Money in Motion

Jul 16, 2008 8:53 pm

So if we’re looking for money in motion, did any of you think to go to your local IndyMac bank and meet and talk with the people getting their money out of there?  There were lines of people just sitting there waiting.

Jul 17, 2008 6:40 pm

And what is it that you would sell all the people in line at IndyMac Bank?

Jul 17, 2008 6:51 pm

Lemonade.  Or I’d give them my card and tell them that if we can deposit their IndyMac check, we aren’t going anywhere.  Or I’d empathize with them and tell them that I help folks get back on track with their finances and investments after events like this.

  But you're with Merrill, aren't you?  So for you, it would kind of be like the blind leading the blind, right?
Jul 17, 2008 7:35 pm

Lemonade is probably your best bet, I think your the same guy that was selling preferreds a couple weeks ago.  Did you jump on any of those 8%-9% yielding Fannie and Freddie’s?

    What firm are you with where you think you can call Merrill the blind?
Jul 17, 2008 7:44 pm

[quote=BullBroker]Lemonade is probably your best bet, I think your the same guy that was selling preferreds a couple weeks ago.  Did you jump on any of those 8%-9% yielding Fannie and Freddie’s?

    What firm are you with where you think you can call Merrill the blind?[/quote]

How does your business work? If I need a bull, why would I be better off calling you when I can just go straight to the ranch and eliminate you from the process?
Jul 17, 2008 9:17 pm

[quote=BullBroker]Lemonade is probably your best bet, I think your the same guy that was selling preferreds a couple weeks ago.  Did you jump on any of those 8%-9% yielding Fannie and Freddie’s?

    What firm are you with where you think you can call Merrill the blind?[/quote]   Don't be all pissy because your company's ratings were just lowered.  Yeah I hold some financial preferreds of solid companies that are guilty by association.  They weren't funding shitty loans nor packaging that garbage, and I wasn't out promoting ARP's (not saying you were, but your company definitely was involved in it).   More and more people like the independent model because their money isn't tied to institutions they hear nothing but negative stuff about in the news.   I don't claim to know anything spectacular, but I do know people aren't trusting MER, C, WB, WM, UBS, and many others.    
Jul 18, 2008 1:06 pm
No, I wasn't out promoting ARP's I had one client that we bought $200,000 in ARP's in mid 2007, and I inherited 1 account from a failed trainee that had $200,000 in an ARP.  Fortunately, for my original client we decided to put the money to work for us in a couple of drilling stocks in late 2007 before the ARP freeze up.  I still have the inherited account in the ARP because I can't sell it, but the guy could really care less he doesn't need the liquidity and he is clipping a failed rate coupon of 4.5%.   I do find it comical that you in hindsight would judge the individuals/companies that were out promoting ARP's.  Sure they all look like idiots now but at the time it was a good tool for short-term cash.  You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.  You can't tell me you of all people would have turned down a higher rate because you could foresee what was about to happen in the credit market, and knew that ARP's would freeze up.  Don't sit there and judge others and pretend like they are bad FA's because of ARP's.   What makes you think that more people are trusting independents right now vs. the MER, C, WB, UBS?  Do you think 95% of the population even knows who independents clear through or where their money is kept when they give it to an independent?  Do you think 95% of the population knows the credit rating of the independent clearing firms?  Do you know?  What's the rating on LPL, Raymond James, ect... bank?   Here is what you are trying to tell me; you are going to take your family on a trip to the Grand Canyon and are driving through some podunk town in Arizona.  The kids are all crying that they are hungry and you see a Mcdonalds up a head.  You start heading towards the Mcdonalds and right across the street from Mcdonalds is "Big Al's Burger World" housed out of a stripmall beside Dollar Tree and Pak n' Save.  These are the only two joints in the town and you have to eat because the kids are screaming.  Which do you choose Dad?  Where do you feel safer eating at?  Sure Big Al's could be great, clean, and keep up with health codes, and Mcdonalds could have the worst kitchen staff in the state but which one do you choose?  Where do you feel safe taking your kids to eat?   Know take that analogy and apply it to our business, but don't think like an Advisor think like a uneducated client.  Sure there are some you let CNBC affect their decision, but there are also some that don't trust Big Al's investment emporium in the park city strip mall.    Are you trying to tell me that the independent channel has found a way to get more SIPC or FDIC coverage for their clients?  Are you telling me anyone in the independent channel has a $600 Million dollar Lloyds of London policy for every single one of their clients like Merrill Lynch?  
Jul 20, 2008 3:10 am

[quote=BullBroker]

.   I do find it comical that you in hindsight would judge the individuals/companies that were out promoting ARP's.  Sure they all look like idiots now but at the time it was a good tool for short-term cash.  You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.  You can't tell me you of all people would have turned down a higher rate because you could foresee what was about to happen in the credit market, and knew that ARP's would freeze up.  Don't sit there and judge others and pretend like they are bad FA's because of ARP's.      [/quote]   Yes I can.  Yields on fixed income are a measurement of risk.  About three weeks before the sh*t hit the fan, another broker in my office was bragging about the millions of $ he was putting in ARS and how I was missing the boat.  I told him that the rates seemed quite high (4.75%, 7 day, AAA) for such a "safe" investment and that something (did not know what) was going on.  It amazes me that so many brokers fail to engage their brain when looking at investment options for their clients.  AAA paying 200 bps over the market with daily liquidity?  Sign me up!!!  Then the broker acts surprised when something goes wrong.  Pathetic.
Jul 20, 2008 3:43 am

Jul 21, 2008 3:30 pm

[quote=Primo][quote=BullBroker]

.   I do find it comical that you in hindsight would judge the individuals/companies that were out promoting ARP's.  Sure they all look like idiots now but at the time it was a good tool for short-term cash.  You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.  You can't tell me you of all people would have turned down a higher rate because you could foresee what was about to happen in the credit market, and knew that ARP's would freeze up.  Don't sit there and judge others and pretend like they are bad FA's because of ARP's.      [/quote]   Yes I can.  Yields on fixed income are a measurement of risk.  About three weeks before the sh*t hit the fan, another broker in my office was bragging about the millions of $ he was putting in ARS and how I was missing the boat.  I told him that the rates seemed quite high (4.75%, 7 day, AAA) for such a "safe" investment and that something (did not know what) was going on.  It amazes me that so many brokers fail to engage their brain when looking at investment options for their clients.  AAA paying 200 bps over the market with daily liquidity?  Sign me up!!!  Then the broker acts surprised when something goes wrong.  Pathetic.[/quote]   Wait, let me guess not only did you avoid the ARP's because you just knew it would blow up.  You also went to cash back in December missing the Jan-Mar lows and put everything back in the market last week catching the 4%+ pop making all your clients millions, oh and you called Indymacbank failing too.  (//rolls eyes//).    You gotta love how 1000's of the brokers and billions of dollars flowed into these things, but somehow in hindsight mind you, you have a bunch chest thumpers coming out saying they knew this was going to happen.  Goldman was truely the only people who saw this coming and played the other side. 
Jul 21, 2008 3:32 pm
joedabrkr:

[quote=BullBroker]And what is it that you would sell all the people in line at IndyMac Bank?[/quote]

MER is cheap…and probably getting cheaper…

  UP 5% + since your post, why don't you go ahead and buy some JAN09 Puts joe since your sure it's getting cheaper. 
Jul 21, 2008 4:28 pm

[quote=BullBroker][quote=Primo][quote=BullBroker]

.   I do find it comical that you in hindsight would judge the individuals/companies that were out promoting ARP's.  Sure they all look like idiots now but at the time it was a good tool for short-term cash.  You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.  You can't tell me you of all people would have turned down a higher rate because you could foresee what was about to happen in the credit market, and knew that ARP's would freeze up.  Don't sit there and judge others and pretend like they are bad FA's because of ARP's.      [/quote]   Yes I can.  Yields on fixed income are a measurement of risk.  About three weeks before the sh*t hit the fan, another broker in my office was bragging about the millions of $ he was putting in ARS and how I was missing the boat.  I told him that the rates seemed quite high (4.75%, 7 day, AAA) for such a "safe" investment and that something (did not know what) was going on.  It amazes me that so many brokers fail to engage their brain when looking at investment options for their clients.  AAA paying 200 bps over the market with daily liquidity?  Sign me up!!!  Then the broker acts surprised when something goes wrong.  Pathetic.[/quote]   Wait, let me guess not only did you avoid the ARP's because you just knew it would blow up.  You also went to cash back in December missing the Jan-Mar lows and put everything back in the market last week catching the 4%+ pop making all your clients millions, oh and you called Indymacbank failing too.  (//rolls eyes//).    You gotta love how 1000's of the brokers and billions of dollars flowed into these things, but somehow in hindsight mind you, you have a bunch chest thumpers coming out saying they knew this was going to happen.  Goldman was truely the only people who saw this coming and played the other side.  [/quote]   Bull, I don't understand your hostility.  Everyone on here is selling their services.  If we don't work for a wirehouse, then right now we have something to sell against.  If some shit hit the fan with indy's, then you wirehouse guys would have something to sell against.   For the guys who did move to cash at the end of 2007, it turned out to be a great move.  I'm sure the rest of us wish we could've as well.  So for those guys, they have something to promote about themselves, and they should use it to their advantage.   It seems like you're a little testy because right now MER is easy for us to jump all over right now.  You will get your shot eventually to jump all over us for something.  But when every little flaw or mis-step made by another company can be exploited to try to win over new clients for my business, well I sure as hell will try to put more bread on my table.   I am sure you would do the same.   All Primo said was that he avoided the ARPs market.  You're blowing the rest out of proportion.  Just let us whose companies haven't gotten involved in bad debt, or had CEO's fired enjoy this time.  You will have yours. 
Jul 21, 2008 10:57 pm

[quote=BullBroker][quote=Primo][quote=BullBroker]

