Henry Paulson

Sep 23, 2008 4:12 pm

Does anyone else think very highly of Henry Paulson through all of this?  I, for one, hope he stays on board with the new presidency.  I'm not too sure anyone else would do as good of a job.

Sep 23, 2008 5:14 pm

Good points.  With regards to Paulson, I think it’s crazy the tax-payers are up in arms about the Treasury’s plan. 

  The way I read into Paulson and Bernanke's remarks over the last week, they were scared shitless by what was going on.  They have all the special computers that show many things we'll never see.  I believe they saw something that with these credit markets freezing up that sent chills down their spines.   This Senate Banking Committee is really slowing this plan down.  Would the Treasury and Fed really use their last tool in the toolbox if it weren't dire?   It seems the politicians are trying to represent the public's "best interest", but they and the public don't really get it.  
Sep 23, 2008 5:20 pm

my only problem with this whole plan is that he wants discretionary authority to do whatever he wants under almost any situation.  this hearing is him basically telling congress that he needs to be able to do anything, with no rules, but that he is doing it for the good of the common man.

how on earth is anyone going to de-rail this plan, right before an election?  try campaigning while being branded the party which killed the economy.  i feel everything right now is your basic grandstanding and camera chasing.
Sep 23, 2008 5:29 pm

[quote=theironhorse]my only problem with this whole plan is that he wants discretionary authority to do whatever he wants under almost any situation.  this hearing is him basically telling congress that he needs to be able to do anything, with no rules, but that he is doing it for the good of the common man.

how on earth is anyone going to de-rail this plan, right before an election?  try campaigning while being branded the party which killed the economy.  i feel everything right now is your basic grandstanding and camera chasing.[/quote]   I do agree with you to a degree regarding oversight.  I think ultimately his discretionary authority will be tamed, but right now he needs it because no one knows wtf is going on.  Not even Paulson knows what will pop up that he will have to take care of.   Ultimately this whole meltdown will provide Paulson a great book to write years down the road that may be worth the read just to find out how close to the brink we are.
Sep 23, 2008 7:13 pm

I absolutely agree that there’s something they’re not sharing with us.  Regardless, is it safe to say all those months of dropping rates and freeing up cash put us in a worse situation? How do we not see giants like Merrill and Lehman go under after a Bear Sterns? The timing of this plan is curious.

  I don't know.
Sep 23, 2008 7:18 pm

If Obama gets in it will probably be fellow Goldman Sachs alum and CEO John Corzine. Corzine is just a hair short of being a total ass as governor of NJ, but you can’t argue with his resume. He’s aloof and out of touch which makes him a perfect treasury secretary.  He played a starring role in the bailout of LT Capital. Which for those of you who don’t know was last big bailout. Of course dwarfed by today’s mess. But for 1998 it was a mess enough, sank the bond markets as well as the stock market.  Our IB system did a slow roll to max bank and a slow roll back to center. Scary enough.

  The people of NJ can only hope that Corzine gets the nod to go to DC.
Sep 23, 2008 8:24 pm

This 700 Billion dollar bailout package is a lot of money to manage.  I think Paulson’s doing fine.  It’s good to have someone out there taking this on his shoulders.  I don’t know about Bernanke, who I think is slow to react.  Problem is Bernanke’s hands are tied because of the weak dollar.

Sep 23, 2008 8:28 pm

Because of the weak dollar? Buddy how do you know he doesn’t want a weak dollar?

Sep 23, 2008 9:35 pm
anabuhabkuss:

Because of the weak dollar? Buddy how do you know he doesn’t want a weak dollar?

  Exports are quite possibly the only thing holding this economy afloat.
Sep 24, 2008 12:52 am

Say what you want about Paulson. He is the only one out there providing leadership. The Prez sure isnt providing it. And i cant believe that Congress would be so irresponsible to not pass this thing.

Sep 24, 2008 4:36 am

This kind of stuff scares me the most: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27yitK32ds [Rep Kapture from Ohio]

Not to mention the populist backlash going on: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/only_28_support_federal_bailout_plan

Also, I don’t know if anyone caught the article on Paulson in this month’s Fortune, but it was a nice one.  On his 39th wedding anniversary (right after fannie/freddie take-over), he was supposed to take his wife out for dinner, but he got back too late, and she cooked him an omelet instead.  I mean, give the guy a break, he gives most of his money to charity, he’s one of the few accessible people in washington, and he’s one of the very few people actually trying to get real work done in congress. 

