buying our debt or keep us from seeing the Dalai Lama, the evidence points to this being a bluff.
[/quote]
No, Moraen, I meant treasury supply, not politics. US is issuing record amounts of paper in 2010. In order to keep our debt service at reasonable levels, we need strong demand. China has been one of the more dependable buyers in recent years. Of course, they aren’t going to dump all their treasuries, but by selling part of their position and threatening to not buy as much in the future, they are turning the screws on us and trying to influence our foreign and domestic policy. I agree, it’s probably a bluff, but it’s debatable as to whether or not the US has the upper hand here.
[quote=Shania Twain][quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Shania Twain][quote=NYCTrader]
Shania, it's all about supply and demand. [/quote] UMMMMMMMMM.....EXACTLY 5 year is 2.2% period. [/quote]
Right now it is. But again, sh*t ton of supply is coming online this year. It's Feb. Not December.
ben raises freakin rates…
spx will be up today pricelessNYC - did you say that 1100 was the number? That if the S&P made it to that number that the bulls would run? I can’t find the post.
[quote=Moraen]NYC - did you say that 1100 was the number? That if the S&P made it to that number that the bulls would run? I can’t find the post.
[/quote]
I don’t think I ever made an upside call. The bulls can certainly continue to run here. I don’t have an upside target number on the S&P where I throw in the towel and join the bulls, if that’s what you’re asking.
My view is that equity markets are over valued right now. The multiples we’re seeing cannot be sustained with unemployment and consumer spending where they are. I think fair value on the S&P is 900. I would load up into equities if we breached that number (regardless of macro-economic conditions, because, believe it or not, I believe stocks outperform in the long run, but like Buffett, I will only put my capital at risk when I believe I’m getting excellent value for my investment). I’m buying selectively right now, only when I see individual names hit my conservative price targets. I plan on holding these names for the next 3 years minimum.
Look at buffets BNI buy
look how big this was. even for him. largest buy EVER
16 billion in mf cash, 21 million freakin shares of brook
so
…average retard peanut investor HATES stocks.
scared to death.
idiot no load flipper is in cash
and warren makes a monster bet on stocks?
the retards are going to be right?
“Be greedy when others are fearful” warren b
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Moraen]NYC - did you say that 1100 was the number? That if the S&P made it to that number that the bulls would run? I can’t find the post.
[/quote]
I don’t think I ever made an upside call. The bulls can certainly continue to run here. I don’t have an upside target number on the S&P where I throw in the towel and join the bulls, if that’s what you’re asking.
My view is that equity markets are over valued right now. The multiples we’re seeing cannot be sustained with unemployment and consumer spending where they are. I think fair value on the S&P is 900. I would load up into equities if we breached that number (regardless of macro-economic conditions, because, believe it or not, I believe stocks outperform in the long run, but like Buffett, I will only put my capital at risk when I believe I’m getting excellent value for my investment). I’m buying selectively right now, only when I see individual names hit my conservative price targets. I plan on holding these names for the next 3 years minimum.
[/quote]
You are right. It was shoe. He said 1103 on good volume and the bulls will run.
is shoe mel?
is mel gone?
[quote=Shania Twain] Look at buffets BNI buy
look how big this was. even for him. largest buy EVER
16 billion in mf cash, 21 million freakin shares of brook
so
…average retard peanut investor HATES stocks.
scared to death.
idiot no load flipper is in cash
and warren makes a monster bet on stocks?
the retards are going to be right?
“Be greedy when others are fearful” warren b
[/quote]
Shania, I don’t know if your bullish rants are losing their punch or if I just don’t have the energy today…
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain] Shania, I don’t know if your bullish rants are losing their punch or if I just don’t have the energy today…
[/quote]
haha.
I think you’re breaking down.
Ready to come over to the right side of tracks.
Im like d***s water boarding…
[quote=Shania Twain] [quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Shania Twain] Shania, I don’t know if your bullish rants are losing their punch or if I just don’t have the energy today…
[/quote]
haha.
I think you’re breaking down.
Ready to come over to the right side of tracks.
Im like d***s water boarding…[/quote]
Not after today’s consumer confidence numbers. Ugly, my friend, ugly.
NYC - I like your arguments.
However, February has historically been lower than January nearly every time.
Some other fun facts about February.
- It’s the shortest month
- Divorces filed are at the highest every February (Interestingly enough, Feb. 14 is the highest filing date).