.   I do find it comical that you in hindsight would judge the individuals/companies that were out promoting ARP's.  Sure they all look like idiots now but at the time it was a good tool for short-term cash.  You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.  You can't tell me you of all people would have turned down a higher rate because you could foresee what was about to happen in the credit market, and knew that ARP's would freeze up.  Don't sit there and judge others and pretend like they are bad FA's because of ARP's.      [/quote]   Yes I can.  Yields on fixed income are a measurement of risk.  About three weeks before the sh*t hit the fan, another broker in my office was bragging about the millions of $ he was putting in ARS and how I was missing the boat.  I told him that the rates seemed quite high (4.75%, 7 day, AAA) for such a "safe" investment and that something (did not know what) was going on.  It amazes me that so many brokers fail to engage their brain when looking at investment options for their clients.  AAA paying 200 bps over the market with daily liquidity?  Sign me up!!!  Then the broker acts surprised when something goes wrong.  Pathetic.[/quote]   Wait, let me guess not only did you avoid the ARP's because you just knew it would blow up.  You also went to cash back in December missing the Jan-Mar lows and put everything back in the market last week catching the 4%+ pop making all your clients millions, oh and you called Indymacbank failing too.  (//rolls eyes//).    You gotta love how 1000's of the brokers and billions of dollars flowed into these things, but somehow in hindsight mind you, you have a bunch chest thumpers coming out saying they knew this was going to happen.  Goldman was truely the only people who saw this coming and played the other side.  [/quote]   Go back a read my post again.  I did not know what was going to happen.  I do however understand a 7 day ARS paying 4.75% and AAA rated is more than it seems.  My post was history not hindsight.  There is a considerable difference.
Jul 22, 2008 2:11 pm

[quote=snaggletooth][quote=BullBroker][quote=Primo][quote=BullBroker]

.   I do find it comical that you in hindsight would judge the individuals/companies that were out promoting ARP's.  Sure they all look like idiots now but at the time it was a good tool for short-term cash.  You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.  You can't tell me you of all people would have turned down a higher rate because you could foresee what was about to happen in the credit market, and knew that ARP's would freeze up.  Don't sit there and judge others and pretend like they are bad FA's because of ARP's.      [/quote]   Yes I can.  Yields on fixed income are a measurement of risk.  About three weeks before the sh*t hit the fan, another broker in my office was bragging about the millions of $ he was putting in ARS and how I was missing the boat.  I told him that the rates seemed quite high (4.75%, 7 day, AAA) for such a "safe" investment and that something (did not know what) was going on.  It amazes me that so many brokers fail to engage their brain when looking at investment options for their clients.  AAA paying 200 bps over the market with daily liquidity?  Sign me up!!!  Then the broker acts surprised when something goes wrong.  Pathetic.[/quote]   Wait, let me guess not only did you avoid the ARP's because you just knew it would blow up.  You also went to cash back in December missing the Jan-Mar lows and put everything back in the market last week catching the 4%+ pop making all your clients millions, oh and you called Indymacbank failing too.  (//rolls eyes//).    You gotta love how 1000's of the brokers and billions of dollars flowed into these things, but somehow in hindsight mind you, you have a bunch chest thumpers coming out saying they knew this was going to happen.  Goldman was truely the only people who saw this coming and played the other side.  [/quote]   Bull, I don't understand your hostility.  Everyone on here is selling their services.  If we don't work for a wirehouse, then right now we have something to sell against.  If some shit hit the fan with indy's, then you wirehouse guys would have something to sell against.   For the guys who did move to cash at the end of 2007, it turned out to be a great move.  I'm sure the rest of us wish we could've as well.  So for those guys, they have something to promote about themselves, and they should use it to their advantage.   It seems like you're a little testy because right now MER is easy for us to jump all over right now.  You will get your shot eventually to jump all over us for something.  But when every little flaw or mis-step made by another company can be exploited to try to win over new clients for my business, well I sure as hell will try to put more bread on my table.   I am sure you would do the same.   All Primo said was that he avoided the ARPs market.  You're blowing the rest out of proportion.  Just let us whose companies haven't gotten involved in bad debt, or had CEO's fired enjoy this time.  You will have yours.  [/quote]     I agree with what you have said, but it really doesn't match with the point I was trying to make with the guy stating how he "knew something was going on and avoided the ARP".  What I was saying had nothing to do with Merrill vs. Big Al's Investment House or any other independent.  My argument was why is this guy coming on here acting like he "knew somthing" that the smartest minds in the industry didn't.  It's just a pet peeve of mine for people to claim they knew something in hindsight, course this guy says it's history.    A great investor once said, "Predicting rain doesn't count.  Building an ark does."   -Warren Buffet.   I will give the Goldman guys credit for building the ark, they were on the other side of the ARP trade and made money while everyone else lost their hat.  All the Primo guy did was say "hey you guys there are clouds on the horizon it could rain".  Inless he put money on the opposite side of the trade don't come on here and thump your chest against the guys who lost money.  I am mainly standing up for some very good advisors who have been around 25+ years that are still stuck in these things, as I myself had next to no exposure to ARP's but not because of some foresight on my behalf.  So inless Primo works for Goldman(highly unlikely) he is just claiming rain, and claiming it in hindsight. 
Jul 22, 2008 3:42 pm

[quote=BullBroker]

I agree with what you have said, but it really doesn't match with the point I was trying to make with the guy stating how he "knew something was going on and avoided the ARP".  What I was saying had nothing to do with Merrill vs. Big Al's Investment House or any other independent.  My argument was why is this guy coming on here acting like he "knew somthing" that the smartest minds in the industry didn't.  It's just a pet peeve of mine for people to claim they knew something in hindsight, course this guy says it's history.    A great investor once said, "Predicting rain doesn't count.  Building an ark does."   -Warren Buffet.   I will give the Goldman guys credit for building the ark, they were on the other side of the ARP trade and made money while everyone else lost their hat.  All the Primo guy did was say "hey you guys there are clouds on the horizon it could rain".  Inless he put money on the opposite side of the trade don't come on here and thump your chest against the guys who lost money.  I am mainly standing up for some very good advisors who have been around 25+ years that are still stuck in these things, as I myself had next to no exposure to ARP's but not because of some foresight on my behalf.  So inless Primo works for Goldman(highly unlikely) he is just claiming rain, and claiming it in hindsight.  [/quote]   Sometimes the lack of doing something is the best you can do.  Come on, if Primo said he avoided the ARP's market because he thought the yields were too high, that's a good thing for his clients.  It doesn't mean he has to be on the other side.  There are plenty of other investments to be in.   It's like the tech bubble.  If an advisor avoided loading up on techs, but didn't short the techs, did he not build an ark?  Maybe he was in bonds or sat in cash.  You can't fault someone for not being directly on the other side of something.    It's not always about how much money you make, sometimes it's about how much you don't lose. 
Jul 22, 2008 7:02 pm

[quote=snaggletooth][quote=BullBroker]

I agree with what you have said, but it really doesn't match with the point I was trying to make with the guy stating how he "knew something was going on and avoided the ARP".  What I was saying had nothing to do with Merrill vs. Big Al's Investment House or any other independent.  My argument was why is this guy coming on here acting like he "knew somthing" that the smartest minds in the industry didn't.  It's just a pet peeve of mine for people to claim they knew something in hindsight, course this guy says it's history.    A great investor once said, "Predicting rain doesn't count.  Building an ark does."   -Warren Buffet.   I will give the Goldman guys credit for building the ark, they were on the other side of the ARP trade and made money while everyone else lost their hat.  All the Primo guy did was say "hey you guys there are clouds on the horizon it could rain".  Inless he put money on the opposite side of the trade don't come on here and thump your chest against the guys who lost money.  I am mainly standing up for some very good advisors who have been around 25+ years that are still stuck in these things, as I myself had next to no exposure to ARP's but not because of some foresight on my behalf.  So inless Primo works for Goldman(highly unlikely) he is just claiming rain, and claiming it in hindsight.  [/quote]   Sometimes the lack of doing something is the best you can do.  Come on, if Primo said he avoided the ARP's market because he thought the yields were too high, that's a good thing for his clients.  It doesn't mean he has to be on the other side.  There are plenty of other investments to be in.   It's like the tech bubble.  If an advisor avoided loading up on techs, but didn't short the techs, did he not build an ark?  Maybe he was in bonds or sat in cash.  You can't fault someone for not being directly on the other side of something.    It's not always about how much money you make, sometimes it's about how much you don't lose.  [/quote]   Agreed
Jul 22, 2008 8:37 pm
joedabrkr:

[quote=BullBroker]And what is it that you would sell all the people in line at IndyMac Bank?[/quote]

MER is cheap…and probably getting cheaper…

  Up another 11% again today, I hope you are not in the business of investing other peoples money. 
Jul 22, 2008 9:07 pm

Financials all good today…hope that trend continues, but it seems pretty early to get real fired up…

Jul 22, 2008 11:00 pm

You can’t sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY’s.

    Yes I can.  I also shared the conversation I had with another broker about this very issue before the market freeze up.  I did not know anything beyond my understanding of fixed income, nor did I predict anything, but turns out I called it right.  Deal with it.  As far as you saying that if I did not short the ARS market (how would you do that BTW) it doesn't really count is just plain dumb.
Jul 23, 2008 2:05 pm

[quote=Primo]You can’t sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY’s.

    Yes I can.  I also shared the conversation I had with another broker about this very issue before the market freeze up.  I did not know anything beyond my understanding of fixed income, nor did I predict anything, but turns out I called it right.  Deal with it.  As far as you saying that if I did not short the ARS market (how would you do that BTW) it doesn't really count is just plain dumb.[/quote]   The thing that cracks me up about you is that you say you didn't know it was going to happen, but you knew that historically something that pays 4.5%+ on AAA is too risky.  That had nothing to do with why the market failed, it didn't fail because Closed Ends were paying a higher yield than they could afford and defaulted.  They are actually having to pay an even higher failed rate now than they were before.  Your reasoning for avoiding ARP's was completely wrong, it was basically dumb luck that's why I am calling you out.  Did any of the ARP's default?  Has anyone lost their money?  Has anyone lost a dime of interest?  If the answer was yes then I would agree with your reasoning that the yields were too good to be true.  Unfortunately, for you none of the above are true and the reason you avoided them has nothing to do with why they failed.    Basically you avoided them for the complete wrong reason, by dumb luck you just happened to be right in the call to avoid them, even though you did it for the wrong reason.  Now you are coming on here thumping your chest stating how stupid other brokers were for being in them.  Just try and show me something more ignorant!   I never said you could short them why don't you reread the post and try again.  I stated that Goldman made money on the other side of the trade, not only did they see what was happening they positioned themselves to make money when everyone else was having to do massive writedowns. 
Jul 23, 2008 2:44 pm

[quote=BullBroker][quote=Primo]You can’t sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY’s.

