So what are you buying these days?
For me it’s mostly various shades of corp. and muni bonds, some VA’s, a little managed futures, and soon-to-be fixed annuities which I’ve never done in almost 9 years. The missing chunk is stand-alone equity anything - the bread and butter of most asset allocation models.
What are y'unz doing (Go Steelers!)?Managed Futures… Private REITs… my own quantitative stock picking I put together…
high quality corporate bonds, individual GO muni bonds, fixed annuities. most equity stuff that entails higher risk i am putting into VA’s with an income rider and using the DCA approach. it makes the client feel more comfortable and is a way to get people back into the market for the long run
Im not buying Im selling … options and shorts, doing very well.
That’s been what’s working for sure. In terms of equity funds, I’ve been pleased with how Ivy Asset Strategy has gotten back on track. Probably a lot of it is gold’s comeback, part shorting the market I would assume.
I use IVY AS a lot. Look at their mix right now. It has changed quite a bit the past 6 months. Much more traditional than in the past.
In Canada…looking at and buying Utilities ( we are under different situations that the U.S. ) for security and dividends , a Distillery Stock ( for security , dividends and in this market …everyone will continue to drink ) and some other Notes from Blue Chip Companies.
Indexed Annuities. All you have to do is tape a note on the back of a dog to sell them.
Why is that, because a dog has the required amount of licenses to sell one?
Because people are too tired of falling for the bullsh*t that the Gordon Gekkos of world are pushing on them.Why is that, because a dog has the required amount of licenses to sell one?
[quote=Gordon Gekko]Why is that, because a dog has the required amount of licenses to sell one?
Because people are too tired of falling for the bullsht that the Gordon Gekkos of world are pushing on them. [/quote]
And falling for the bullsht of crooked salesman is what, awesome?!
I bet people thought their money was safe with Bernie Madoff too.
[quote=Gaddock]Im not buying Im selling … options and shorts, doing very well.[/quote]
Gym shorts, golf shorts, or bermuda?
[quote=Moraen] [quote=Crooked Salesman] [quote=Gordon Gekko]Why is that, because a dog has the required amount of licenses to sell one?[/quote]
Because people are too tired of falling for the bullsh*t that the Gordon Gekkos of world are pushing on them. [/quote]
And falling for the bullsh*t of crooked salesman is what, awesome?!
I bet people thought their money was safe with Bernie Madoff too.[/quote] Just think of all those poor people moving their money out of the stock market and putting it in guaranteed annuities. What a tragedy!
Define guaranteed. There is no such thing as a guarantee.
Imagine all of those people who actually use strategies as opposed to products.
It's a thing that can't be offered by the stock market. It's something that I can legally say.Define guaranteed. There is no such thing as a guarantee.
Imagine all of those people who actually use strategies as opposed to products.
Im thinking that fixed annuities are starting to look good for those close to or over 59 1/2. Pretty much a long term tax deffered CD.
Gad…youre right.
Started looking at them last fall. Glad I did in a couple of cases, for sure. Look at Met, Jackson--call the annuity desk. theres a woman in Charlotte that keeps up w/these thing like crazy. Very helpful.The rates are so low though. You can get pretty close to the fixed rates in some index annuities. Or you could take the chance with index-linked interest. I just don't see the benefit of doing a fixed annuity over an index annuity, even if most of it was in the fixed bucket of that.Im thinking that fixed annuities are starting to look good for those close to or over 59 1/2. Pretty much a long term tax deffered CD.
Timber REITS always make me happy in down times.