Sep 24, 2008 5:03 am
gvf:

This kind of stuff scares me the most: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27yitK32ds [Rep Kapture from Ohio]

Not to mention the populist backlash going on: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/only_28_support_federal_bailout_plan

Also, I don’t know if anyone caught the article on Paulson in this month’s Fortune, but it was a nice one.  On his 39th wedding anniversary (right after fannie/freddie take-over), he was supposed to take his wife out for dinner, but he got back too late, and she cooked him an omelet instead.  I mean, give the guy a break, he gives most of his money to charity, he’s one of the few accessible people in washington, and he’s one of the very few people actually trying to get real work done in congress. 

  I'd be willing to get rid of both Obama and McCain for a Paulson/Bloomberg ticket at this point.
Sep 24, 2008 10:46 am

Paulson & Bernanke have it wrong. they need to expand their plan to include GM, Ford and Chrysler. Also they need to throw in all of the airlines and as long as they are at it why not include all of the old midwest steel manufacturers like J&L steel. What about those poor home builders? If the taxpaper is footing the bill for a community bailout why is Paulson holding back??? What the hell let’s just bailout every commercial entity.

Sep 24, 2008 5:58 pm

Sep 24, 2008 6:11 pm

Ice …the theory makes sense BUT the reality is that using GM as the example. You can bet your  that both the U.S. Government , Canadian Government , State/Provincial Governments as well as Municipal Governments would be over the failure of G.M like " Stink on a monkey ". Job losses , lost tax revenues , collapses of municipal governments. Remember Chrysler our collective governments poured a fortune in to saving the company.

Sep 24, 2008 6:38 pm

…and actually made money selling options/warrants received from Chrysler several years later.  Chrysler also paid off the loans early.  End result was no cost to the taxpayer…actually a net benefit.

  This is the point that main street is missing.  The net cost will be nowhere near $700 billion, unless the estimates of what is needed is way off.
Sep 24, 2008 6:42 pm

[quote=Indyone]…and actually made money selling options/warrants received from Chrysler several years later.  Chrysler also paid off the loans early.  End result was no cost to the taxpayer…actually a net benefit.

  This is the point that main street is missing.  The net cost will be nowhere near $700 billion, unless the estimates of what is needed is way off.[/quote]   And Bill Gross said he'd manage part of it for no charge.  Great American.
Sep 24, 2008 6:43 pm

Indy , the last part is what I think is the concern …the estimates are way off. It seems that everyone has not been able to get to the approximate number. Is it three trillion or what???

Sep 24, 2008 7:25 pm

I heard it’s “or what”

  And that's the problem.
Sep 24, 2008 7:29 pm

Bond Guy …and is the point in this specific situation. OR WHAT In two months do they come back and say " Geez we are off by XXXX and now need more money "?

Sep 24, 2008 8:43 pm

[quote=norway401]Indy , the last part is what I think is the concern …the estimates are way off. It seems that everyone has not been able to get to the approximate number. Is it three trillion or what???[/quote] I have a hard time believing that many of the loans/financial instruments aren’t trading well below what they are actually worth, so I think the number proposed, if anything, is probably more than enough.  Unless I heard our conference call folks wrong the other day, the worst of the worst, option arms are trading as a group at 60 cents on the dollar.  This group has roughly 20% delinquency/non-pay/foreclosure.  If that entire 20% goes into foreclosure and the banks/government realize exactly zero on all the foreclosed real estate, the pool is still worth close to 80 cents on the dollar today.  No way do I think the pool is worth less than 60 cents on the dollar it’s indicated at, but who knows…I’m just one man’s opinion on the matter.

  My expectation is that in the end, we will discover that while it ain't pretty, we are probably overly pessimistic at valuing things now, just as we were overly optimistic earlier.
Sep 24, 2008 8:56 pm

Indy …hoping that is the correct assumption/s? The magnitude of the problem is obviously impacting more than the U.S. economy and not being pessimistic where do the problems surface next?

Sep 24, 2008 9:02 pm

Who knows.  All I do know is that we’ve faced bigger problems in the past and survived.