    Yes I can.  I also shared the conversation I had with another broker about this very issue before the market freeze up.  I did not know anything beyond my understanding of fixed income, nor did I predict anything, but turns out I called it right.  Deal with it.  As far as you saying that if I did not short the ARS market (how would you do that BTW) it doesn't really count is just plain dumb.[/quote]   The thing that cracks me up about you is that you say you didn't know it was going to happen, but you knew that historically something that pays 4.5%+ on AAA is too risky.  And C payed 12% on preferreds because they are such a solid company?  No they were forced to pay a high rate because the risk involved is elevated.  Knowing what was going to happen is irrelavant.  The simple fact is, rates on fixed income are a measure of risk.  That is why AAA pays less than BBB.  For AAA to be 200 bps over a 5 year A says something is wrong.  That had nothing to do with why the market failed, it didn't fail because even the increased (even if only perceived) risk was too high for even the elevated rates and everyone stopped buying them.  Fill in your own effecient market statement here because Closed Ends were paying a higher yield than they could afford and defaulted.  They are actually having to pay an even higher failed rate now than they were before.  Your reasoning for avoiding ARP's was completely wrong, it was basically dumb luck guys like you think guys like me get lucky alot that's why I am calling you out.  Did any of the ARP's default? Not yet although Jefferson County Alabama is very close.  Has anyone lost their money?   Has anyone lost a dime of interest?  Just the student loan ARS that have reset at 0%. If the answer was yes then I would agree with your reasoning that the yields were too good to be true.  Unfortunately, for you none of the above are true and the reason you avoided them has nothing to do with why they failed.    Basically you avoided them for the complete wrong reason, by dumb luck you just happened to be right in the call to avoid them, even though you did it for the wrong reason.  Now you are coming on here thumping your chest stating how stupid other brokers were for being in them.  Just try and show me something more ignorant!   I never said you could short you said if I didn't short them then I should shut up.  Again, how would I have accomplished this?  them why don't you reread the post and try again.  I stated that Goldman made money on the other side of the trade, not only did they see what was happening they positioned themselves to make money when everyone else was having to do massive writedowns.  [/quote]   You made the statement "you can't tell me..."  I can.
Jul 23, 2008 6:30 pm

[quote=Primo][quote=BullBroker][quote=Primo]You can’t sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY’s.

    Yes I can.  I also shared the conversation I had with another broker about this very issue before the market freeze up.  I did not know anything beyond my understanding of fixed income, nor did I predict anything, but turns out I called it right.  Deal with it.  As far as you saying that if I did not short the ARS market (how would you do that BTW) it doesn't really count is just plain dumb.[/quote]   The thing that cracks me up about you is that you say you didn't know it was going to happen, but you knew that historically something that pays 4.5%+ on AAA is too risky.  And C payed 12% on preferreds because they are such a solid company?  No they were forced to pay a high rate because the risk involved is elevated.  Knowing what was going to happen is irrelavant.  The simple fact is, rates on fixed income are a measure of risk.  That is why AAA pays less than BBB.  For AAA to be 200 bps over a 5 year A says something is wrong.  That had nothing to do with why the market failed, it didn't fail because even the increased (even if only perceived) risk was too high for even the elevated rates and everyone stopped buying them.  Fill in your own effecient market statement here because Closed Ends were paying a higher yield than they could afford and defaulted.  They are actually having to pay an even higher failed rate now than they were before.  Your reasoning for avoiding ARP's was completely wrong, it was basically dumb luck guys like you think guys like me get lucky alot that's why I am calling you out.  Did any of the ARP's default? Not yet although Jefferson County Alabama is very close.  Has anyone lost their money?   Has anyone lost a dime of interest?  Just the student loan ARS that have reset at 0%. If the answer was yes then I would agree with your reasoning that the yields were too good to be true.  Unfortunately, for you none of the above are true and the reason you avoided them has nothing to do with why they failed.    Basically you avoided them for the complete wrong reason, by dumb luck you just happened to be right in the call to avoid them, even though you did it for the wrong reason.  Now you are coming on here thumping your chest stating how stupid other brokers were for being in them.  Just try and show me something more ignorant!   I never said you could short you said if I didn't short them then I should shut up.  Again, how would I have accomplished this?  them why don't you reread the post and try again.  I stated that Goldman made money on the other side of the trade, not only did they see what was happening they positioned themselves to make money when everyone else was having to do massive writedowns.  [/quote]   You made the statement "you can't tell me..."  I can.[/quote]   You are just scrambling to save face, what is currently going on with the ARP has next to nothing to do with the yields, or the rating of the ARP.  If that was the case they would have all defaulted, they failed and are still paying interest.  You obviously don't even understand what you are talking about.  Quit quoting rates and yields in your argument because those are not why the ARP's failed.    You should probably just drop your argument now because you are just digging your self deeper and deeper into your obvious lack of knowledge about ARP's.  Once again I NEVER said ANYTHING about shorting ARP's that's just ignorant, and I don't know why you keep bringing it up.  I stated that Goldman was on the other side of the trades making a market in the auctions and all of the sudden stopped when they saw what was happening with the credit crisis. 
Jul 23, 2008 6:51 pm

[quote=BullBroker] Quit quoting rates and yields in your argument because those are not why the ARP’s failed. 

 [/quote]   This is getting a little into semantics now, but if Primo avoided the ARP's because the yields were too high for his liking, and the ARP's auctions fail, his reasoning still stands and it worked well for him.   If I buy GM because I think their new line of cars will boost sales and send the stock up, and the stock does go up and I double my money, does it really matter that their new line of cars didn't sell well at all?  It could have been that they got rid of Hummer and cut retiree's benefits, and cut jobs, and sold a plant, which made the stock go up.    For argument's sake, who cares?  I don't think Primo's saying that's why the ARP's failed; he's saying that's why he didn't get into them.
Jul 23, 2008 7:11 pm

Inless he put money on the opposite side of the trade don’t come on here and thump your chest against the guys who lost money.

  Did I read that wrong?  For the third time, how?   Tell me which doesn't fit.   AAA (safe) Daily Liquidity (at the very least on the 7 day reset) Pays 200 bps over Fed O/N rate tax free   My problem is you should at the very least ask why.  We are financial advisors who should act differently than Joe Sixpack.  My comments are based on a specific broker in my office who refused to ask why, just plowed ahead.  I am certain he was not the only one.  Then all these guys take absolutely no responsibility, blaming the entire mess solely on the B/D.  While the B/D does also bear blame, and probably most of it, it was disclosed (at least at my firm) that daily liquidity was provided as a service at the discretion of the firm.  I am the type of person who questions everything and if you can't give me a plausible answer, I am not putting any client money there, so I avoided ARS. Good for me.   You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.   You made a blanket statement that I can refute, so I did.  BTW, please respond to the ARS clients who are now getting 0%.  Seems as if you overlooked that.  And the reason that the ARS market froze up is that B/D's stopped providing liquidity.  Yes it had nothing to do with defaults or credit ratings.  Never said it did.  Didn't say it at the time and am not claiming it now.  Said rates on fixed income were a measurement of risk.  Liquidity risk is still a risk, right?  You don't need to know what the risk is to recognize an efficient market pricing it.   As far as Goldman, well they have access to a bit more information than you or I.  Like how supportive of the auctions B/D's were.  Good for them that they played the right side of the trade.
Jul 23, 2008 8:59 pm

[quote=Primo]Inless he put money on the opposite side of the trade don’t come on here and thump your chest against the guys who lost money.

  Did I read that wrong?  For the third time, how?   Tell me which doesn't fit.   AAA (safe) Daily Liquidity (at the very least on the 7 day reset) Pays 200 bps over Fed O/N rate tax free   My problem is you should at the very least ask why.  We are financial advisors who should act differently than Joe Sixpack.  My comments are based on a specific broker in my office who refused to ask why, just plowed ahead.  I am certain he was not the only one.  Then all these guys take absolutely no responsibility, blaming the entire mess solely on the B/D.  While the B/D does also bear blame, and probably most of it, it was disclosed (at least at my firm) that daily liquidity was provided as a service at the discretion of the firm.  I am the type of person who questions everything and if you can't give me a plausible answer, I am not putting any client money there, so I avoided ARS. Good for me.   You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.   You made a blanket statement that I can refute, so I did.  BTW, please respond to the ARS clients who are now getting 0%.  Seems as if you overlooked that.  And the reason that the ARS market froze up is that B/D's stopped providing liquidity.  Yes it had nothing to do with defaults or credit ratings.  Never said it did.  Didn't say it at the time and am not claiming it now.  Said rates on fixed income were a measurement of risk.  Liquidity risk is still a risk, right?  You don't need to know what the risk is to recognize an efficient market pricing it.   As far as Goldman, well they have access to a bit more information than you or I.  Like how supportive of the auctions B/D's were.  Good for them that they played the right side of the trade.[/quote]   So basically in your alternate Universe, because I myself for the most part avoided ARP's simply because of the fact that I had yet to aquire many clients that had a need for a higher yield with weekly liquidity.  I can come on here and thump my chest because I don't have millions of client assets tied up in ARP's either.  Now what would you think if I came on here running down all the idiot brokers who fell into the ARP trap and bragged about how I didn't touch them?  In your world it doesn't matter why I avoided them just because of the mere fact that I did I have the right to take credit for it and put down those who did.  How much sense does that make? 
Jul 23, 2008 9:25 pm

[quote=BullBroker][quote=Primo]Inless he put money on the opposite side of the trade don’t come on here and thump your chest against the guys who lost money.