The biggest difference is the fixed rate of return. You can tell clients and prospects that (1) not only is your principal guaranteed, (2) so is the interest rate. Sure, EIAs may well do better than FAs, but there’s that element of uncertainty that many CD buyers do not want. American National and Allstate will pay 4.25% for 5 years, which beast the pants off CDs. AmNat pays 4.9% for six years. Not bad for some certainty in these times…
For myself, I'm considering an investment in the double-V fund...vodka and Vicodin...ahhh...good times...[quote=Indyone]The biggest difference is the fixed rate of return. You can tell clients and prospects that (1) not only is your principal guaranteed, (2) so is the interest rate. Sure, EIAs may well do better than FAs, but there’s that element of uncertainty that many CD buyers do not want. American National and Allstate will pay 4.25% for 5 years, which beast the pants off CDs. AmNat pays 4.9% for six years. Not bad for some certainty in these times…
For myself, I'm considering an investment in the double-V fund...vodka and Vicodin...ahhh...good times...[/quote] One of the FIA I use has it's fixed bucket at 4%. And they can change the crediting method every year instead of being locked in at 4.25% for 5 years. Not that there's anything wrong with that, I just wouldn't do it with my own money. I guess I'm in the double-S fund...Stella and Strippers.The rates are so low though. You can get pretty close to the fixed rates in some index annuities. Or you could take the chance with index-linked interest. I just don't see the benefit of doing a fixed annuity over an index annuity, even if most of it was in the fixed bucket of that.[/quote] 4% guaranteed for 5 years, no mva, 100% money back guarantee with no fees isn't too shabby.[quote=Gaddock]Im thinking that fixed annuities are starting to look good for those close to or over 59 1/2. Pretty much a long term tax deffered CD.
4% in an EIA isn’t bad at all…it’s just all in what the client wants I guess…CD shoppers want the best FIXED rate so that usually means FAs or CDs unless guarantees aren’t that important.
Isn't that what got all those Sanford clients in trouble?4% in an EIA isn’t bad at all…it’s just all in what the client wants I guess…CD shoppers want the best FIXED rate so that usually means FAs or CDs unless guarantees aren’t that important.
Gold, gold, and more gold. What? With Obama and his socialist agenda!
Pac Life has a fixed annuity, 5 years paying 4.10. Better than you’d do with a cd. When Wachovia was about to go belly up they ran some pretty awesome cd specials. Those funds are coming due here soon so the fixed annuity looks like a good deal.
Gordy, You'd lock into a 5 year surrender for 4%? Why not a corp bond or even muni?
[quote=BondGuy]
Lots and lots of munis. Like the line about Volvos, they're boring but they're good. Been hitting some good yields on all sorts of stuff. There is a lot of good PR bonds out there floating around. The Muni rally hasn't trickled down as much to the single A /BBB paper, still seeing out of whack yields. We're seeing some great CDs as our desk busts up large blocks bought from corporate holders who are looking to cash out or mitigate risk. Good credits in them too! GE preferreds trading like they've already lost the AAA. Is that an opportunity? I haven't bought any lately but who knows? Over in mutual fund land ORNAX is cutting its div. Still the highest div in the land and the fund is positve for the year. As are the other Rochester muni funds. Opco PA is raising it's ridiculously high div. EV national fund is maikng a nice come back, helped buy its higher quality portfolio. [/quote] By GE Preferreds do you mean the $25 par bonds...I bought some for a client the other day...was a 6.25 coupon trading at around $19....about a 7% YTM for AAA bond...geez ....who needs equities ;)Why not munis - it’s ira money
Why not corp - credit risk I don't dislike either of the above. I have found cd clients need to stick with cds. I own a Genworth bond trading somewhere around 50 cents on the dollar. If it was my money, I'd buy Rochester Muni, Loomis Sayles Strategic Income and be done with it.[quote=BondGuy]
Lots and lots of munis. Like the line about Volvos, they’re boring but they’re good. Been hitting some good yields on all sorts of stuff. There is a lot of good PR bonds out there floating around. The Muni rally hasn't trickled down as much to the single A /BBB paper, still seeing out of whack yields. We're seeing some great CDs as our desk busts up large blocks bought from corporate holders who are looking to cash out or mitigate risk. Good credits in them too! GE preferreds trading like they've already lost the AAA. Is that an opportunity? I haven't bought any lately but who knows? Over in mutual fund land ORNAX is cutting its div. Still the highest div in the land and the fund is positve for the year. As are the other Rochester muni funds. Opco PA is raising it's ridiculously high div. EV national fund is maikng a nice come back, helped buy its higher quality portfolio. [/quote]Regarding the Oppy dividend changes....did your wholesaler call you or did I miss an email?