- There are more suicides in February than any other month.
- It’s a depressing month dude.
- Valentine’s Day is in February
- Lincoln and Washington birthdays in February
- Slavery gets talked about more in February
- NAACP revenues spike in February
friday intra-day 1043 low. thats it
Rod Smyth turned bearish today. i like him.
(ps: how did the japs turn so stupid? gezz man)
[quote=Moraen] NYC - I like your arguments.However, February has historically been lower than January nearly every time. Some other fun facts about February.- It’s the shortest month- Divorces filed are at the highest every February (Interestingly enough, Feb. 14 is the highest filing date).- There are more suicides in February than any other month.- It’s a depressing month dude. - Valentine’s Day is in February- Lincoln and Washington birthdays in February- Slavery gets talked about more in February- NAACP revenues spike in February
[/quote]
thats interesting. i wonder why?
OMG…my ex-wives birthday was in Feb!!!
You’re right!!!
wow
I really should be working on work stuff, but I just spent about 20 minutes doing this:
Consumer confidence index statistics:
From 1978 to 2010, the consumer confidence index has fallen from January to February 26 out of 33 times. Which is 78.78%.
Of those 26 times, the drop has been greater than 5% exactly 24 times, or about 90% of the times it dropped.
Of the 7 times where January was the month with lower consumer confidence, 4 were less than 1% lower than February. The remaining three were the years from 1997-1999.
that is interesting
I wonder if it is hope for new year? (in Jan)
resolutions etc?
then MF reality sets in that your life still sucks?
like at the Y. a billion peeps in jan.
then in feb back to normal
[quote=Moraen]I really should be working on work stuff, but I just spent about 20 minutes doing this:
Consumer confidence index statistics:
From 1978 to 2010, the consumer confidence index has fallen from January to February 26 out of 33 times. Which is 78.78%.
Of those 26 times, the drop has been greater than 5% exactly 24 times, or about 90% of the times it dropped.
Of the 7 times where January was the month with lower consumer confidence, 4 were less than 1% lower than February. The remaining three were the years from 1997-1999.
[/quote]
Interesting stuff Moraen. Thanks for the posting this.
Toyota dude doing well…Yikes.
[quote=mlgone]these senators are embarassing. they just sit up there and talk, talk and more talk without understanding sh*T[/quote] I don’t think Bobby Rush can even form complete sentences…and you guys think Sarah Palin is stupid.
[quote=mlgone]these senators are embarassing. they just sit up there and talk, talk and more talk without understanding sh*T[/quote] I don’t think Bobby Rush can even form complete sentences…and you guys think Sarah Palin is stupid.
[quote=NYCTrader]
[quote=Moraen]I really should be working on work stuff, but I just spent about 20 minutes doing this:
Consumer confidence index statistics:
From 1978 to 2010, the consumer confidence index has fallen from January to February 26 out of 33 times. Which is 78.78%.
Of those 26 times, the drop has been greater than 5% exactly 24 times, or about 90% of the times it dropped.
Of the 7 times where January was the month with lower consumer confidence, 4 were less than 1% lower than February. The remaining three were the years from 1997-1999.
[/quote]
Interesting stuff Moraen. Thanks for the posting this.
[/quote]
I’m a big fan of putting things into perspective. You see news
(whether positive or negative) and then try to drill down to see what
the significance is.
Moraen, FYI... I pulled this from The Big Picture blog...
Consumer Confidence fell 10 points last month.
That is a relatively rare event, occurring only 21 times in the 400 months or so the survey began its monthly format in 1977.
James Bianco notes that “Almost every such 10-point drop can be attributed to an unusual market-moving event.”
Stock market performance following these drops are usually poor:
>
-1.31 % on average, OH NO!!!
Stock market performance following these drops are usually poor:
bull. look at those date. some GREAT buy points 11/87 monster rally 90 just before 1st iraq war monster rally 91-92 huge run 2/03 major bottom 10-02 good buy point 3/09 best buy in 70 years man thanks NYC this gets me evn more bullish (east coast blizzard? wtf) I think this should be a GREAT indicator for major BUY points. im going my memory. pull up an chart of spx and screw "next month" (which is stupid.) you buy after this event you beating buy and hold BIG timeYeah, but what if your clients lost 1.31 the next month !!! Look out !!! Sell it all !!!
[quote=Ron 14]Yeah, but what if your clients lost 1.31 the next month !!! Look out !!! Sell it all !!![/quote]
Dude, it’s data. Do whatever you want with it.