  Did I read that wrong?  For the third time, how?   Tell me which doesn't fit.   AAA (safe) Daily Liquidity (at the very least on the 7 day reset) Pays 200 bps over Fed O/N rate tax free   My problem is you should at the very least ask why.  We are financial advisors who should act differently than Joe Sixpack.  My comments are based on a specific broker in my office who refused to ask why, just plowed ahead.  I am certain he was not the only one.  Then all these guys take absolutely no responsibility, blaming the entire mess solely on the B/D.  While the B/D does also bear blame, and probably most of it, it was disclosed (at least at my firm) that daily liquidity was provided as a service at the discretion of the firm.  I am the type of person who questions everything and if you can't give me a plausible answer, I am not putting any client money there, so I avoided ARS. Good for me.   You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.   You made a blanket statement that I can refute, so I did.  BTW, please respond to the ARS clients who are now getting 0%.  Seems as if you overlooked that.  And the reason that the ARS market froze up is that B/D's stopped providing liquidity.  Yes it had nothing to do with defaults or credit ratings.  Never said it did.  Didn't say it at the time and am not claiming it now.  Said rates on fixed income were a measurement of risk.  Liquidity risk is still a risk, right?  You don't need to know what the risk is to recognize an efficient market pricing it.   As far as Goldman, well they have access to a bit more information than you or I.  Like how supportive of the auctions B/D's were.  Good for them that they played the right side of the trade.[/quote]   So basically in your alternate Universe, because I myself for the most part avoided ARP's simply because of the fact that I had yet to aquire many clients (not having the clientele to do an investment doesn't mean you avoided it, just you didn't have the clients to do it, purposefully avoiding an investment that you have the clientele for that turns sour is a good thing). that had a need for a higher yield with weekly liquidity.(they had daily liquidity provided by the B/D.  Are you sure it is I that doesn't understand ARS (which covers ARPs, MARs, and MARPS, use the correct terminology please)  I can come on here and thump my chest (for not having the clientele?, that makes me laugh)  because I don't have millions of client assets tied up in ARP's either.  Now what would you think if I came on here running down all the idiot (I never used the term idiot you did, reread your own posts) brokers who fell into the ARP trap and bragged about how I didn't touch them?  In your world it doesn't matter why I avoided (you didn't avoid them, you didn't have the clientele to buy them.  I avoided them) them just because of the mere fact that I did I have the right to take credit for it and put down those who did.  How much sense does that make?  [/quote]   You can't sit there and tell me that you would turn down 5.5% liquid every 7 days, and some of the municipal yields were returning 8%-9% TEY's.   You made a blanket statement that I can refute, so I did. You cannot dispute this hard as you try to redirect the conversation.  Sounds to me you would have done them if you could.   Inless he put money on the opposite side of the trade don't come on here and thump your chest against the guys who lost money.   Did I read that wrong?  For the third time, how?  Still waiting for a reply.   BTW, please respond to the ARS clients who are now getting 0%.  Seems as if you overlooked that.  Still waiting for a reply.
Jul 24, 2008 3:52 am

Bull - First - full disclosure - i didnt read this entire thread - i skimmed it, its just too freakin long!

With that said, it seems to me, it didnt take a genius to figure out that there was something wrong with ARS when they were yielding 4.5% plus for 7 day maturities when T bills were yielding 1%. I didnt really understand how ARS even worked. One of the brokers in my office came into me and said something like "wow did you see the yields on the ARS 7 day? What a great deal for liquidity needs!" With no understanding of ARS methodolgy, it is not hard to figure out that there was risk in the ARS market, that was SLIGHTLY more than the risk free investment in T Bills.   Its the reason i stayed away. It just didnt make sense. I think its also the point Primo is trying to make. Again, i didnt rread the whole thread, maybe i am misunderstanding, in which case I;m sure I'll get sh*t for it.  
Jul 24, 2008 12:53 pm

Ok this has gotten too far and has gotten off track.  The original point was that primo was thumping his chest because he avoided ARP/ARS’s, ok good for him that’s all well and good, then he went on to take shots at the brokers who did use them.  I tried to defend the brokers whom invested in them, while I don’t think what they did was right I don’t think it’s right “in hindsight” to sit there and judge them.  I also disagree with the reasoning behind primo avoiding ARP/ARS’s because they gave too high a yield, for the rating and liquidity.  In my opinion that is not why the ARP/ARS’s failed in the first place making void the fact that is in fact why you avoided them. 

  And.....I'm done you all say your peace and move on, I just disagree with judging these brokers in hindsight. 
Jul 24, 2008 3:17 pm

I agree this has spun out of control.  You missed my original point.  You made a blanket statement, I refuted it.  The comments (pathetic specifically) in my first post were directed at the broker in my office.  Read the post again.

  What spun this thread so far off track was all the comments after that.  I realize Bull that you are a trainee and this isn't really a fair fight.  Let me point out a few mistakes.   You said I didn't understand the ARS market, while I clearly do.   You said if I didn't short the market I should shut up, which you (unless you working at the institutional trading desk) nor I can do.   You said no one is losing money.  To this point you are correct, although Jefferson County AL is very close to default and others will follow.  More on this later.   You said no one had lost a dime of interest.  Thousands of holders of students loan ARS are getting 0%.  Back to losing money.  Stop thinking like an investor and start thinking like and investment professional.  0% interest on illiquid money is losing purchasing power.  This is what an investment professional is concerned about, not volatility.   ARS=car.  ARPS=Chevy.  MARPS= Ford.  You keep talking about a Ford and calling it a Chevy.  At the very least refer to it as a car.   You refuse to acknowledge that rates on fixed income are a measure of risk, perceived or real.  This is not based on historical data, this is fixed income 101, very basic stuff.   You state that the defaulted rates are higher.  Another blanket statement.  Many funds have max rates based on a benchmark, the S&P/Kenny AA for example.  Many (not all) ARS are back to paying market rates.  Not such a good deal for an illiquid investment.   You said that what was going on with ARS had nothing to do with rates.  Thats like saying your cough has nothing to do with your lung cancer because you have a cold.    Prato, you get my point.  I don't have a problem with anyone who did their due diligence and bought an investment that turned sour.  My issue is those who buy an investment based on Mr. Producer is doing it so should I, then crying afterwards.  Again I was referring specifically to the broker in my own office, although I am sure he is not the only one.
Jul 24, 2008 4:29 pm

Not to add fuel to the fire, but at least you’re not with UBS after their ARS news coming out today…

  Unfortunately, none of my UBS prospects were in the ARS market...   http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B1F56B7B9%2DF6A7%2D44C4%2D9072%2D73EB9B575CA1%7D&siteid=mktw
Jul 24, 2008 4:36 pm

OOOPPS!!  Wonder what their legal defense will be??

Jul 24, 2008 4:39 pm
norway401:

OOOPPS!!  Wonder what their legal defense will be??

  UBS, You & Us, until we start losing money and can use you to bail ourselves out...
Jul 24, 2008 4:44 pm

I was thinking perhaps something along the lines of - No connection with our selling at that particular time But am sure the best of legal firms will be representing them on behalf of UBS.

Bailouts not here in Canada....yet!!!
Jul 24, 2008 5:14 pm

[quote=norway401]

Bailouts not here in Canada....yet!!![/quote]   I'm curious to know, when will you canucks actually become a real country?
Jul 24, 2008 5:18 pm

We are working on that …one can only hope?

Jul 24, 2008 8:35 pm
Good Lord, I was ready to let this go but I have to correct you a little.     [quote=Primo]I agree this has spun out of control.  You missed my original point.  You made a blanket statement, I refuted it.  The comments (pathetic specifically) in my first post were directed at the broker in my office.  Read the post again.   What spun this thread so far off track was all the comments after that.  I realize Bull that you are a trainee and this isn't really a fair fight. Your problem is that you assume too much.  You make assumptions about brokers across the country when you know very little about their individual situation.  You also assume that since I am a trainee that this isn't a fair fight.  Some advice, quit making generic assumptions about people you know nothing about.  Let me point out a few mistakes.   You said I didn't understand the ARS market, while I clearly do.  Your under the impression that rates and yields are the main reason why ARS failed.  While it is a small part it's missing the big picture about what truly happened and that's why I said I don't think you fully understand ARS.   You said if I didn't short the market I should shut up, which you (unless you working at the institutional trading desk) nor I can do. Let me correct you, I never once said you could or should short ARS. I said Goldman was on the other side of the trade meaning they were making a market in the ARS and making profit on the spread.  If you need me to explain how market makers make money on the spread I will.    You said no one is losing money.  To this point you are correct, although Jefferson County AL is very close to default and others will follow.  More on this later.   You said no one had lost a dime of interest.  Thousands of holders of students loan ARS are getting 0%.  Back to losing money.  Stop thinking like an investor and start thinking like and investment professional.  0% interest on illiquid money is losing purchasing power.  This is what an investment professional is concerned about, not volatility.  I didn't realize the student loan ARS's stopped paying interest.  We didn't have the ability to ticket the student loan backed ARS's in our system.  So if this is true I was wrong, and should have done my research before stating otherwise.  ARS=car.  ARPS=Chevy.  MARPS= Ford.  You keep talking about a Ford and calling it a Chevy.  At the very least refer to it as a car.   You refuse to acknowledge that rates on fixed income are a measure of risk, perceived or real.  This is not based on historical data, this is fixed income 101, very basic stuff. Never once stated that rate, was not a measure of risk.  I just stated that the rate was not the reason why the ARS failed, which you are barking like it's the only reason and that is just plain wrong.  In your world if ARS had a lower yield (less risky) this would have never happened, and that would be wrong.  Why you claim to understand the ARS market but can't grasp this point is beyond me.    You state that the defaulted rates are higher.  Another blanket statement.  Many funds have max rates based on a benchmark, the S&P/Kenny AA for example.  Many (not all) ARS are back to paying market rates.  Not such a good deal for an illiquid investment. There are many if not more that are paying failed rates, I read the prospectus for the one I held, they don't have a choice they must pay the failed rate.    You said that what was going on with ARS had nothing to do with rates.  Thats like saying your cough has nothing to do with your lung cancer because you have a cold.   I stated that it had very little to do with rates, and you can't bring proof that it was based on rates because that is just wrong.  It all started when a market maker decided not to make a market in the other side of the trade hence a ripple effect through the entire market.  The market maker didn't come and say "ya know these rates are just too high I don't think I want to participate today".  At least I can admit when I was wrong about the student loans not paying interest rates. Prato, you get my point.  I don't have a problem with anyone who did their due diligence and bought an investment that turned sour.  My issue is those who buy an investment based on Mr. Producer is doing it so should I, then crying afterwards.  Again I was referring specifically to the broker in my own office, although I am sure he is not the only one.[/quote]
Jul 24, 2008 9:21 pm

[quote=BullBroker]