Sep 24, 2008 10:02 pm

[quote=Indyone]Who knows.  All I do know is that we’ve faced bigger problems in the past and survived.[/quote]

I’m giving bags of coffee beans to all my clients and signing them up for gun classes.  Sure we might survive, but you never know when BranchNet or other financial trading platforms will go haywire and decide that we are the greatest threat to the financial markets…you know how that story goes. 

edit: forgot to add the

Sep 24, 2008 10:16 pm
gvf:

[quote=Indyone]Who knows.  All I do know is that we’ve faced bigger problems in the past and survived.[/quote]

I’m giving bags of coffee beans to all my clients and signing them up for gun classes.  Sure we might survive, but you never know when BranchNet or other financial trading platforms will go haywire and decide that we are the greatest threat to the financial markets…you know how that story goes. 

  It's kind of funny.  For as nervous as I've been about these markets, most of my biggest clients are completely comfortable.  They just see it as another thing to deal with.   Here are some signs :   Investor sentiment in general is pretty negative = good Insider buying is at highest level since bottom in 2002 = really good Cash on the sidelines is at an extremely high level historically = really good Analysts optimism is starting to turn up = really good S&P earnings are expected to surprise in Q3 and Q4 = really good P/E ratios are at historically a fair value = really good Buffet bought into Goldman Sachs = good  
Sep 24, 2008 10:22 pm

I seem to remember hearing that the total mortgage market is $12T and that sub-prime is about 5-6% of the market.  Let’s say its 10% and you still “only” have $1.2T in sub-prime.  Remember that around half of that is current so you get a ballpark number of $600B. 

  Hammerin' Hank Paulson's US Hedge Fund starting with $700B of seed money sounds about right to me. 
Sep 24, 2008 10:24 pm

…and I do agree that someday we will look back on this and nervously chuckle at what Chicken Littles we all were during this time.  Yes, there are serious problems but fear is certainly causing many people to behave irrationally and make some very poor decisions.  I’ll include myself in that.

Sep 25, 2008 1:51 am

well we didn’t have Toyota, Honda, Lexus, Hundai, Kia, and Nissan. Let the American car makers fail like they should. They chose not to compete. They deserve to go down, as do the banks! The American car makers suck, and I doubt based on their ever decreasing market share they will ever recover. I feel sorry for the average joe who let the dumbass MBAs call the shots. They should have let the factory wokers run the car makers. Would’ve been alot further ahead.

  Sorry about the grammer. Had a few tonight.
Sep 25, 2008 5:28 pm

[quote=ezmoney]well we didn’t have Toyota, Honda, Lexus, Hundai, Kia, and Nissan. Let the American car makers fail like they should. They chose not to compete. They deserve to go down, as do the banks! The American car makers suck, and I doubt based on their ever decreasing market share they will ever recover. I feel sorry for the average joe who let the dumbass MBAs call the shots. They should have let the factory wokers run the car makers. Would’ve been alot further ahead.

  Sorry about the grammer. Had a few tonight.[/quote]       You should know something about the Asian car companies you mention. None, as in not one, is an innovator. Innovation takes risk. Risk is something these companies will never do. They are all about building a higher quality mousetrap, but never a new mousetrap. They invent nothing. They only clone. They let Ford, GM, and Chrysler take all the risk.   What's the big deal about innovation? Hmm? Chrysler made Billion dollar bets to create entire market segments ie  the SUV, and Mini Van. Soon, Japan as saw the success of these models they brought us their versions. Nothing new under the SUN. In fact fairly low quality clones. Similar to their first trip here with low quality cars.     Chrysler improved the Mini van again and again, giving it Stowaway seating, and remote control door on both sides. And again Chrysler was working at expanding the SUV market, which it did with it's Grand Cherokee. What did Japan do to innovate? Nothing! that's not part of their business plan. Meanwhile over at Ford it's engineering department wasn't asleep either. They came to market with a revolutionary forward looking multi billion dollar dice throw called the Ford Taurus. It took Honda and Toyota almost 12 years to unseat it as the best selling car in the world. Ford set the course and Japan followed. What else is new? GM then created another new market segment, the luxury full size SUV. Immediately Toyota countered with an Upscale Toyota Land Cruiser called a  Lexus LX 450. Dumbasses actually bought them. And on and on it goes.   The list goes on and on. Without the big three we will forever be stuck in 2008 when it comes to car technology. Ok, i'll give you that Subaru invented the crossover vehicle with the Outback. But wait a minute, Oh yeah, Subaru, an American company.