If there was a call, when did it come? Today? Last week?
Bonds, bonds, bonds. What works during deflation? Bonds.
Ivy AS is down 1.something ytd so they seem to have their mojo back. The test for them will be if this oversold market turns back up. The Ivy rep has been saying to look at their hi yield fund which is up 6% ytd. I’ve been nibbling at it, real small hi yield fund.
Ivy AS is down 1.something ytd so they seem to have their mojo back. The test for them will be if this oversold market turns back up. The Ivy rep has been saying to look at their hi yield fund which is up 6% ytd. I’ve been nibbling at it, real small hi yield fund.
I'm curious, Gordon.
Why do you believe that the market is oversold? It seems to be in line with current earnings projections, is it not? (You may in fact be right, but earnings is what I base my evaluations upon.)
More of a feel - the bear camp is bursting at the seams right now. I think tons of people had the November lows pegged and we are sitting right there. We'll either tank/capitulate or rally big time. That being said, I am not loading up the truck. This feels similar to the summer of 02 when "experts" who I previously never heard of came out of the woodwork to profess their doomsday scenarios. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/inv_intel.aspx
[quote=HymanRoth]
[/quote]Regarding the Oppy dividend changes....did your wholesaler call you or did I miss an email?
If there was a call, when did it come? Today? Last week?
[/quote] No email. The internal wholesaler called my assistant a few days ago. However, the Opco mgrs have been talking publically for at least a month about the need to do this. The main issue behind the div cut is that they've been unable to find enough paper to support the current payout. It's a market problem caused be the melt down, not an internal situation within the fund. I suggested they close the fund. They didn't listen.
[quote=Hey Kool-Aid]
[/quote] By GE Preferreds do you mean the $25 par bonds...I bought some for a client the other day...was a 6.25 coupon trading at around $19....about a 7% YTM for AAA bond...geez ....who needs equities ;)[/quote] The GE pref I'm talking about is a 6.5%I have a prospect that owns some of those GE Par Bonds, along with some Morgan Stanleys and some BAC’s. He has been absolutely crushed.
I know he is talking his book, but:
Recs: 1 Bill Gross, the $747 billion bond man, declares the death of equities http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/02/26/bill-gross-the-747-billion-bond-man-declares-the-death-of-equ/Yeah...but he still gets his regular income...and someday is likely to see all of that principal back as well! I'm only buying it for clients who have cd's that they roll over and over in perpituity...they will most certainly never use the principal.I have a prospect that owns some of those GE Par Bonds, along with some Morgan Stanleys and some BAC’s. He has been absolutely crushed.
“Likely” to see principal back wouldn’t sit too well with my cd buyers. I am buying GE common in my own account, but I am just saying…
[quote=Gordon Gekko]I know he is talking his book, but:
Recs: 1 Bill Gross, the $747 billion bond man, declares the death of equities http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/02/26/bill-gross-the-747-billion-bond-man-declares-the-death-of-equ/[/quote] FYI, love Bill Gross. But he declares equities dead during every bear market. I forget the number he used, but during the tech bust, he was calling for like Dow 3000 or something. Gotta give him credit for trying. He sells bonds for god's sake. He's supposed to do that.[quote=B24] [quote=Gordon Gekko]I know he is talking his book, but:
<DIV id=board-post- =“tal”>
Recs: 1 Bill Gross, the $747 billion bond man, declares the death of equities [COLOR=#800080">http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/02/26/bill-gross-the-747-billion-bond-man-declares-the-death-of-equ[/COLOR">/[/quote]
FYI, love Bill Gross. But he declares equities dead during every bear market. I forget the number he used, but during the tech bust, he was calling for like Dow 3000 or something. Gotta give him credit for trying. He sells bonds for god’s sake. He’s supposed to do that.[/quote]
Very true B24, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
I do recall a similar claim near the end of the 2000-2002 bear when Gross had the biggest fund in the universe and was viewed as a genius. I like the fund as a core bond holding. I own it.