Good Lord, I was ready to let this go but I have to correct you a little.     [quote=Primo]I agree this has spun out of control.  You missed my original point.  You made a blanket statement, I refuted it.  The comments (pathetic specifically) in my first post were directed at the broker in my office.  Read the post again.   What spun this thread so far off track was all the comments after that.  I realize Bull that you are a trainee and this isn't really a fair fight. Your problem is that you assume too much.  You make assumptions about brokers across the country when you know very little about their individual situation.  You also assume that since I am a trainee that this isn't a fair fight.  Some advice, quit making generic assumptions about people you know nothing about.  Let me point out a few mistakes.   You said I didn't understand the ARS market, while I clearly do.  Your under the impression that rates and yields are the main reason why ARS failed.  While it is a small part it's missing the big picture about what truly happened and that's why I said I don't think you fully understand ARS.  That is not what I said at all.  Elevated rates indicate a risk, unable to determine the risk on my own or find someone who could give me a plausible explanation, I avoided ARS.  Your reading comprehension is poor.   You said if I didn't short the market I should shut up, which you (unless you working at the institutional trading desk) nor I can do. Let me correct you, I never once said you could or should short ARS. I said Goldman was on the other side of the trade meaning they were making a market in the ARS and making profit on the spread.  If you need me to explain how market makers make money on the spread I will.  You said if I didn't short the market I should quit thumping my chest.  It is right there in black and white.  This implies that I somehow had the ability to, otherwise why would you have said it?   You said no one is losing money.  To this point you are correct, although Jefferson County AL is very close to default and others will follow.  More on this later.  This is not a secret, in fact if you are following the ARS market, this is quite prominent news.  Why no comment?   You said no one had lost a dime of interest.  Thousands of holders of students loan ARS are getting 0%.  Back to losing money.  Stop thinking like an investor and start thinking like and investment professional.  0% interest on illiquid money is losing purchasing power.  This is what an investment professional is concerned about, not volatility.  I didn't realize the student loan ARS's stopped paying interest.  We didn't have the ability to ticket the student loan backed ARS's in our system.  So if this is true I was wrong, and should have done my research before stating otherwise.  There are many facts about this issue that you do not realize, it is plastered over each of your posts, yet you continue to plow ahead. ARS=car.  ARPS=Chevy.  MARPS= Ford.  You keep talking about a Ford and calling it a Chevy.  At the very least refer to it as a car.  Again no comment?   You refuse to acknowledge that rates on fixed income are a measure of risk, perceived or real.  This is not based on historical data, this is fixed income 101, very basic stuff. Never once stated that rate, was not a measure of risk.  I just stated that the rate was not the reason why the ARS failed, which you are barking like it's the only reason and that is just plain wrong.  In your world if ARS had a lower yield (less risky) this would have never happened, and that would be wrong.  Why you claim to understand the ARS market but can't grasp this point is beyond me.  There you go making connections that do not exist.  I did not nor do I now feel the ARS market failed because of rates, I stated that elevated rates denote risk, and that I avoided the market for this reason.   You state that the defaulted rates are higher.  Another blanket statement.  Many funds have max rates based on a benchmark, the S&P/Kenny AA for example.  Many (not all) ARS are back to paying market rates.  Not such a good deal for an illiquid investment. There are many if not more that are paying failed rates, I read the prospectus for the one I held, they don't have a choice they must pay the failed rate.  Thanks for restating my post.  Point was, you said everyone was clipping higher rates, and there are thousands that are not.   You said that what was going on with ARS had nothing to do with rates.  Thats like saying your cough has nothing to do with your lung cancer because you have a cold.   I stated that it had very little to do with rates, and you can't bring proof that it was based on rates because that is just wrong. Again, rates did not cause the failure of the market, they just predicted a risk in an efficient market.  If ARS were paying the historical 50 bps over the market when it failed you would be right.  However they were paying 200 bps over the market at the time of failure.  Why?  Could it be an efficient market pricing risk correctly?  Funny thing is, you will never know if a market if pricing any instrument correctly until some point in the future.  If you took the information you had at the time and participated or chose to not participate and your decision turns out to be correct, is that not a good thing?  It all started when a market maker decided not to make a market in the other side of the trade hence a ripple effect through the entire market.  The market maker didn't come and say "ya know these rates are just too high I don't think I want to participate today".  At least I can admit when I was wrong about the student loans not paying interest rates. Prato, you get my point.  I don't have a problem with anyone who did their due diligence and bought an investment that turned sour.  My issue is those who buy an investment based on Mr. Producer is doing it so should I, then crying afterwards.  Again I was referring specifically to the broker in my own office, although I am sure he is not the only one. No reply?  It's funny that you only reply to half my posts. [/quote] [/quote]
Jul 24, 2008 9:30 pm

Get ready for the title fight of the night, Primo vs. BullBroker.  This 10 round Registered Rep Rampage will decide the forum champion with full on filibuster flair.  Will we see someone bite off the other’s ear, or will a TKO decide who wins the Binary System Buckle?  Stay tuned…

  We will be making odds and taking bets.  Please deposit all monies into my PayPal account...thank you. 
Jul 24, 2008 9:47 pm

Ice and Snaggle you have got this match right. After the bloodbath we may be all wishing for the days of Saul4Paul. Let the games begin.

Jul 24, 2008 9:49 pm

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!  Someone help me out, am I not clear or is he dense?

Jul 24, 2008 9:59 pm

[quote=Primo]

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!  Someone help me out, am I not clear or is he dense?

[/quote]   After the initial bets thus far, odds makers have Primo heavily favored at 2 to 1 and BullBroker as the longshot at 15 to 1.
Jul 24, 2008 10:22 pm

[quote=snaggletooth][quote=Primo]

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!  Someone help me out, am I not clear or is he dense?

[/quote]   After the initial bets thus far, odds makers have Primo heavily favored at 2 to 1 and BullBroker as the longshot at 15 to 1.[/quote]   Put me down for a dime on myself.
Jul 24, 2008 10:54 pm

[quote=iceco1d]

  Wait...seriously though; what are we betting on? [/quote]   It really doesn't matter so long as you put your money in my PayPal account.
Jul 24, 2008 11:33 pm

[quote=iceco1d]I’m not going to place a bet since I TKO’d you pretty good in the Portfolio Management thread.  OK OK, I’m just joking around.  I’ll take $10 on each…according to Snags, the worst I can do is break even!  

  Wait...seriously though; what are we betting on?  If it's that Primo does, or does not, know about ARS, then I bet he DOES, and I wager my entier net worth.  Primo, if you let me down, then I hate  you.  But I know you won't.    If it's about something else...well then I'm too drunk to place a bet right now.  [/quote]   That is the primary difference between you and BB, we may still disagree, but at least you can carry a conversation.
Jul 25, 2008 12:25 am

[quote=Primo][quote=BullBroker]

Good Lord, I was ready to let this go but I have to correct you a little.     [quote=Primo]I agree this has spun out of control.  You missed my original point.  You made a blanket statement, I refuted it.  The comments (pathetic specifically) in my first post were directed at the broker in my office.  Read the post again.   What spun this thread so far off track was all the comments after that.  I realize Bull that you are a trainee and this isn't really a fair fight. Your problem is that you assume too much.  You make assumptions about brokers across the country when you know very little about their individual situation.  You also assume that since I am a trainee that this isn't a fair fight.  Some advice, quit making generic assumptions about people you know nothing about.  Let me point out a few mistakes.   You said I didn't understand the ARS market, while I clearly do.  Your under the impression that rates and yields are the main reason why ARS failed.  While it is a small part it's missing the big picture about what truly happened and that's why I said I don't think you fully understand ARS.  That is not what I said at all.  Elevated rates indicate a risk, unable to determine the risk on my own or find someone who could give me a plausible explanation, I avoided ARS.  Your reading comprehension is poor.   Original Statement that started it all "I told him that the rates seemed quite high (4.75%, 7 day, AAA) for such a "safe" investment and that something (did not know what) was going on. "   Looks like a bunch of backtracking to me.  You stated that you thought the rates were "quite high" and something was going on.  We ALL KNOW BY NOW that is not why the ARS failed.    Left Hook BullBroker   You said if I didn't short the market I should shut up, which you (unless you working at the institutional trading desk) nor I can do. Let me correct you, I never once said you could or should short ARS. I said Goldman was on the other side of the trade meaning they were making a market in the ARS and making profit on the spread.  If you need me to explain how market makers make money on the spread I will.  You said if I didn't short the market I should quit thumping my chest.  It is right there in black and white.  This implies that I somehow had the ability to, otherwise why would you have said it?   Went back and read every post I never once said anyone had to short the market I said Goldman was on the other side making a market, and making a spread/profit off of it.  Never said anything about shorting anything, it's not in black and white because it was never said.    Right Jab BullBroker   You said no one is losing money.  To this point you are correct, although Jefferson County AL is very close to default and others will follow.  More on this later.  This is not a secret, in fact if you are following the ARS market, this is quite prominent news.  Why no comment?   Dodge punch and back peddle Primo   You said no one had lost a dime of interest.  Thousands of holders of students loan ARS are getting 0%.  Back to losing money.  Stop thinking like an investor and start thinking like and investment professional.  0% interest on illiquid money is losing purchasing power.  This is what an investment professional is concerned about, not volatility.  I didn't realize the student loan ARS's stopped paying interest.  We didn't have the ability to ticket the student loan backed ARS's in our system.  So if this is true I was wrong, and should have done my research before stating otherwise.  There are many facts about this issue that you do not realize, it is plastered over each of your posts, yet you continue to plow ahead.   Right Hook Primo   ARS=car.  ARPS=Chevy.  MARPS= Ford.  You keep talking about a Ford and calling it a Chevy.  At the very least refer to it as a car.  Again no comment?     Nothing to really comment about you are just stating what is obvious to everyone.   Back peddle Primo   You refuse to acknowledge that rates on fixed income are a measure of risk, perceived or real.  This is not based on historical data, this is fixed income 101, very basic stuff. Never once stated that rate, was not a measure of risk.  I just stated that the rate was not the reason why the ARS failed, which you are barking like it's the only reason and that is just plain wrong.  In your world if ARS had a lower yield (less risky) this would have never happened, and that would be wrong.  Why you claim to understand the ARS market but can't grasp this point is beyond me.  There you go making connections that do not exist.  I did not nor do I now feel the ARS market failed because of rates, I stated that elevated rates denote risk, and that I avoided the market for this reason.   Primo running for the ropes turns argument completely around, now states that he does not feel ARS failed because of rates, but still stands at the position that he avoided them because of rates.  Compeletely contridicting his entire argument about how rates somehow was the cause of the ARS collapse.       You state that the defaulted rates are higher.  Another blanket statement.  Many funds have max rates based on a benchmark, the S&P/Kenny AA for example.  Many (not all) ARS are back to paying market rates.  Not such a good deal for an illiquid investment. There are many if not more that are paying failed rates, I read the prospectus for the one I held, they don't have a choice they must pay the failed rate.  Thanks for restating my post.  Point was, you said everyone was clipping higher rates, and there are thousands that are not.   I never said everyone was clipping higher rates, I stated that when the ARS failed people were getting higher rates.  I didn't say everyone, and it's obvious to anyone involved that there are people getting higher rates because of the failure.    You said that what was going on with ARS had nothing to do with rates.  Thats like saying your cough has nothing to do with your lung cancer because you have a cold.   I stated that it had very little to do with rates, and you can't bring proof that it was based on rates because that is just wrong. Again, rates did not cause the failure of the market, they just predicted a risk in an efficient market.  If ARS were paying the historical 50 bps over the market when it failed you would be right.  However they were paying 200 bps over the market at the time of failure.  Why?  Could it be an efficient market pricing risk correctly?  Funny thing is, you will never know if a market if pricing any instrument correctly until some point in the future.  If you took the information you had at the time and participated or chose to not participate and your decision turns out to be correct, is that not a good  thing?   Primo backs away from his original statement that he saw high rates and avoided them.  Running for the ropes waiting for the bell to save him.     It all started when a market maker decided not to make a market in the other side of the trade hence a ripple effect through the entire market.  The market maker didn't come and say "ya know these rates are just too high I don't think I want to participate today".  At least I can admit when I was wrong about the student loans not paying interest rates.   BullBroker takes a jab to the jaw admits he was wrong and is a better man for it.    Prato, you get my point.  I don't have a problem with anyone who did their due diligence and bought an investment that turned sour.  My issue is those who buy an investment based on Mr. Producer is doing it so should I, then crying afterwards.  Again I was referring specifically to the broker in my own office, although I am sure he is not the only one. No reply?  It's funny that you only reply to half my posts.   Primo spends the first 12 rounds arguing about how he saw the high rates and that is why he avoided the ARS.  Comes in the 13 round and claims that he never said it and aknowledged what BullBroker has been saying all along, high rates didn't cause failure in ARS.    Refs decision...................................clear win for the challenger BB, hope you all placed your paypal bets for the underdog/trainee, snaggle will deposit your winnings within 24hours.     [/quote] [/quote] [/quote]
Jul 25, 2008 1:09 am