[quote=Shania Twain]
Stock market performance following these drops are usually poor:
bull. look at those date. some GREAT buy points 11/87 monster rally 90 just before 1st iraq war monster rally 91-92 huge run 2/03 major bottom 10-02 good buy point 3/09 best buy in 70 years man thanks NYC this gets me evn more bullish (east coast blizzard? wtf) I think this should be a GREAT indicator for major BUY points. im going my memory. pull up an chart of spx and screw "next month" (which is stupid.) you buy after this event you beating buy and hold BIG time [/quote]Shania, I figured you'd have that reaction. I don't think this data isn't terribly useful beyond being kind of interesting to Moraen (based on his post yesterday). I have no idea how Bianco can attribute a big drop in consumer confidence to an east coast blizzard (twice!). I was never really crazy about his research when he was at UBS.
I almost got trapped in NYC during that blizzard. After I changed my train to an earlier Acela, the first thing that crossed my mind was “I better sell all my sh*t!”
[quote=NYCTrader]
Moraen, FYI… I pulled this from The Big Picture blog…
Consumer Confidence fell 10 points last month.
That is a relatively rare event, occurring only 21 times in the 400 months or so the survey began its monthly format in 1977.
James Bianco notes that “Almost every such 10-point drop can be attributed to an unusual market-moving event.”
Stock market performance following these drops are usually poor:
>
[/quote]
It was interesting, I did an overlay of the S&P for the times going back to 78. This data that you put up is cherry-picked (not your fault), but when you put the other years into it, it’s kind of a wash. I meant to post this yesterday, but I figured since it was inconclusive, really nothing new.
I tried to follow the link to Bianco Research, but apparently you have to be a member. It bothers me that it doesn’t have ALL of the data in it.
But it is interesting, nonetheless. Also, what is interesting, is that if you are using natural disasters as market moving events, (East coast blizzard, Katrina, East Coast Blizzard), there is a net gain of 5.9%.
Once again though, correlation does equal causation. In either case.
I will and just did. Used it to clean up after my post lunch dump.[quote=Ron 14]Yeah, but what if your clients lost 1.31 the next month !!! Look out !!! Sell it all !!![/quote]
Dude, it’s data. Do whatever you want with it.
I will and just did. Used it to clean up after my post lunch dump. [/quote][quote=NYCTrader] [quote=Ron 14]Yeah, but what if your clients lost 1.31 the next month !!! Look out !!! Sell it all !!![/quote]
Dude, it’s data. Do whatever you want with it.
Did you sh*t all over your desk? Or do you normally wipe your ass with consumer confidence data?
I did crap my pants. When I saw that data and realized I now had to move the money for 150 households I lost control of all of my bowels. I then had nothing to use besides that data to wipe with.
[quote=Ron 14]
I did crap my pants. When I saw that data and realized I now had to move the money for 150 households I lost control of all of my bowels. I then had nothing to use besides that data to wipe with.
[/quote]Here’s a tip. You may want to invest in some of these for the next time someone posts innocuous consumer confidence data on an anonymous chat board.
I don't have time to go out and buy any. I have to call everyone and tell them we are selling their holdings.
[quote=Ron 14]
I don’t have time to go out and buy any. I have to call everyone and tell them we are selling their holdings.
[/quote]Definitely call them. Showing up at their office or home reeking of sh*t isn’t good for business.
nyc
Today was a monster bullish day.
we are going higher from here
[quote=Shania Twain]nyc
Today was a monster bullish day.
we are going higher from here [/quote]
Very strong afternoon performance by the bulls. Still not sure what prompted it. Curious to see what your boy Art Cashin has to say about it in his morning notes.
so many bad headlines
consumer number ever got to me a bit
europe chapter 11
claims out the butt
obama spending a tril a month
jews eying taking out Abajansbajsnajsgansnganjans
ben raising mf rate…
and all u get is what 1070ish?
so bullish
intra-day 1043… (was that even 10%?)
thats it…
dow futures up 50ish
fri big up day
read Rosenberg…
what is he saying?
Rod Smyth et al got pretty negative all of a sudden.
I respect him.
Cabot (they are awesome) bulls
take the trial on cabot. they are really good. the best in my opinion
their archive articles (like IBD) are awesome
NYC et al:
We have been distant. i just pray you covered your shorts.
1043 all you get. new highs SOON.
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