GE has a pretty low Z Score. I know its a function of the last 12 months....
BUT Me thinks GE will be downgraded and the triple A paper will suffer. They slashed the dividend today by 75% I hear. If the paper isn't cumulative I would be very weary.How does one track what credit default swaps are trading at? CNBC was saying GE's are trading at some massive price, indicating credit default.
I put an order in for Frontier managed futures today in my own account. I have a little tbt shorting the 20 year treasury. What don't I own?Isn't not being able to price them the big issue all that engaged in that business face?How does one track what credit default swaps are trading at? CNBC was saying GE’s are trading at some massive price, indicating credit default.
The credit default swaps can be priced, they are just insurance contracts kind of like put options on a company’s debt. The dude from the “House of Cards” that turned 1 billion into 6 billion did this by betting against Bear Sterns. Or at least that is my understanding.
I wonder if we are in store for the "Worst March Ever"?I actually just picked up my magic 8 ball, for real. It said "my sources say no" To f-ing funny. I'm taking this thing to my office, it's great. Part of my latest shtick. Hamida Hamida HamidaI wonder if we are in store for the “Worst March Ever”?
What are y’unz doing?
Buying canned food, water and ammunition.
I’ve already got plenty of ammo. I’ll let the suckers buy the rest and take it from them when the times comes.
Managed futures, baby! Frontier Balanced did 19% last year. and at last check was up 2.4% ytd. At this point I am hoping they are real returns and not made up Madoff returns, but who’s to say?
Here's another question - I have a bunch of good paying CDs coming due (thank you Wachovia). Where do you go with this money? Even Warren Buffet says th rest of 0 9will suck in stocks so that is not an option. I am looking at GNMA or Low Duration stuff.
[quote=Gordon Gekko]
Here's another question - I have a bunch of good paying CDs coming due (thank you Wachovia). Where do you go with this money? Even Warren Buffet says th rest of 0 9will suck in stocks so that is not an option. I am looking at GNMA or Low Duration stuff.
[/quote] Comcast , Verizon, Diageo, and Sempra enery 5-9 years Corporates. Interest goes to your favorite fundManaged futures are doing real well(in comparison, what use is up 1.07 through 2/24)
The new CD alternative … fixed annuity. You may consider TIPS. Once the deflation is over we will very likely have hyper inflation.
scotch. lots and lots of scotch.
I got the recent allocation for Ivy Asset Strategy- 40% cash, 30 fixed, 30% equity but 10% short (or something like that). The fund is down maybe 2% ytd which last I checked is beating the market.
Managed futures has to be at a short term peak, it's the only thing I feel comfortable buying.Just buy bonds!!!
Just had some California of the Caribbean bonds at 5.25% at par to 2014 w/2pts.I sold dndn April 2.50 puts for 1.30 two weeks ago. Yes I know it's a dog and you're thinking I'm crazy, However the short interest was 26% I decided to buy them back when the squeeze came and or the short interest got under 20%. Sure enough, could have waited more but made a quick .60 and did 50 to 100 contracts in each account. Cha-ching.
OK ladies … Here is a little risk arbitrage strategy I’ve been employing on stocks that have a ZScore of less than 30 and are in the $5 rangeLike a GM or some such.
It has worked VERY WELL. Sell the put that's just out of the money and short the stock at the same time. Since the companies are on the bankruptcy radar the credits are pretty sizable. Put a stop on the short about 80% of what you sold the put for. If the stock tanks and you get assigned you simply cover the short. Not only making the credit from selling the put but also the amount of money that the stock was away from the strike price when you shorted it. The few times the short has been stopped out there was enough in the 20% remaining credit to buy back the put or just let it ride and expire.Man, my head hurts just reading that.
Fo a relative newcomer, you're a smart fokker when it comes to options strategies...Coming from you that means something, thank you. I hope you use it.
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