[quote=BullBroker][quote=Primo][quote=BullBroker]

Good Lord, I was ready to let this go but I have to correct you a little.     [quote=Primo]I agree this has spun out of control.  You missed my original point.  You made a blanket statement, I refuted it.  The comments (pathetic specifically) in my first post were directed at the broker in my office.  Read the post again.   What spun this thread so far off track was all the comments after that.  I realize Bull that you are a trainee and this isn't really a fair fight. Your problem is that you assume too much.  You make assumptions about brokers across the country when you know very little about their individual situation.  You also assume that since I am a trainee that this isn't a fair fight.  Some advice, quit making generic assumptions about people you know nothing about.  Let me point out a few mistakes.   You said I didn't understand the ARS market, while I clearly do.  Your under the impression that rates and yields are the main reason why ARS failed.  While it is a small part it's missing the big picture about what truly happened and that's why I said I don't think you fully understand ARS.  That is not what I said at all.  Elevated rates indicate a risk, unable to determine the risk on my own or find someone who could give me a plausible explanation, I avoided ARS.  Your reading comprehension is poor.   Original Statement that started it all "I told him that the rates seemed quite high (4.75%, 7 day, AAA) for such a "safe" investment and that something (did not know what) was going on. "   Looks like a bunch of backtracking to me.  You stated that you thought the rates were "quite high" and something was going on.  We ALL KNOW BY NOW that is not why the ARS failed.   All Primo said was that he avoided the ARPs market.  You're blowing the rest out of proportion.   Snaggletooth   it didnt take a genius to figure out that there was something wrong with ARS when they were yielding 4.5% plus for 7 day maturities when T bills were yielding 1%.  Pratoman Left Hook BullBroker   Illegal blow!!!, ref deducts one point from BB!!!   You said if I didn't short the market I should shut up, which you (unless you working at the institutional trading desk) nor I can do. Let me correct you, I never once said you could or should short ARS. I said Goldman was on the other side of the trade meaning they were making a market in the ARS and making profit on the spread.  If you need me to explain how market makers make money on the spread I will.  You said if I didn't short the market I should quit thumping my chest.  It is right there in black and white.  This implies that I somehow had the ability to, otherwise why would you have said it?   Went back and read every post I never once said anyone had to short the market I said Goldman was on the other side making a market, and making a spread/profit off of it.  Never said anything about shorting anything, it's not in black and white because it was never said.   Inless he put money on the opposite side of the trade don't come on here and thump your chest against the guys who lost money. Right Jab BullBroker    Phantom punch, BB cannot sustain any type of attack!!  Round 2 to Primo   You said no one is losing money.  To this point you are correct, although Jefferson County AL is very close to default and others will follow.  More on this later.  This is not a secret, in fact if you are following the ARS market, this is quite prominent news.  Why no comment?   Dodge punch and back peddle Primo  BB refuses to engage!!!  Merrill Lynch was the underwriter and was recently fired by Jefferson County.  Massive swelling under BB's right ego.  Round 3 to Primo.   You said no one had lost a dime of interest.  Thousands of holders of students loan ARS are getting 0%.  Back to losing money.  Stop thinking like an investor and start thinking like and investment professional.  0% interest on illiquid money is losing purchasing power.  This is what an investment professional is concerned about, not volatility.  I didn't realize the student loan ARS's stopped paying interest.  We didn't have the ability to ticket the student loan backed ARS's in our system.  So if this is true I was wrong, and should have done my research before stating otherwise.  There are many facts about this issue that you do not realize, it is plastered over each of your posts, yet you continue to plow ahead.   Right Hook Primo and BB goes down!!! Up again at the count of 8, he is taking a tremendous beating.  Not sure if it is heart or stupidity, but he keeps coming forward against the more skilled opponent.  Round 4 to Primo.   ARS=car.  ARPS=Chevy.  MARPS= Ford.  You keep talking about a Ford and calling it a Chevy.  At the very least refer to it as a car.  Again no comment?     Nothing to really comment about you are just stating what is obvious to everyone.   Back peddle Primo   It appears BB has forgotten defense!!!  He is just ignoring the furious lightening quick jabs from Primo.  Unfortunately, ignoring the beating will not make it go away.  Round 5 to Primo.   You refuse to acknowledge that rates on fixed income are a measure of risk, perceived or real.  This is not based on historical data, this is fixed income 101, very basic stuff. Never once stated that rate, was not a measure of risk.  I just stated that the rate was not the reason why the ARS failed, which you are barking like it's the only reason and that is just plain wrong.  In your world if ARS had a lower yield (less risky) this would have never happened, and that would be wrong.  Why you claim to understand the ARS market but can't grasp this point is beyond me.  There you go making connections that do not exist.  I did not nor do I now feel the ARS market failed because of rates, I stated that elevated rates denote risk, and that I avoided the market for this reason.   Primo running for the ropes turns argument completely around, now states that he does not feel ARS failed because of rates, but still stands at the position that he avoided them because of rates.  Compeletely contridicting his entire argument about how rates somehow was the cause of the ARS collapse.   For the first time in boxing history, the fight has been stopped for an instant replay.  BB claims a foul.  We will go to the replay.  No foul occured.  In a strange turn, BB is asked to view the replay himself and point out the foul!!!!  Round 6 to Primo.  Seems the break just gave the more skilled combatant a chance to rest.    I never said higher auction rates CAUSED the freeze up.  But if you insist, cut and paste it.   You state that the defaulted rates are higher.  Another blanket statement.  Many funds have max rates based on a benchmark, the S&P/Kenny AA for example.  Many (not all) ARS are back to paying market rates.  Not such a good deal for an illiquid investment. There are many if not more that are paying failed rates, I read the prospectus for the one I held, they don't have a choice they must pay the failed rate.  Thanks for restating my post.  Point was, you said everyone was clipping higher rates, and there are thousands that are not.   I never said everyone They are actually having to pay an even higher failed rate now than they were before.  was clipping higher rates, I stated that when the ARS failed people were getting higher rates.  I didn't say everyone, and it's obvious to anyone involved that there are people getting higher rates because of the failure.  OK, I added everyone.  Round 7 too close to call.  Based on some ARS going to 0% Round 7 goes to Primo.   You said that what was going on with ARS had nothing to do with rates.  Thats like saying your cough has nothing to do with your lung cancer because you have a cold.   I stated that it had very little to do with rates, and you can't bring proof that it was based on rates because that is just wrong. Again, rates did not cause the failure of the market, they just predicted a risk in an efficient market.  If ARS were paying the historical 50 bps over the market when it failed you would be right.  However they were paying 200 bps over the market at the time of failure.  Why?  Could it be an efficient market pricing risk correctly?  Funny thing is, you will never know if a market if pricing any instrument correctly until some point in the future.  If you took the information you had at the time and participated or chose to not participate and your decision turns out to be correct, is that not a good  thing?   Primo backs away from  repeats his original statement that he saw high rates and avoided them.  It appears BB is Running for the ropes waiting for the bell to save him. Round 8 to Primo.  Wow is this brutal.     It all started when a market maker decided not to make a market in the other side of the trade hence a ripple effect through the entire market.  The market maker didn't come and say "ya know these rates are just too high I don't think I want to participate today".  At least I can admit when I was wrong about the student loans not paying interest rates.   BullBroker takes a jab to the jaw admits he was wrong and is a better man for it.  Primo has just set the record for most punches landed in one fight according to compubox!!!  Round 9 to Primo   Prato, you get my point.  I don't have a problem with anyone who did their due diligence and bought an investment that turned sour.  My issue is those who buy an investment based on Mr. Producer is doing it so should I, then crying afterwards.  Again I was referring specifically to the broker in my own office, although I am sure he is not the only one. No reply?  It's funny that you only reply to half my posts.   Primo spends the first 12 rounds arguing about how he saw the high rates and that is why he avoided the ARS.  Comes in the 13 round and claims that he never said it and aknowledged what BullBroker has been saying all along, high rates didn't cause failure in ARS.    Refs decision...................................clear win for the challenger BB, hope you all placed your paypal bets for the underdog/trainee, snaggle will deposit your winnings within 24hours.  And 10 seconds into the 10th round BB goes down for good.  In the post fight interview Primo reveals that carried the fight from about 15 seconds into the first round.  Right before the fight, he was told that BB was an amatuer with a losing record and he waited until to 10th to knock him out, mainly out of self amusement.  In a shocking revelation, Primo also offered to reimburse those who bet on BB.  So Mrs. BB and John Thain just need to contact Primo's manager and he will send them their 2$ back.     [/quote] [/quote] [/quote] [/quote]
Jul 25, 2008 2:13 am

[quote=Primo][quote=BullBroker][quote=Primo][quote=BullBroker]

Good Lord, I was ready to let this go but I have to correct you a little.     [quote=Primo]I agree this has spun out of control.  You missed my original point.  You made a blanket statement, I refuted it.  The comments (pathetic specifically) in my first post were directed at the broker in my office.  Read the post again.   What spun this thread so far off track was all the comments after that.  I realize Bull that you are a trainee and this isn't really a fair fight. Your problem is that you assume too much.  You make assumptions about brokers across the country when you know very little about their individual situation.  You also assume that since I am a trainee that this isn't a fair fight.  Some advice, quit making generic assumptions about people you know nothing about.  Let me point out a few mistakes.   You said I didn't understand the ARS market, while I clearly do.  Your under the impression that rates and yields are the main reason why ARS failed.  While it is a small part it's missing the big picture about what truly happened and that's why I said I don't think you fully understand ARS.  That is not what I said at all.  Elevated rates indicate a risk, unable to determine the risk on my own or find someone who could give me a plausible explanation, I avoided ARS.  Your reading comprehension is poor.   Original Statement that started it all "I told him that the rates seemed quite high (4.75%, 7 day, AAA) for such a "safe" investment and that something (did not know what) was going on. "   Looks like a bunch of backtracking to me.  You stated that you thought the rates were "quite high" and something was going on.  We ALL KNOW BY NOW that is not why the ARS failed.   All Primo said was that he avoided the ARPs market.  You're blowing the rest out of proportion.   Snaggletooth   it didnt take a genius to figure out that there was something wrong with ARS when they were yielding 4.5% plus for 7 day maturities when T bills were yielding 1%.  Pratoman Left Hook BullBroker   Illegal blow!!!, ref deducts one point from BB!!!   You said if I didn't short the market I should shut up, which you (unless you working at the institutional trading desk) nor I can do. Let me correct you, I never once said you could or should short ARS. I said Goldman was on the other side of the trade meaning they were making a market in the ARS and making profit on the spread.  If you need me to explain how market makers make money on the spread I will.  You said if I didn't short the market I should quit thumping my chest.  It is right there in black and white.  This implies that I somehow had the ability to, otherwise why would you have said it?   Went back and read every post I never once said anyone had to short the market I said Goldman was on the other side making a market, and making a spread/profit off of it.  Never said anything about shorting anything, it's not in black and white because it was never said.   Inless he put money on the opposite side of the trade don't come on here and thump your chest against the guys who lost money. Right Jab BullBroker    Phantom punch, BB cannot sustain any type of attack!!  Round 2 to Primo   You said no one is losing money.  To this point you are correct, although Jefferson County AL is very close to default and others will follow.  More on this later.  This is not a secret, in fact if you are following the ARS market, this is quite prominent news.  Why no comment?   Dodge punch and back peddle Primo  BB refuses to engage!!!  Merrill Lynch was the underwriter and was recently fired by Jefferson County.  Massive swelling under BB's right ego.  Round 3 to Primo.   You said no one had lost a dime of interest.  Thousands of holders of students loan ARS are getting 0%.  Back to losing money.  Stop thinking like an investor and start thinking like and investment professional.  0% interest on illiquid money is losing purchasing power.  This is what an investment professional is concerned about, not volatility.  I didn't realize the student loan ARS's stopped paying interest.  We didn't have the ability to ticket the student loan backed ARS's in our system.  So if this is true I was wrong, and should have done my research before stating otherwise.  There are many facts about this issue that you do not realize, it is plastered over each of your posts, yet you continue to plow ahead.   Right Hook Primo and BB goes down!!! Up again at the count of 8, he is taking a tremendous beating.  Not sure if it is heart or stupidity, but he keeps coming forward against the more skilled opponent.  Round 4 to Primo.   ARS=car.  ARPS=Chevy.  MARPS= Ford.  You keep talking about a Ford and calling it a Chevy.  At the very least refer to it as a car.  Again no comment?     Nothing to really comment about you are just stating what is obvious to everyone.   Back peddle Primo   It appears BB has forgotten defense!!!  He is just ignoring the furious lightening quick jabs from Primo.  Unfortunately, ignoring the beating will not make it go away.  Round 5 to Primo.   You refuse to acknowledge that rates on fixed income are a measure of risk, perceived or real.  This is not based on historical data, this is fixed income 101, very basic stuff. Never once stated that rate, was not a measure of risk.  I just stated that the rate was not the reason why the ARS failed, which you are barking like it's the only reason and that is just plain wrong.  In your world if ARS had a lower yield (less risky) this would have never happened, and that would be wrong.  Why you claim to understand the ARS market but can't grasp this point is beyond me.  There you go making connections that do not exist.  I did not nor do I now feel the ARS market failed because of rates, I stated that elevated rates denote risk, and that I avoided the market for this reason.   Primo running for the ropes turns argument completely around, now states that he does not feel ARS failed because of rates, but still stands at the position that he avoided them because of rates.  Compeletely contridicting his entire argument about how rates somehow was the cause of the ARS collapse.   For the first time in boxing history, the fight has been stopped for an instant replay.  BB claims a foul.  We will go to the replay.  No foul occured.  In a strange turn, BB is asked to view the replay himself and point out the foul!!!!  Round 6 to Primo.  Seems the break just gave the more skilled combatant a chance to rest.    I never said higher auction rates CAUSED the freeze up.  But if you insist, cut and paste it.   You state that the defaulted rates are higher.  Another blanket statement.  Many funds have max rates based on a benchmark, the S&P/Kenny AA for example.  Many (not all) ARS are back to paying market rates.  Not such a good deal for an illiquid investment. There are many if not more that are paying failed rates, I read the prospectus for the one I held, they don't have a choice they must pay the failed rate.  Thanks for restating my post.  Point was, you said everyone was clipping higher rates, and there are thousands that are not.   I never said everyone They are actually having to pay an even higher failed rate now than they were before.  was clipping higher rates, I stated that when the ARS failed people were getting higher rates.  I didn't say everyone, and it's obvious to anyone involved that there are people getting higher rates because of the failure.  OK, I added everyone.  Round 7 too close to call.  Based on some ARS going to 0% Round 7 goes to Primo.   You said that what was going on with ARS had nothing to do with rates.  Thats like saying your cough has nothing to do with your lung cancer because you have a cold.   I stated that it had very little to do with rates, and you can't bring proof that it was based on rates because that is just wrong. Again, rates did not cause the failure of the market, they just predicted a risk in an efficient market.  If ARS were paying the historical 50 bps over the market when it failed you would be right.  However they were paying 200 bps over the market at the time of failure.  Why?  Could it be an efficient market pricing risk correctly?  Funny thing is, you will never know if a market if pricing any instrument correctly until some point in the future.  If you took the information you had at the time and participated or chose to not participate and your decision turns out to be correct, is that not a good  thing?   Primo backs away from  repeats his original statement that he saw high rates and avoided them.  It appears BB is Running for the ropes waiting for the bell to save him. Round 8 to Primo.  Wow is this brutal.     It all started when a market maker decided not to make a market in the other side of the trade hence a ripple effect through the entire market.  The market maker didn't come and say "ya know these rates are just too high I don't think I want to participate today".  At least I can admit when I was wrong about the student loans not paying interest rates.   BullBroker takes a jab to the jaw admits he was wrong and is a better man for it.  Primo has just set the record for most punches landed in one fight according to compubox!!!  Round 9 to Primo   Prato, you get my point.  I don't have a problem with anyone who did their due diligence and bought an investment that turned sour.  My issue is those who buy an investment based on Mr. Producer is doing it so should I, then crying afterwards.  Again I was referring specifically to the broker in my own office, although I am sure he is not the only one. No reply?  It's funny that you only reply to half my posts.   Primo spends the first 12 rounds arguing about how he saw the high rates and that is why he avoided the ARS.  Comes in the 13 round and claims that he never said it and aknowledged what BullBroker has been saying all along, high rates didn't cause failure in ARS.    Refs decision...................................clear win for the challenger BB, hope you all placed your paypal bets for the underdog/trainee, snaggle will deposit your winnings within 24hours.  And 10 seconds into the 10th round BB goes down for good.  In the post fight interview Primo reveals that carried the fight from about 15 seconds into the first round.  Right before the fight, he was told that BB was an amatuer with a losing record and he waited until to 10th to knock him out, mainly out of self amusement.  In a shocking revelation, Primo also offered to reimburse those who bet on BB.  So Mrs. BB and John Thain just need to contact Primo's manager and he will send them their 2$ back.     [/quote] [/quote] [/quote] [/quote] [/quote]   Extremely lame attempt at trying to follow up my boxing rhetoric.  The entire time I was reading Primo's comeback all I could picture was a guy who looks like Don King back peddling around the ring.  Whining in a Mike Tyson like voice "don't hit me", "don't hit me"..  
Jul 25, 2008 2:20 am

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Jul 25, 2008 2:40 am
Primo:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  I agree...let's put this one to bed before we get an ******* involved again.
Jul 25, 2008 10:02 am

Awesome!

There isnt too much that can crack me up at 6 am! Indy's right . Better take the fight to PM's, before one of the trolls show up
Jul 29, 2008 1:46 am

Jul 29, 2008 2:17 am

I wonder if Bull figured out all the financials went up because of short covering, might have something to do with that pesky SEC killing short selling of financials.
Jul 29, 2008 2:33 am
joedabrkr:

[quote=BullBroker][quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker]And what is it that you would sell all the people in line at IndyMac Bank?[/quote]

MER is cheap…and probably getting cheaper…

  Up another 11% again today, I hope you are not in the business of investing other peoples money.  [/quote]

Ahhhh yes...and now we're heading back for fresh lows today...only a few days later.  NOW who looks a little silly? How's yer 401k looking there Bull?  I hope you were diversified!

From the Associated Press for your reading pleasure:

[/quote]   You know the best part about this is?  Of course you don't because you are too dense to look past the headlines.  The best part is that Merrill is not only selling these securities, it's also doing the lending for up to 75% of the assets to the buyer.  Merrill did the same thing with Bloomberg, Merrill approached Bloomberg to sell back their shares to them and lent them the money to buy their shares back.  Not only is Merrill getting these toxic assets off their book, gaining liquiditiy, they are also making money by being the lender in the whole deal.    So go ahead and poke fun at the giant gorilla in the room while you can. 
Jul 29, 2008 5:30 am
BullBroker:

[quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker][quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker]And what is it that you would sell all the people in line at IndyMac Bank?[/quote]

MER is cheap…and probably getting cheaper…

  Up another 11% again today, I hope you are not in the business of investing other peoples money.  [/quote]

Ahhhh yes...and now we're heading back for fresh lows today...only a few days later.  NOW who looks a little silly? How's yer 401k looking there Bull?  I hope you were diversified!

From the Associated Press for your reading pleasure:

[/quote]   You know the best part about this is?  Of course you don't because you are too dense to look past the headlines.  The best part is that Merrill is not only selling these securities, it's also doing the lending for up to 75% of the assets to the buyer.  Merrill did the same thing with Bloomberg, Merrill approached Bloomberg to sell back their shares to them and lent them the money to buy their shares back.  Not only is Merrill getting these toxic assets off their book, gaining liquiditiy, they are also making money by being the lender in the whole deal.    So go ahead and poke fun at the giant gorilla in the room while you can.  [/quote]   FYI, even Mother Merrill is not immune to the possibility of consolidation in this business.  No firm is.  The only constant in this industry is change.
Jul 29, 2008 1:39 pm
snaggletooth:

[quote=BullBroker][quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker][quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker]And what is it that you would sell all the people in line at IndyMac Bank?[/quote]

MER is cheap…and probably getting cheaper…

  Up another 11% again today, I hope you are not in the business of investing other peoples money.  [/quote]

Ahhhh yes...and now we're heading back for fresh lows today...only a few days later.  NOW who looks a little silly? How's yer 401k looking there Bull?  I hope you were diversified!

From the Associated Press for your reading pleasure:

[/quote]   You know the best part about this is?  Of course you don't because you are too dense to look past the headlines.  The best part is that Merrill is not only selling these securities, it's also doing the lending for up to 75% of the assets to the buyer.  Merrill did the same thing with Bloomberg, Merrill approached Bloomberg to sell back their shares to them and lent them the money to buy their shares back.  Not only is Merrill getting these toxic assets off their book, gaining liquiditiy, they are also making money by being the lender in the whole deal.    So go ahead and poke fun at the giant gorilla in the room while you can.  [/quote]   FYI, even Mother Merrill is not immune to the possibility of consolidation in this business.  No firm is.  The only constant in this industry is change.

[/quote]

I'm not naive enough to think it won't ever happen, but for the last 93 years Merrill Lynch has only been one firm.  Correct me if I'm wrong(which I know you guys will) but Merrill Lynch is the only Major Investment firm that has never been bought or sold. 

There is a reason Mother Merrill is scrambling and scraping for cash, there is a big consolidation coming in the financial industry.  Merrill is just insuring that they have enough cash on the books that no one has enough money to come in and buy them.  In my opinion there isn't a company in the U.S. strong enough to buy Merrill Lynch, (maybe GE but they won't, they too are scrambling for cash), I am most worried about a Saudi company stepping up and buying a major firm in the U.S. 
Jul 29, 2008 2:45 pm
BullBroker:

[quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker][quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker]And what is it that you would sell all the people in line at IndyMac Bank?[/quote]

MER is cheap…and probably getting cheaper…

  Up another 11% again today, I hope you are not in the business of investing other peoples money.  [/quote]

Ahhhh yes...and now we're heading back for fresh lows today...only a few days later.  NOW who looks a little silly? How's yer 401k looking there Bull?  I hope you were diversified!

From the Associated Press for your reading pleasure:

[/quote]   You know the best part about this is?  Of course you don't because you are too dense to look past the headlines.  The best part is that Merrill is not only selling these securities, it's also doing the lending for up to 75% of the assets to the buyer.  Merrill did the same thing with Bloomberg, Merrill approached Bloomberg to sell back their shares to them and lent them the money to buy their shares back.  Not only is Merrill getting these toxic assets off their book, gaining liquiditiy, they are also making money by being the lender in the whole deal.    So go ahead and poke fun at the giant gorilla in the room while you can.  [/quote]   So let me see if I am understanding this.  Mer is diluting shareholders interest, selling CDOs at a 78% discount to face value, and paying $2.5billion to Temasek to cover losses in the last stock sale and this is a good thing????  What color is the kool-aid at your firm?  On a side note, please reread your posts before you put them on the board.  You said Mer is lending the money to buy its own assets.  Sending money out to be paid back that same money and collecting an underwriting fee is not how you shore up your balance sheet. 
Jul 29, 2008 3:45 pm

Jul 29, 2008 4:29 pm
Primo:

[quote=BullBroker][quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker][quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker]And what is it that you would sell all the people in line at IndyMac Bank?[/quote]

MER is cheap…and probably getting cheaper…

  Up another 11% again today, I hope you are not in the business of investing other peoples money.  [/quote]

Ahhhh yes...and now we're heading back for fresh lows today...only a few days later.  NOW who looks a little silly? How's yer 401k looking there Bull?  I hope you were diversified!

From the Associated Press for your reading pleasure:

[/quote]   You know the best part about this is?  Of course you don't because you are too dense to look past the headlines.  The best part is that Merrill is not only selling these securities, it's also doing the lending for up to 75% of the assets to the buyer.  Merrill did the same thing with Bloomberg, Merrill approached Bloomberg to sell back their shares to them and lent them the money to buy their shares back.  Not only is Merrill getting these toxic assets off their book, gaining liquiditiy, they are also making money by being the lender in the whole deal.    So go ahead and poke fun at the giant gorilla in the room while you can.  [/quote]   So let me see if I am understanding this.  Mer is diluting shareholders interest, selling CDOs at a 78% discount to face value, and paying $2.5billion to Temasek to cover losses in the last stock sale and this is a good thing????  What color is the kool-aid at your firm?  On a side note, please reread your posts before you put them on the board.  You said Mer is lending the money to buy its own assets.  Sending money out to be paid back that same money and collecting an underwriting fee is not how you shore up your balance sheet.  [/quote]   Just like my uneducated clients you are looking at the headlines, and allowing yourself to be irrational.  What you fail to realize is that Merrill did a non-recourse loan for 75% of the CDO's.  Meaning that while the collateral remains on the assets side of the balance sheet, the actual debt is carried as a liability.    I think the market is obviously smarter than the people on this board, just take a look at financials today.  Merrill made a mistake by taking on such a large portion of CDO's, but are the leaders in the industry by stepping up and taking ownership of the mistake, getting toxic waste off it's balance sheet and gaining liquidity.    I think the market and the industry will take Merrill's lead and follow on this.  Did Merrill lose a lot of money?  Yes.  Is Merrill setting industry standards and cleaning up this mess?  Yes.  Are there a lot of uneducated people out there who will see this as anything other than a significant reduction in problematic exposure?  Absolutely.  Will Primo and Joedafaker come on here touting their obvious pessimistic doom-and-gloom for Merrill?  I would put money on it. 
Jul 29, 2008 4:34 pm

I’ll give you credit for trying to make a silk purse of a sow’s ear, but your time would probably be better spent making your pitch to all those uneducated and irrational clients of yours…

Jul 29, 2008 4:48 pm

Jul 29, 2008 6:27 pm
Indyone:

I’ll give you credit for trying to make a silk purse of a sow’s ear, but your time would probably be better spent making your pitch to all those uneducated and irrational clients of yours…

  Trust me I am, I have yet to lose a client out of all of this.  As long as you don't count the two that deceased this year.    I am an eternal optimist and see opportunity in everything, and I convey that daily to my clients.  While other people are losing their hat in the housing market.  I just purchased a dirt cheap 4 bedroom home, while others are whining about low CD rates, I am locking in a 5.85% mortgage.  While rates are down I am also looking into buying a couple duplexes for use as rental property.  While everyone is flocking to cash I am putting money into the market.  While other advisors are talking about how bad this market is, I look at it as an opportunity to take money from bad advisors.  While others look at everything that is going on with Merrill Lynch as a horrible situation.  I look at it as burning dead grass, it's a necessary evil in order to get green grass to grow again.      I think as a rookie advisor to this industry if you can survive the current market environment, and still hit your hurdles, it will make this career that much easier in the future.    Good luck to all and please continue to doubt Mother Merrill.   
Jul 29, 2008 6:31 pm

[quote=BullBroker] 

Trust me I am, I have yet to lose a client out of all of this.  As long as you don't count the two that deceased this year.      [/quote]   It depends.  Did you kill them or not?  Completely legitimate question.
Sep 13, 2008 7:08 pm

[quote=BullBroker]I’m not naive enough to think it won’t ever happen, but for the last 93 years Merrill Lynch has only been one firm.  Correct me if I’m wrong(which I know you guys will) but Merrill Lynch is the only Major Investment firm that has never been bought or sold. 

  There is a reason Mother Merrill is scrambling and scraping for cash, there is a big consolidation coming in the financial industry.  Merrill is just insuring that they have enough cash on the books that no one has enough money to come in and buy them.  In my opinion there isn't a company in the U.S. strong enough to buy Merrill Lynch, (maybe GE but they won't, they too are scrambling for cash), I am most worried about a Saudi company stepping up and buying a major firm in the U.S. [/quote]   BullBroker, thought I'd dig this up to see what your current take on MER is.  It isn't good that CNBC runs their stock price continuously across the top of the screen with LEH and WAMU.   When the shorts have nothing more of LEH to short, they'll keep shorting MER.  Maybe the SEC will come out with the no naked shorting financials again, or only shorting on an uptick rule.  I have no idea why that rule was ever taken away.   Have you personally seen any MER clients leaving because of the bad press and situation, like that $100MM client?
Dec 15, 2010 2:27 am

I miss the old days when members of a broker's forum had heated arguments about business related matters.  Wonder whatever happened to BullBroker.

Dec 16, 2010 2:48 am

[quote=BullBroker][quote=joedabrkr] [quote=BullBroker]And what is it that you would sell all the people in line at IndyMac Bank?[/quote]

MER is cheap....and probably getting cheaper....
[/quote]

 UP 5% + since your post, why don't you go ahead and buy some JAN09 Puts joe since your sure it's getting cheaper

[/quote]

Best advice ever on this forum.

Mar 18, 2015 11:03 am

One suggestion I have is to read the business section of your local newspaper. Subscribe to, and read professional magazines in selected fields, i.e. architects, attorneys, medical, etc. There’s always news of “people on the move” in those places. Can’t afford to subscribe? Go to your local library. They should have all the current publications available.